第一财经·2026-03-26 05:58Core Viewpoint - The pricing mechanism for lithium carbonate is currently misaligned, leading to potential disruptions in the lithium battery supply chain, as highlighted by the president of Tianqi Lithium, Xia Junchen [2]. Pricing Mechanism Issues - The current pricing rules differ across the lithium supply chain, with upstream miners and lithium salt plants often using futures prices for settlements, while downstream cathode material and battery manufacturers rely on spot market prices [2]. - This misalignment can cause profit squeezes in the midstream processing segment when the basis between futures and spot prices widens significantly [3]. - A calculation by Xia Junchen indicates that if futures prices remain higher than spot prices, the midstream segment bears the loss from the price difference, leading to production cuts from major cathode material companies [3]. Market Dynamics - China holds over 70% of the global lithium salt supply and consumption market, with more than 90% of cathode material production capacity, which should ideally provide it with pricing power in the global lithium battery supply chain [4]. - However, the industry is facing a situation where upstream and downstream players are not aligned in their pricing strategies, creating an unhealthy market dynamic [4]. Risk Mitigation Suggestions - Although the price gap between futures and spot prices has been narrowing, the industry should remain vigilant against similar risks in the future [5]. - Xia Junchen suggests the establishment of a diversified pricing system and a unified pricing mechanism that incorporates multiple pricing agencies to create a more comprehensive market pricing benchmark [5]. Current Developments - The industry is exploring more mature pricing mechanisms, with Tianqi Lithium adjusting its product pricing to align spot prices with either the Shanghai Steel Union's quality battery-grade lithium carbonate prices or the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's main contract prices for lithium carbonate [6].