“战时买黄金”不管用了？

Core Viewpoint - Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicts, gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven, has entered a bear market, primarily driven by a significant increase in retail investor participation in the precious metals market since the onset of the US-Iran conflict [1][2]. Group 1: Theories on Precious Metals Market Behavior - Three prevailing theories explain the current behavior of precious metals: 1. The pre-war surge in precious metal prices attracted many new retail investors, potentially altering trading dynamics to resemble risk assets rather than safe havens [2]. 2. Following substantial gains in precious metal positions at the end of 2025 and early 2026, increased uncertainty has led investors to lock in profits, resulting in selling pressure [2]. 3. Heightened market volatility has caused losses in other positions, particularly for hedge funds, prompting them to liquidate profitable positions, including gold, to meet liquidity needs [2][4]. Group 2: Performance Analysis of Precious Metals - Since the outbreak of the conflict, all precious metals have experienced declines: gold down 15%, silver down 25%, and platinum down 20%, while the S&P 500 index fell only 5%, indicating underperformance of precious metals relative to the broader market [4]. - The modest decline in the S&P 500 suggests that safe-haven sentiment has not been triggered, reinforcing the notion that recent declines in precious metals are residual effects of prior price surges [4]. - The lack of significant price increases in gold or other precious metals during the Russia-Ukraine conflict further supports the idea that the current situation may be a result of position liquidation rather than a flight to safety [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook on Precious Metals - The explanations provided do not negate the ongoing demand for precious metals as a hedge against currency devaluation, which is expected to persist as investors seek alternatives to debt monetization [5].