无惧外部波动！摩根大通朱锋：政策托底+内外协同，2026中国经济稳健前行

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights of Zhu Feng, Chief Economist of JPMorgan China, regarding China's economic outlook, focusing on the GDP growth target for 2026, the importance of domestic demand, and the impact of international geopolitical conflicts on the economy [1][3]. Economic Growth Target - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at a range of 4.5% to 5%, which reflects a downward adjustment from the previous year, aligning with the current economic realities and allowing for greater policy flexibility [3][4]. - Zhu Feng emphasizes that the adjustment is a recognition of the economic characteristics during the transformation phase, which often accompanies a slowdown in growth [4]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - Expanding domestic demand has been prioritized in government reports for two consecutive years, indicating a deepening understanding of the importance of consumption [5][6]. - The government aims to boost consumption through supportive policies, although challenges remain in achieving significant short-term impacts [5][6]. Effective Investment and Export - Effective investment is showing positive trends, particularly in infrastructure related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to support economic growth alongside exports [4][5]. - Zhu Feng notes that while external demand remains a crucial growth engine, effective investment is becoming increasingly important in stabilizing the economy [4]. Fiscal Policy Insights - The fiscal policy for this year is expected to remain expansionary, with a focus on investment, particularly in projects related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][6]. - Zhu Feng highlights that while direct measures to stimulate consumption exist, such as the 250 billion yuan for trade-in subsidies, the market anticipates more robust fiscal policies in the consumption sector [5][6]. International Trade and Geopolitical Impact - Zhu Feng points out that the government is increasingly aware of the need for balanced international trade in light of external pressures and uncertainties [6]. - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, have led to rising oil prices, but the direct impact on China is limited due to its diversified energy sources [8][9]. Oil Price Dynamics - The article discusses the potential implications of rising oil prices, with Zhu Feng estimating that a sustained increase could lead to a 0.8 percentage point rise in global inflation, affecting global consumption and production [9]. - Despite the challenges posed by high oil prices, Zhu Feng expresses confidence in China's ability to respond effectively through fiscal policy, even with limited monetary policy space [9].