世贸组织预测26年全球贸易增速放缓至1.9%

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is severely impacting global trade and economic growth, with potential long-term consequences for energy prices and food security [2][5][7]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Growth Projections - The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts a 4.6% year-on-year growth in global goods trade by 2025, driven by semiconductor and electronic device transactions related to generative AI, but growth is expected to slow to 1.9% in 2026 [4]. - In a high energy price scenario, where oil and LNG prices remain elevated, the growth rate could further decline to 1.4% [5]. - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a near-zero level of shipping traffic, which could force a slowdown in global trade by 2026 [2][8]. Group 2: Impact on Energy and Agriculture - Approximately 20% of global oil and LNG transportation passes through the Strait of Hormuz, with Japan relying on the Middle East for about 90% of its oil imports, raising concerns about energy supply disruptions [5]. - The blockade also affects agricultural production, as about one-third of global fertilizers are transported through the Strait, with countries like India, Thailand, and Brazil heavily dependent on imports from Gulf nations [7]. - The potential for rising food prices due to supply chain disruptions is significant, as Gulf countries rely on imports for a large portion of their staple foods [7]. Group 3: Service Trade and Economic Sentiment - The growth rate for global service trade is projected to be 4.8% in 2026, but could drop to 4.1% due to disruptions in maritime and air transport [7]. - The Middle East accounts for approximately 7.4% of global transport service exports, with over 40,000 flights canceled and a surge in transportation and insurance costs [7]. - Soft data indicating deteriorating economic sentiment is emerging, with Germany's economic sentiment index dropping to -0.5, the lowest since April 2025 [8].