多边机制还是大国机制？全球化的“分岔口”｜博鳌观察

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that regardless of whether the trade war will resurface, globalization is unlikely to return to its previous state, necessitating the establishment of a new international negotiation mechanism, which could either strengthen existing multilateral mechanisms or create a new one based on major power coordination, such as between China and the U.S. [1][4] Summary by Sections Forum Discussions - At the Boao Forum, discussions centered on the impact of the trade war and geopolitical competition on global trade patterns, with a consensus among most participants advocating for the strengthening of multilateral mechanisms [2][4] - Former U.S. Commerce Secretary Gutierrez expressed a minority view, suggesting that the global trade environment is largely shaped by the U.S. [2][4] Trade War Dynamics - The trade war has seen cumulative tariff increases exceeding 120% between the U.S. and China, leading to a "truce" that has persisted [3][4] - Despite the trade war, many forum participants believed that U.S. tariffs have not significantly impacted global trade due to mutual tariff impositions offsetting effects [6][9] Economic Policy and Trade Uncertainty - The current era is characterized by economic policies increasingly serving national strategic goals, with tariffs and export controls becoming regular tools rather than exceptions [7][8] - The trade war is reshaping global trade dynamics, leading to reduced predictability, supply chain restructuring, and varied regulatory policies affecting businesses differently [9][10] Multilateral vs. Major Power Mechanisms - There is a debate on whether to reinforce multilateral mechanisms like the WTO or to adapt to a new framework based on major power negotiations [12][14] - The WTO's influence is waning as major economies distance themselves from its rules, leading to a fragmented global trade system [14][16] Future Trade Landscape - Experts suggest that the trade landscape is evolving, with a need for the WTO to adapt to current realities, including enhancing trust and conflict resolution mechanisms [16][17] - The potential for new trade agreements amidst the trade war indicates a shift in how countries approach trade, with a focus on regional agreements and strategic partnerships [17][18]