全线跳水！霍尔木兹，突遭关闭！伊朗最新警告

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are significantly impacting market sentiment, leading to declines in European and U.S. stock indices, with predictions of oil prices potentially reaching $200 per barrel if the conflict persists [1][2][3]. Market Reaction - European stock markets opened lower, with major indices like the Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX 30 dropping over 1%. U.S. stock futures also fell, with the Dow Jones futures down 0.44% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.68% [2]. - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, warning against any attempts to navigate through it, which has heightened market fears [2][3]. Oil Price Predictions - Macquarie Group forecasts that if the conflict continues until June and the Strait remains closed, oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel. They also noted that if the Strait remains closed until the end of April, Brent crude could reach $150 per barrel [3][4]. - The report indicates a 40% probability of prolonged conflict and a 60% chance of resolution by the end of the month, emphasizing the significant impact on global oil supply and prices [4]. Supply Chain Impact - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing a supply shortfall of approximately 13.5 million barrels per day, with current transport levels at 1.5 million barrels per day compared to the normal 15 million barrels [4]. - Countries reliant on oil transported through the Strait, such as the Philippines, are facing severe energy security challenges, prompting the government to declare a national energy emergency [5].