中东两大铝业巨头遇袭，全球6%产能告急

Core Viewpoint - The recent attacks on aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE by Iran have raised concerns about the stability of aluminum supply from the Middle East, which accounts for approximately 10% of global aluminum supply [1][3]. Group 1: Incident Overview - Two major aluminum companies in the Gulf region confirmed attacks from Iran, resulting in injuries and property damage [1]. - Bahrain Aluminum Company reported that its facility was attacked on March 28, leading to two minor injuries and an ongoing assessment of property damage [3]. - Emirates Global Aluminum also confirmed significant damage to its facility in Abu Dhabi, with multiple injuries among Indian and Pakistani workers [3]. Group 2: Production Impact - Both affected companies are significant players in local aluminum production, with a combined capacity exceeding 6% of global total capacity [3]. - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have disrupted aluminum metal supply, causing fluctuations in aluminum prices [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that even if the situation stabilizes, the recovery of production will be challenging, requiring extensive equipment repairs and safety evaluations, which could take 6 to 12 months [4]. - The risk of permanent damage to Middle Eastern production capacity may provide a core driver for aluminum prices to strengthen independently [5]. - It is anticipated that the price of aluminum in the second quarter will trend upwards, with the main contract expected to range between 23,000 to 26,000 yuan per ton throughout the year [5].