中东最大铝企遇袭，A股这些公司手握产能

Core Viewpoint - The conflict in the Middle East has escalated from shipping disputes in the Strait of Hormuz to direct physical attacks on core industrial facilities, particularly aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE, leading to injuries and property damage [1]. Group 1: Impact of Attacks on Aluminum Industry - Two major aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE confirmed attacks by Iran, resulting in injuries and property damage, with Bahrain Aluminum Company reporting a 20% reduction in production due to previous shipping disruptions [1]. - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that the attacks were a retaliation against U.S. strikes on Iranian civilian facilities, indicating a significant escalation in the conflict [1]. - The physical damage to aluminum smelting facilities has long-term effects, with recovery and resumption of production potentially taking 6 to 12 months [1]. Group 2: Aluminum Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - Aluminum is a critical metal in modern industry, and disruptions in supply could lead to increased production costs in advanced manufacturing sectors such as automotive and aerospace [2]. - The Middle East, as the third-largest electrolytic aluminum production region, is projected to reach a capacity of 7.051 million tons per year by 2025, accounting for approximately 9% of global production, with the affected plants representing over 6% of global capacity [2]. - The region's aluminum industry relies heavily on imports for alumina, with a self-sufficiency rate of less than 34%, making it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Since the onset of the current U.S.-Iran conflict, LME aluminum prices peaked at $3,546.5 per ton, but have since declined due to concerns over inflation and economic slowdown, with year-to-date increases of 9.59% for LME and 3.99% for Shanghai futures [3]. - Predictions suggest that if the Middle East conflict continues into Q2 and oil prices fluctuate between $100 and $120 per barrel, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum could rise significantly, with energy costs potentially comprising 40-50% of total costs [4]. - The aluminum industry may face supply shortages due to potential preventive shutdowns in the Middle East, which could lead to price increases beyond previous expectations, supported by strong long-term supply-demand dynamics [4]. Group 4: Company Performance - Domestic aluminum companies are already benefiting from rising aluminum prices, with Tianshan Aluminum reporting a projected net profit of 2.2 billion yuan for Q1 2026, a year-on-year increase of 107.92% [6]. - The growth in profits is attributed to the partial production of a green low-carbon efficiency project and a 10% increase in electrolytic aluminum sales volume, alongside a 17% rise in sales prices [7].