三大因素压制全球股市，4月或仍承压

Group 1 - The global stock market is experiencing a significant downward trend, with the MSCI Global Index down 8% since the military strikes on Iran, marking the largest monthly decline since September 2022 [4] - The energy sector is the only one benefiting from rising oil prices, while other sectors, particularly materials like steel and non-ferrous metals, have seen declines of up to 13% [4][6] - Concerns about inflation and economic slowdown due to high oil prices are leading to fears of "stagflation," with WTI crude oil prices remaining around $100 per barrel [4][6] Group 2 - The capital goods sector has also faced a significant decline of 10%, with companies like GE Aerospace seeing a 17% drop in stock price [6] - The consumer sectors are not immune, with non-essential consumer goods down 10% and essential goods down 8%, reflecting fears of reduced consumer spending due to rising inflation [6] - AI-related stocks are under scrutiny for overheating, with the communication services sector down 10% and major players like Alphabet showing poor performance since 2026 [6][7] Group 3 - The financial sector has seen a 7% decline, with concerns about the quality of loans from non-bank institutions and funds, especially following the bankruptcy of Market Financial Solutions [9] - The Nikkei average has dropped significantly, with a 12% decline from its historical high, reflecting market concerns over the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on corporate earnings [10] - Analysts are adjusting their outlooks, with UBS increasing the probability of oil prices exceeding $120 per barrel to 30%, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [10]