美伊冲突持续升级，华尔街却嗅到了TACO回归迹象

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential return of the "TACO trade" (Trump Always Chickens Out) in the context of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, suggesting that Wall Street analysts are sensing a shift in market dynamics as President Trump delays military action against Iran to facilitate negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Wall Street analysts perceive a typical "TACO" dynamic where Trump signals escalation but retreats when faced with economic consequences, indicating a desire to end the conflict despite unclear paths to peace [1][3]. - Following Trump's announcement of delaying attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities due to "productive" negotiations, the S&P 500 index saw a rebound, reflecting market optimism [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - The article highlights that Wall Street is familiar with Trump's TACO strategy, referencing a previous instance in April when Trump announced tariffs, leading to market declines, followed by a pause in the plan that resulted in a significant market rebound, with the S&P 500 rising approximately 37% by the end of the year [3]. Group 3: Analytical Tools - Analysts have developed tools like the "Trump Pain Point Index" to predict potential policy shifts, which tracks various economic indicators and the president's approval ratings [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Despite the TACO strategy, there are doubts about whether Trump's unilateral actions can stabilize the market, as the reversal of the index ultimately depends on Iran's willingness to engage [5].