恒生科技指数逼近“关税底”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the escalating conflict in the Middle East on the Hang Seng Tech Index, highlighting a significant drop in the index and the broader implications for technology stocks amid changing monetary policy expectations and rising oil prices [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 30, the Hang Seng Tech Index opened lower and fell to 4619 points before rebounding slightly, closing at 4697 points with a trading volume of 32.3 billion HKD, approaching the "tariff bottom" of 4296 points from April 9, 2025 [3]. - The index has been in a continuous adjustment phase since October 2025, with the latest drop attributed to a reversal in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve and rising U.S. Treasury yields leading to capital outflows [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The core issue driving global market volatility is not just the rise in oil prices but the efficiency of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for energy and industrial materials, which is facing potential disruptions [6]. - The increase in energy prices is transitioning from a price shock affecting inflation and interest rate expectations to a supply shock, impacting global economic growth and production [6]. Group 3: Company Performance and Outlook - Major constituents of the Hang Seng Tech Index, including Xiaomi, SMIC, BYD, and Meituan, have reported their 2025 earnings, but concerns remain about first-quarter performance due to rising costs from high commodity prices [8]. - Analysts note that the current macroeconomic environment resembles that of early 2022, with geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices higher and concerns about a potential return of stagflation [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Despite short-term uncertainties, the long-term bullish factors supporting the market remain intact, and the index is viewed as being in a bottoming phase, suggesting that investors should prepare for potential rebounds [8]. - The article suggests that the safety window for left-side positioning has opened, with the current index valuation at historically low levels, indicating a favorable match with projected earnings growth for 2026 [9]. - It is recommended to adopt a phased investment approach, prioritizing leading companies with strong profit certainty while also considering high-elasticity stocks related to AI commercialization [9].