黄金，突发！美债，直线拉升！发生了什么？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of gold and U.S. Treasury bonds amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East, indicating a shift in market expectations towards a post-war recession scenario [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold has shown a strong bullish momentum, with spot gold recording three consecutive days of gains. Joseph Chai from RHB Retail Research notes that the bullish trend in COMEX gold futures is accelerating [1][3]. - On a recent trading day, gold prices broke through the resistance level of $4,500 per ounce, with the next target being $4,800 per ounce. However, there may be significant selling pressure near the downward-sloping 20-day simple moving average around $4,815.63 per ounce [3]. - Goldman Sachs remains bullish on gold, predicting that by the end of 2026, gold prices could reach $5,400 per ounce due to ongoing central bank purchases and anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. this year. They also caution about potential tactical downside risks, suggesting prices could dip to $3,800 per ounce if energy supply shocks worsen [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds Performance - U.S. Treasury yields have declined as concerns grow over the impact of Middle Eastern conflicts on economic growth. The two-year Treasury yield fell by 2.1 basis points to 3.806%, while the ten-year yield dropped by 1.9 basis points to 4.322% [1][6]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has raised fears of stagflation, with high oil prices potentially increasing inflation and dampening consumer demand, thereby affecting global growth. Analysts suggest a shift in market logic from "war-driven inflation" to "economic growth constraints" [6]. - The cost of insuring high-rated Asian debt is expected to see its largest monthly increase since 2023, with credit default swap rates rising by approximately 27 basis points in March, reflecting growing concerns about the economic impact of the Iranian conflict [7].