Economic Concerns & Policy Critique - The economy lost jobs in June, marking the first job loss since the pandemic [2] - Inflation is rising, and economic forecasts are declining [2] - A 50% tariff on India could alienate a crucial ally in the fight against China and Russia [8] International Relations & Security - The leaders of China, North Korea, and Russia clasping hands sends a clear signal to the West [6] - Building partnerships and alliances, such as the AUS agreement and the Quad, is crucial for containing China [10] - The current administration is alienating allies, such as South Korea, by raiding a Hyundai plant [11] - Sanctions against Russia and arming Ukraine are necessary to put pressure on Russia [12] Domestic Policy & Government Shutdown - Potential government shutdown due to disagreements on appropriations packages [13] - Concerns over program cuts to Medicaid and food programs [15] - The President's authority to spend money as he wishes is being questioned [16]

Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]

That's a big one. It's a big one. This president, we've been talking about this uh Department of War.So, we won the first world war. We won the Second World War. We won everything before that and in between.And then we decided to go woke and we changed the name to Department of Defense. So, we're going Department of War. This War Department, Mr.. President, just like America is back. Thank you for your leadership and your clarity. We're going to set the tone uh for this country.America first, peace through ...

It's great news what we've seen though, you know, looking at these 401k millionaires, 595,000 of them, a record high in the second quarter. The average balance up 8% from the previous quarter, $137,000 on average. But then the other part is 95% of the overall 401k investors didn't make any changes at all to their portfolios.That might have been fine if they were in a Target date fund and it was, you know, fulfilling their goals. But if they weren't and they just had it there cuz that's the kind of what they ...

According to new reporting from the Washington Post, the Trump administration is considering preventing transgender people from owning guns. This is in the wake of the shooting last week at a Minneapolis Catholic school. A spokesperson tells NBC News, quote, "The DOJ is actively evaluating options to prevent the pattern of violence we've seen from individuals with specific mental health challenges and substance abuse disorders." Joining us now, senior staff writer at The Trace and contributing writer at Rol ...

Do you remember the story the Wall Street Journal broke about a birthday card Donald Trump reportedly wrote and slash illustrated for Jeffrey Epstein. this card. So apparently body and revealing captured the nature of Donald Trump's friendship with a notorious sex offender that when the Wall Street Journal first reported on it um this book put together by Gain Maxwell for Epstein, Donald Trump was so mad he sued the Wall Street Journal for defamation.Well NBC is reporting today that the House Oversight Comm ...

Economic Indicators & Market Reaction - August新增就业岗位仅22,000个 [1] - 失业率小幅上升至4.3% [2] - 纽约时报报道，由于高利率和特朗普政府的关税等经济政策，经济自疫情高峰期以来一直在降温 [2] - 股市最初希望美联储降息而上涨，但随后因担心经济衰退而下跌，道琼斯指数下跌超过200点 [2] Policy Impact & Analysis - 报告认为，就业市场和更广泛的经济放缓是政策导致的，受到关税、移民政策和政府削减开支的影响 [3][4] - 特朗普政府的政策被指责为“自残行为”，与此前专家预测的软着陆（核心通胀率接近2%，经济增长率接近2.5%）背道而驰 [10][11] - 关税和移民政策导致经济放缓的同时，通货膨胀也在上升，对普通民众造成双重打击 [14] Job Market Details - 6月份劳动力市场减少了13,000个工作岗位，是自2020年12月以来的首次负增长 [2] - 前两个月的就业数据被下调了21,000个 [2] - 在过去的四个月里，平均每月新增就业岗位为29,000个 [12] - 如果不包括医疗保健等行业，建筑业和制造业等领域实际上已经损失了142,000个工作岗位 [13] Political Context & Credibility - 特朗普政府被指责歪曲经济数据，前劳工统计局局长因公布“真实数据”而被解雇 [2] - 特朗普声称至少一年内不会有“真实数据” [2] - 劳工统计局的数据收集方式没有改变，数据是真实的，但特朗普政府的政策是经济放缓的原因 [2][3]

I think that's a big one. I'll be honest. I think after winning a war for independence uh in 1789, George Washington established the war department and Henry Knox was his first secretary of war and this country won every major war after that to include World War I and World War II.Total victory, Mr. . President, as you said. Then 150 years after that, we changed the name after World War II from the Department of War to the Department of Defense in 1947.And as you pointed out, Mr. . President, we haven't won ...

Joining us now in a CNBC exclusive, Samsara CEO Sanj Biswas. Sanjit, good to see you. Um, I I want to start on something that you said on the call about customers turning to AI and the the fast payback ROI that they're seeing on your platform.Can you give some examples of the type of savings and how that's leading to increased uh product adoption. >> Absolutely. Well, John, thanks again for having me on.One great example of this is customers using data and artificial intelligence to just replan how they run ...

Is it your expectation that Congress will codify this name change in the law. >> I don't know, but we're going to find out. But I'm not sure they have to.Uh we're signing an executive order today. Uh but we're gonna find out. We're gonna see uh if they do.We're going with it. And we're going with it very strongly. ...