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$12 Billion Fund Chief Says Bitcoin Rally Coming Before Year-End
Yahoo Finance· 2025-11-06 15:55
Core Insights - The current retail environment in the crypto market is characterized by "maximum desperation," indicating a potential bottom rather than the end of the cycle [1] - The shift towards an institutionally driven market is viewed as a bullish element, with optimism for a rally into year-end and Q1 2026 [2] - The flush out of retail leverage-driven sentiment is nearing completion, suggesting a bullish reversal is imminent [3] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is at a depressive level, which is often a signal of a market bottom [1] - Recent liquidations and failures in yield protocols have contributed to this sentiment [1] Price Projections - Bitcoin is projected to reach between $150,000 and $200,000 by year-end, supported by strong fundamentals [4] - The BTC/Gold ratio has shown signs of bottoming, which historically precedes Bitcoin breakouts by 60–90 days [5] Market Structure - The current price action of Bitcoin aligns with a historic four-year cycle, suggesting a cycle top could occur in Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026 [5] - The next weekly cycle low for Bitcoin is either in or imminent, potentially leading to new all-time highs [6]
How Russian Darknet Markets Funneled $2B in Bitcoin Using Top-Tier Exchanges
Yahoo Finance· 2025-11-06 15:12
Core Insights - Russian darknet markets (DNMs) processed approximately $1.9 billion in Bitcoin from January to September 2025, highlighting the significant role of regulated crypto exchanges in laundering illicit funds [2][3][4] - The report by Global Ledger indicates that these funds were funneled through at least 20 centralized exchanges, which hold over 130 international licenses, demonstrating a complex network exploiting compliance weaknesses [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Darknet Market Activity - DNMs moved nearly $2 billion worth of Bitcoin in the first nine months of 2025, with Kraken facilitating the largest volume of illicit transfers at $1.3 billion [1][2] - Other notable exchanges included BlackSprut at $344 million and Omg!Omg! at $123.4 million [1] Compliance and Regulatory Issues - The analysis revealed that exchanges were exploited for deposits and withdrawals through third parties, often without their knowledge, leading to a total exchange exposure of $291 million [4][5] - Compliance processes are hindered by the sophisticated tactics employed by darknet actors, who bypass anti-money laundering checks through over-the-counter (OTC) and peer-to-peer (P2P) intermediaries [4][5][6] Transaction Methods and Trends - Darknet actors utilize multiple obfuscation layers, including "peel-chains" and long multi-hop paths, to mask the source of funds before they reach centralized exchanges [5][6] - Following sanctions against Russian exchange Garantex, there was a notable shift in darknet payment behavior, with major Russian-language marketplaces moving away from direct USDT deposits [9][10] Industry Response and Future Outlook - Global Ledger is preparing targeted disclosures for affected exchanges and regulators to enhance compliance and understanding of exposure to illicit activities [7][8] - Experts emphasize that the real challenge lies in internal compliance policies rather than technological limitations, as transaction monitoring systems are already advanced [8][9]
X @Mayne
Mayne· 2025-11-06 14:39
Proprietary Trading Drawbacks - Profit caps restrict traders on their best days and A+ setups [1] - Payout delays and denials create struggles, potentially requiring social media pressure for resolution [1] - Consistency rules act as an extra profit target, penalizing swing traders [2] - Hidden rules emerge unexpectedly or via 'risk' emails when profits are too high [2] - Equity-based drawdown calculations punish positive PnL due to volatility, hindering swing trading [2] - Weekend and overnight holding bans force intraday position churning, limiting swing trading [2] Breakout's Competitive Advantages - Breakout eliminates profit caps, payout delays, consistency rules, hidden rules, equity-based drawdowns, and holding bans [3] - Breakout offers simple rules and on-demand payouts [3] - Breakout is backed by Kraken, a major exchange [3]