Market Overview - On September 3, the industrial metals sector declined by 0.33% compared to the previous trading day, with Xinweiling leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.0, down 0.65% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Yian Technology (300328) with a closing price of 17.90, up 5.29% and a trading volume of 1,005,200 shares, totaling a transaction value of 1.788 billion [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) closed at 29.70, up 2.41% with a trading volume of 986,800 shares, totaling 2.944 billion [1] - Significant losers included: - Xinweiling (871634) with a closing price of 29.60, down 6.09% and a trading volume of 51,500 shares, totaling 159 million [2] - Electric Alloy (300697) closed at 14.81, down 5.97% with a trading volume of 210,000 shares, totaling 324 million [2] Capital Flow - The industrial metals sector experienced a net outflow of 1.796 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.349 billion [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors increased their positions [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Key stocks with significant capital flow include: - Zijin Mining (668109) with a net inflow of 137 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 42.95 million from retail investors [3] - China Aluminum (601600) had a net inflow of 1.26 billion from institutional investors, but a significant net outflow of 1.46 billion from retail investors [3] - Yian Technology (300328) saw a net inflow of 79.39 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 68.59 million [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [8] - Aluminum: Oscillating [10] - Aluminum alloy: Oscillating [13] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [16] - Lead: Oscillating [17] - Nickel: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23] - Stainless steel: Oscillating in the short - term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Report's Core View - Overall non - ferrous metals: Weak US dollar and the fermentation of reverse invoicing issues are driving up the prices of basic metals. In the medium and short - term, prices are supported but the weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions support prices [1]. - Copper: Macro factors and supply disruptions support prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the US copper tariff is a negative factor [7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Aluminum: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Aluminum alloy: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Zinc: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Lead: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Nickel: The market expects Indonesia's RKAB approval soon, so the price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and the industry needs to observe the raw material and macro factors [23]. - Stainless steel: The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the implementation of the peak season and inventory changes need attention [24]. - Tin: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - Information analysis: The Fed may cut interest rates, US GDP growth is better than expected, copper production has decreased, the spot premium has declined, and inventory has increased [7]. - Main logic: Macro factors and supply disruptions support copper prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the demand needs to be observed [7]. - Outlook: Copper may oscillate [8]. 3.2 Alumina - Information analysis: Spot prices have declined, some enterprises have reduced production due to environmental protection, and warehouse receipts have increased [8]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly, with opportunities for short - selling and reverse arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: The price and inventory of aluminum have changed, an Indonesian enterprise is expected to be put into production, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [10]. - Main logic: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Outlook: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [12]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information analysis: The price and spread of aluminum alloy have changed, the exchange has adjusted margins and price limits, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [13]. - Main logic: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Outlook: Short - term prices are oscillating at a low level, and there is room for recovery and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [15]. 3.5 Zinc - Information analysis: The spot discount and inventory of zinc have increased, and a smelter will conduct maintenance [15]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Outlook: Zinc prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. 3.6 Lead - Information analysis: The price, spread, and inventory of lead have changed, and the market transaction is light [16]. - Main logic: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Outlook: The lead price is expected to oscillate [19]. 3.7 Nickel - Information analysis: The inventory of nickel has increased, and there are many industry news items [19]. - Main logic: The market sentiment dominates the price, the industry fundamentals are weakening marginally, and short - term trading is recommended [23]. - Outlook: The nickel price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - Information analysis: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts has increased, and the production in Indonesia is normal [24]. - Main logic: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium - iron have changed, production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. - Outlook: The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. 3.9 Tin - Information analysis: The inventory and price of tin have changed, and a company will conduct maintenance [25]. - Main logic: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate, and the volatility may increase [25].

Group 1 - LME copper prices have returned to the psychological threshold of $10,000 per ton due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing tight global supply conditions [1] - This price breakthrough is seen as a realization of previous trading expectations, with the market shifting towards a new phase characterized by a price surge driven by both financial and commodity attributes, benefiting resource stocks through profit and valuation recovery [1] - International spot gold prices reached a historic high, briefly surpassing $3,500 per ounce [1] Group 2 - As of September 3, 2025, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Dongyangguang leading at a 5.82% increase, followed by Jiangxi Copper at 1.86% and Zhongjin Gold at 1.63% [3] - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) has seen continuous net inflows over the past week, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 31.8753 million yuan, totaling 108 million yuan, averaging a daily net inflow of 15.4082 million yuan [3] - The Nonferrous ETF Fund closely tracks the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, which selects 50 prominent securities in the nonferrous metals sector based on size and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [3] Group 3 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) accounted for 50.35% of the index, including Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum [4] - The Nonferrous ETF Fund includes various share classes, such as the onshore connection A: 021296, connection C: 021297, and connection I: 022886 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with the index rising by 8.59% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 5th among 31 sectors [2][14] - The price of precious metals has been supported by financial attributes due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has led to a collective rise in metals such as cobalt, copper, and rare earths [4][5] - The report emphasizes the potential for continued strength in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious and industrial metals [5] Summary by Sections Market Review (2025.8.18-2025.8.29) - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 8.59%, with small metals leading the rise at 23.81%, followed by metal new materials (7.69%), precious metals (6.76%), industrial metals (5.71%), and energy metals (4.41%) [2][14] Precious Metals - As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516 per ounce, up 3.97% over two weeks and 31.63% year-to-date; COMEX silver closed at $40.75 per ounce, up 7.18% over two weeks and 35.88% year-to-date [21][22] - The report notes that geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases are expected to support gold prices [23] Industrial Metals - LME copper closed at $9,805 per ton, up 1.91% over two weeks and 12.89% year-to-date; domestic copper averaged 79,310 yuan per ton, up 0.37% over two weeks and 8.20% year-to-date [29] - The report highlights strong demand for copper driven by global economic recovery and green energy investments [29] Small Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price reached 251,000 yuan per ton, up 24.26% over two weeks and 75.52% year-to-date; LME tin price was $34,950 per ton, up 3.99% over two weeks and 22.80% year-to-date [36] - The report indicates that supply-demand dynamics are tightening, particularly for tungsten and tin [37] Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index was 225.11, up 6.39% over two weeks and 37.44% year-to-date; praseodymium-neodymium oxide closed at 597,500 yuan per ton, up 10.96% over two weeks and 48.45% year-to-date [48] - The report discusses the impact of new regulations on rare earth mining and processing, which are expected to tighten supply [65] Energy Metals - As of August 29, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was 267,000 yuan per ton, up 1.33% over two weeks and 86.71% year-to-date; sulfuric acid cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 53,100 yuan per ton, up 2.12% over two weeks and 94.51% year-to-date [55] - The report notes strong demand for cobalt driven by battery production [55] Major Events - The report highlights the implementation of new regulations for rare earth mining and processing, which aim to optimize supply-side management and include imported minerals in total quantity control [65]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the projected decline in China's aluminum production in July 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% to 5.48 million tons [1] - Cumulative aluminum production in China from January to July 2025 reached 38.47 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 0.8% [1] - The report titled "2025-2031 China Aluminum Material Industry Market Development Potential and Investment Risk Forecast" by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the market trends and investment risks in the aluminum sector [1] Group 2 - The data source for the aluminum production statistics is the National Bureau of Statistics, with the information compiled by Zhiyan Consulting [2] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services for investment decisions [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a market shift where previously strong sectors like AI and TMT are experiencing significant pullbacks, while financial and resource sectors are performing relatively well, indicating a potential style switch in the market [1] - The mining ETF (159690) has seen a net inflow of over 20 million yuan in the last three trading days, reflecting increased investor interest in sectors with reasonable valuations and strong profit improvement expectations [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is currently viewed as having a reasonable valuation and profit matching, providing strong defensive and allocation value in the current market environment [2] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal industry has shown strong structural resilience, particularly in precious and energy metals, which have maintained high prosperity levels, making them key areas of market focus [3] - The energy metal sector has emerged as one of the 21 secondary industries showing signs of bottom reversal, indicating a steady recovery in industry prosperity [5] - Despite overall pressure on the upstream resource sector in the first half of 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry demonstrates strong anti-cyclical capabilities and growth resilience, making it a valuable area for ongoing market attention [7] Group 3 - Expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are likely to end the previous tightening monetary environment, which could boost global manufacturing activity and fixed asset investment recovery [9] - The recent increase in shipments of industrial machinery, generators, and primary metals indicates robust demand in traditional manufacturing, which is beneficial for the non-ferrous metal sector as it is a key industrial metal and raw material [9] - The mining ETF closely tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme Index, providing exposure to key metal resources such as copper, gold, rare earths, aluminum, and lithium, with top holdings including leading companies in the industry [9]

Group 1: Liquidity and Scale of Rare Earth ETF - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 2.35% and a transaction volume of 201 million yuan [3] - As of September 2, the scale of the Rare Earth ETF reached 8.573 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest share count for the Rare Earth ETF is 4.927 billion shares, also a new high since inception, and ranks first among comparable funds [3] Group 2: Fund Inflows and Performance - The Rare Earth ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 9 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 486 million yuan, totaling 2.783 billion yuan [3] - Over the past year, the net value of the Rare Earth ETF has increased by 113.75%, ranking 126th out of 2992 index equity funds, placing it in the top 4.21% [3] - Since its inception, the ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 41.25%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and the longest cumulative gain of 83.89% [3] Group 3: Industry Insights and Price Trends - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is currently 597,200 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 4.05% [4] - The recent implementation of interim measures marks the official start of supply-side reforms in the rare earth industry [4] - July saw a significant increase in magnetic material exports, with month-on-month and year-on-year growth of 75% and 6% respectively, indicating potential for further recovery in exports [4] Group 4: Key Stocks in the Rare Earth Sector - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index account for 62.15% of the index, with notable companies including Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth [3][6] - Northern Rare Earth has a weight of 13.22% and a price increase of 3.43%, while China Rare Earth has a weight of 5.63% and a price decrease of 2.21% [6] - Investors can also access rare earth investment opportunities through the Jiashi Rare Earth ETF linked fund (011036) [6]

Group 1 - The CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index (932365) decreased by 0.41% as of September 3, 2025, with component stocks showing mixed performance [2] - Silver and Nonferrous (601212) led the gains with an increase of 10.09%, while Feiya (000026) experienced the largest decline at 4.58% [2] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159233) fell by 0.53%, with a latest price of 1.13 yuan, but has seen a cumulative increase of 4.42% over the past two weeks, ranking 3rd out of 13 comparable funds [2] Group 2 - The Free Cash Flow ETF has a turnover rate of 3.95% and a trading volume of 5.0736 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 17.5566 million yuan over the past week [2] - The latest net inflow of funds into the Free Cash Flow ETF was 7.9184 million yuan, with a total of 38.3283 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [2] Group 3 - Since its inception, the Free Cash Flow ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 7.80% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 3 months, with an average monthly return of 4.07% [3] - The maximum drawdown since inception was 3.28%, with a recovery time of 12 days, indicating a relatively quick recovery compared to comparable funds [3] - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [3] Group 4 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index accounted for 57.03% of the index, including China National Offshore Oil (600938) and Wuliangye (000858) [4] Group 5 - The Free Cash Flow ETF includes various stocks with different weightings, such as Midea Group (000333) at 2.66% and China Shenhua (601088) at 2.64%, with some stocks experiencing slight declines [6]

Group 1 - The market has experienced increased volatility since September, with popular sectors like artificial intelligence and TMT undergoing corrections, while resource stocks have continued to strengthen [1] - The mining ETF (159690) opened higher on September 3, rising by 0.53% with a turnover rate exceeding 6%, indicating active trading [2] - Recent data shows that the mining ETF has seen a net inflow of nearly 21 million yuan over the past three trading days [2] Group 2 - The precious metals sector has achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit for two consecutive quarters, indicating strong fundamental support [2] - The energy metals industry has shown signs of bottom reversal, with improvements in revenue growth, net profit growth, and ROE over the last two quarters [2] - Despite overall pressure on the upstream resource sector in the first half of 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to exhibit strong anti-cyclical capabilities and growth resilience due to structural opportunities [3] Group 3 - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a general increase in precious metal prices [3] - The mining ETF closely tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme Index, providing exposure to key metal resources such as copper, gold, rare earths, aluminum, and lithium [3] - Resource stocks are currently among the best-matched sectors in terms of fundamentals and valuations, with price increases reflecting earnings elasticity due to rising prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a surge, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and improving demand, particularly in the rare earth and industrial metals markets [3][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) saw a price increase of over 1.8% as of September 3, with a trading volume exceeding 12 million yuan within the first 15 minutes of opening [1]. - The ETF attracted significant inflows of 75.6 million yuan over the past two days, reaching a new high of 207 million yuan in total assets as of September 2 [1]. - Key constituent stocks included silver, which hit the daily limit, while Western Gold and Zhongjin Gold rose by 5.81% and 4.79%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The industrial metals sector is benefiting from rising copper prices due to supply constraints, with a projected decrease of 52,500 tons in electrolytic copper production in September [3]. - The lithium market is facing oversupply, but high-cost production is being phased out, which may lead to price recovery [3]. - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market remains strong, supported by macroeconomic factors and supply disruptions [3]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is positioned for upward price movement due to low valuations and improving market conditions, with a potential "bull market" beginning [3][4]. - The strategic importance of metals like rare earths and lithium is highlighted in the context of global competition and domestic policy shifts aimed at optimizing production factors [4]. - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF provides diversified exposure to various metals, including copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), and rare earths (13.8%), which helps mitigate investment risks [4].