Core Insights - The mortgage REIT sector experienced significant declines, primarily driven by the poor performance of PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI), which saw a 33% drop in stock price, impacting the entire sector [19][21][27] - The declines were exacerbated by hotter-than-expected CPI/PPI data and the reporting of compressed gain-on-sale/loan margins and larger mortgage servicing rights (MSR) amortization by PMT and PFSI [20][27] - The valuation of PFSI was deemed excessively high prior to earnings, trading at an 80% premium to its current book value, which raised concerns about its sustainability [23][26] Mortgage REITs and BDCs Performance - A table of mortgage REITs and BDCs showed substantial declines in share prices, with notable drops including Two Harbors (TWO) down 13.69% and PennyMac (PMT) down 12.44% [16][17] - The overall sentiment in the mortgage REIT sector was negative, with many companies experiencing declines regardless of their individual fundamentals [20][27] Preferred Shares and Baby Bonds - The company has been shifting its portfolio towards preferred shares and baby bonds, which have historically provided strong performance on a risk-adjusted basis and have outperformed other sectors [28]

Group 1 - Top Wall Street analysts have revised their outlook on several key stocks, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - The article suggests that investors consider buying CALC stock based on analysts' recommendations [1]

Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment Corp. experienced high single-digit growth in its tangible book value in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year, alongside an increase in its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio [1] Group 1 - AGNC managed to grow its portfolio of MBS in the fourth quarter [1] - The company delivered high single-digit growth in its tangible book value compared to the year-earlier period [1]

Core Insights - AGNC Investment Corp. reported a fourth-quarter 2025 net spread and dollar roll income per common share of 35 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents and declining 5.4% from the previous year [1][8] - The company experienced a decline in average asset yield and reduced net interest spread, alongside a higher weighted average cost of funds, which negatively impacted results [2][11] - Despite these challenges, tangible net book value per share increased by 5.6% year-over-year, indicating a positive trend in portfolio value [6][8] Financial Performance - Adjusted net interest and dollar roll income available to common stockholders reached $457 million, up 12.8% from the year-ago quarter [2] - Comprehensive income per common share for the fourth quarter was 89 cents, compared to a comprehensive loss of 11 cents per share in the same quarter last year [3] - Net interest income (NII) was reported at $206 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 36.3%, while for the full year 2025, NII totaled $675 million, also below estimates [4] Cost and Yield Analysis - The average asset yield on AGNC's portfolio was 4.87% in Q4 2025, down from 5.02% in Q4 2024 [4] - The combined weighted average cost of funds increased to 3.10%, up from 2.89% in the previous year [5] - The average net interest spread decreased to 1.81%, down from 1.91% year-over-year [5] Portfolio and Investment Metrics - As of December 31, 2025, AGNC's investment portfolio totaled $94.8 billion, including $81.1 billion in Agency mortgage-backed securities [7] - The average actual constant prepayment rate for the investment portfolio was 9.7%, slightly up from 9.6% in the previous year [6] - The economic return on tangible common equity was 11.6%, a significant improvement from an economic loss of 0.6% in the year-ago quarter [6] Dividend Information - AGNC announced a dividend of 36 cents per share for the fourth quarter, with total dividends declared since its IPO amounting to $15.5 billion or $50.08 per share [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the author's long-term investment approach, focusing on REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, which began in high school in 2011 [1] - The author has recently combined long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts, indicating a strategy that balances risk and return [1] - The primary focus of the author's coverage on Seeking Alpha includes REITs and financials, with occasional insights on ETFs and other stocks influenced by macroeconomic trends [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AGNC reported comprehensive income of $0.89 per common share for Q4 2025, with an economic return on tangible common equity of 11.6% for the quarter, driven by lower interest rate volatility and tighter mortgage spreads [11] - The full-year economic return was 22.7%, reflecting a monthly dividend totaling $1.44 per common share and a $0.47 increase in tangible net book value per share [11] - As of late January, tangible net book value per common share was up about 4% for January, or 3% net of monthly dividend accrual [11] - The company ended Q4 with leverage of 7.2x tangible equity, down from 7.6x at the end of Q3 [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average leverage for Q4 was 7.4 times, compared to 7.5 times in Q3 [12] - Net spread and dollar roll income remained unchanged at $0.35 per common share, which includes a penny per share of expense related to year-end incentive compensation accrual adjustments [12] - The average projected life CPR of the portfolio increased 100 basis points to 9.6% at quarter end from 8.6% in the prior quarter [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Bloomberg Aggregate Agency Index was the best-performing fixed income sector in Q4, producing a total return of 8.6% for the year [6] - Agency MBS outperformed the Treasury Index by 2.3 percentage points, or 36% in 2025 [7] - The funding market for Agency MBS improved in response to the Fed increasing the size of its balance sheet and improving the functionality of its standing repo program [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AGNC is positioned to generate compelling, risk-adjusted returns with a substantial yield component for shareholders, leveraging favorable macro themes and a well-balanced supply and demand outlook for Agency MBS [10] - The company shifted its hedge mix toward a greater proportion of interest rate swaps, which is consistent with the current more accommodative monetary policy environment [13] - The company plans to operate with a greater share of swap-based hedges, particularly as short-term rates near the Fed's long-run neutral rate [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in a durable and attractive investment environment as mortgage spreads began to stabilize at historically attractive return levels [5] - The favorable performance of Agency MBS was attributed to the Fed's shift in monetary policy, lower interest rate volatility, and the resolution of uncertainties regarding GSE reform [8] - Management anticipates that the underlying fundamental and technical backdrop for Agency mortgage-backed securities will remain favorable and supportive of a positive outlook [10] Other Important Information - The company issued $356 million of common equity through its at-the-market offering program at a significant premium to tangible book value per share, bringing total accretive common equity issuances for the year to approximately $2 billion [14] - The asset portfolio totaled $95 billion at quarter end, up about $4 billion from the prior quarter [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about where you see spreads currently versus where you saw it in the fourth quarter? - Management indicated that mortgage spreads have entered a new range, with current coupon spreads to swaps in the 120-160 basis point range, and current coupon to Treasuries around 90-130 basis points [22][23] Question: How do you think about the risk or potential benefit that could get you to the high end or low end of those ranges? - Management noted that actions from the GSEs and potential changes in the Fed's balance sheet could positively impact spreads, while certain proposals could have negative consequences [39][40] Question: What would you do to address the affordability questions? - Management acknowledged the administration's efforts and suggested that maintaining spread stability is crucial for market participation [48] Question: How do you gauge your positivity on the investing environment right now for agency MBS? - Management expressed that while spreads are lower, they remain attractive by historical standards, and the upper end of the spread range is more certain than in previous years [52] Question: Would you adjust any of the hedges if the refi market was really going to accelerate? - Management indicated that asset selection and coupon composition will be critical in a rising prepayment environment, and they have strategies in place to manage prepayment risk [90][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AGNC reported comprehensive income of $0.89 per common share for Q4 2025, with an economic return on tangible common equity of 11.6% for the quarter, driven by a $0.60 increase in tangible net book value per share [12][5] - The full-year economic return was 22.7%, reflecting a total monthly dividend of $1.44 per common share and a $0.47 increase in tangible net book value per share [12][5] - As of late January, tangible net book value per common share was up about 4% for January, or 3% net of monthly dividend accrual [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average leverage for Q4 was 7.4x, down from 7.5x in the previous quarter, with a leverage of 7.2x at the end of Q4 [12][13] - Net spread and dollar roll income remained unchanged at $0.35 per common share for the quarter [12][13] - The average projected life CPR of the portfolio increased to 9.6% at quarter end from 8.6% in the prior quarter, with actual CPRs averaging 9.7% for the quarter [12][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Bloomberg Aggregate Agency Index was the best-performing fixed income sector in Q4, producing a total return of 8.6% for the year [7] - Agency MBS outperformed the Treasury Index by 2.3 percentage points, or 36% in 2025 [7][8] - The demand for Agency MBS is expected to remain strong, with GSE purchases potentially consuming about half of the year's supply [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AGNC is positioned to generate compelling, risk-adjusted returns with a substantial yield component for shareholders, focusing on the favorable macro themes for Agency mortgage-backed securities [11] - The company plans to maintain a greater share of swap-based hedges in its hedge mix, particularly as short-term rates approach the Fed's long-run neutral rate [17] - The strategy includes opportunistically shifting the hedge mix toward a greater proportion of interest rate swaps to benefit from additional rate cuts [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in a durable and attractive investment environment as mortgage spreads stabilize at historically attractive levels [6][9] - The favorable macroeconomic backdrop is expected to continue, with potential further actions by the administration to improve housing affordability [10] - Management highlighted the importance of spread stability for generating attractive returns and indicated that the current environment is more favorable compared to previous years [53] Other Important Information - The company issued $356 million of common equity through its at-the-market offering program at a significant premium to tangible book value per share, bringing total accretive common equity issuances for the year to approximately $2 billion [15] - The asset portfolio totaled $95 billion at quarter end, up about $4 billion from the prior quarter, with 76% of assets having favorable prepayment attributes [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about where you see spreads currently versus where you saw it in the fourth quarter? - Management indicated that mortgage spreads have entered a new range, with current coupon spreads to swaps in the 120-160 basis point range, and current coupon to Treasuries around 110 basis points [22][24] Question: How do you think about the risk or potential benefit that could get you either to the high end or low end of those ranges? - Management noted that actions from the GSEs and potential changes in the Fed's balance sheet could positively impact spreads, while certain proposals could have negative consequences [38][40] Question: What would you do to address the affordability questions? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining spread stability and suggested that the GSEs should focus on decisions based on the economics of the mortgage market [48][49] Question: How do you gauge your positivity on the investing environment right now for Agency MBS? - Management expressed that while spreads are lower, they remain attractive by historical standards, and the current environment is more stable than in previous years [51][53] Question: Would you adjust any of the hedges if it looked like the refi market was really going to accelerate? - Management indicated that asset selection and the composition of the portfolio will be critical in a rising prepayment environment, and they would consider adjusting hedges accordingly [90][92]

AGNC Investment (NasdaqGS:AGNC) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 27, 2026 08:30 AM ET Speaker7Good morning, and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp.'s Fourth Quarter 2025 shareholder call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch-tone phone. To withdraw your questi ...

© 2026 AGNC Investment Corp. All Rights Reserved. 2025 STOCKHOLDER PRESENTATION Q4 JANUARY 27, 2026 THE PREMIER AGENCY RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE REIT IMPORTANT NOTICES Safe harbor statement under the private securities litigation reform act of 1995 This presentation contains statements that, to the extent they are not recitations of historical fact, constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the "Reform Act"). All such forward-looking state ...

Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment reported quarterly earnings of $0.35 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.37 per share, representing a -5.41% earnings surprise [1]. Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $206 million for the quarter ended December 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 36.28%, compared to year-ago revenues of $115 million [2]. - Over the last four quarters, AGNC Investment has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once [2]. Stock Performance - AGNC Investment shares have increased approximately 10.5% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1% [3]. Future Outlook - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, including current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters [4]. - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.37 on $341.77 million in revenues, and $1.56 on $1.67 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7]. Industry Context - The REIT and Equity Trust industry, to which AGNC belongs, is currently in the bottom 34% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8].