The Buy Thesis - STAG Industrial (STAG) is positioned for significant growth in AFFO/share, with organic growth projected at 3%-5% and higher cap rates making acquisitions and developments immediately accretive [1][2] Industrial Real Estate Environment - The industrial real estate landscape is evolving, with leasing dynamics favoring landlords and rental rates surging by up to 50% from 2021 to 2024 [3] - A wave of new industrial properties is being developed, particularly large logistics facilities, leading to a national vacancy rate of over 7%, which aligns with historical norms [4][5] - Existing leases are still below market rates, with STAG signing new leases at rates 38.1% higher than expiring leases [6][9] Leasing Dynamics - Market asking rents have stabilized, with cash rent changes of +27.2% in Q3 2025 and +16.3% in Q4 2025 [7] - STAG's same-store NOI growth is expected to be around 3.5% in 2026, contributing approximately $22 million annually to AFFO/share growth [11][13] Transaction Volumes and Cap Rates - Cap rates for industrial properties have risen to the mid-6% range, unlocking acquisition opportunities for REITs, with STAG's acquisition guidance for 2025 set at $350-$500 million [15][16] - STAG anticipates a return to average acquisition volumes of around $700 million in 2026, with a favorable spread of 75 basis points on cap rates [17][18] Developments - STAG has a healthy development pipeline, with several projects expected to deliver in late 2025 or early 2026, targeting yields of 7% or higher [20][23] - The total in-construction pipeline includes properties totaling approximately 1,259,293 square feet [22] Summary of Growth Levers - STAG is projected to achieve $0.19 of AFFO/share accretion, leading to an expected AFFO of $2.13 per share in 2025, representing a growth rate of about 9% [24][25] - The breakdown of accretion includes $22 million from same-store NOI growth, $11 million from acquisitions, and $2 million from developments [26] Conclusion - STAG is viewed as a strong investment opportunity with a projected annual return of 13% based on a 4% dividend yield and a favorable growth outlook [34][35]

Group 1 - STAG Industrial is positioned for approximately 9% annual growth in AFFO/share, benefiting from a favorable industrial real estate environment and increased acquisition activity [1][2][24] - The industrial real estate landscape is experiencing a shift, with market rental rates surging up to 50% from 2021 to 2024, leading to a balanced leasing environment as vacancy rates rise to over 7% [3][4][5] - STAG is signing new leases at rates 38.1% higher than expiring leases, indicating significant potential for revenue growth as legacy leases roll over [6][9] Group 2 - Cap rates for industrial properties have risen into the mid-6% range, unlocking acquisition opportunities for STAG, with a projected acquisition volume of $350-$500 million for 2025 and an anticipated increase to around $700 million in 2026 [14][16][17] - STAG's developments are also expected to contribute positively, with a pipeline of projects that are anticipated to yield around 7% to 9.3% upon stabilization, further enhancing AFFO growth [23][24] - The company is expected to achieve an additional $0.19 of AFFO/share accretion, with a consensus estimate of $2.13 per share of AFFO in 2025, reflecting strong growth potential [24][25][26]

Dividend Announcement - The Board of Directors of STAG Industrial, Inc. declared a dividend of $0.3875 per share for the first quarter of 2026, increasing the annual dividend rate from $1.49 to $1.55 per share and shifting from monthly to quarterly dividends [1] - The record date for the first quarter dividend is March 31, 2026, with a payment date of April 15, 2026 [1] Future Dividend Schedule - The Company plans to announce future quarterly dividends in late April, July, October, and February for the respective quarters, contingent upon Board approval [2] Company Overview - STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on acquiring, developing, owning, and operating industrial properties across the United States [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the Company's portfolio includes 601 buildings in 41 states, totaling approximately 119.2 million rentable square feet [3]

Core Viewpoint - STAG Industrial, Inc. will release its fourth quarter and full year 2025 operating and financial results on February 11, 2026, after market close, followed by a conference call on February 12, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time [1]. Company Overview - STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition, development, ownership, and operation of industrial properties across the United States [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company's portfolio includes 601 buildings located in 41 states, encompassing approximately 119.2 million rentable square feet [3]. Conference Call Details - The conference call can be accessed live via phone at (877) 407-4018 for domestic callers and (201) 689-8471 for international callers [2]. - A replay of the call will be available shortly after it concludes, accessible at (844) 512-2921 for domestic callers and (412) 317-6671 for international callers, with the passcode 13757743 [2]. - Interested parties can also listen to a simultaneous webcast of the conference call on the Investor Relations section of the company's website [3].

Core Viewpoint - STAG Industrial is currently 28% undervalued compared to its NAV of $51.2, indicating a strong investment opportunity [1] Group 1: Valuation - STAG Industrial is relatively undervalued when compared to its peers in the industry [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - STAG reported relatively strong financial results for Q3, contributing to its attractiveness as an investment [1]

Core Insights - David A. Johnson is the founder and principal of Endurance Capital Management, specializing in various investment vehicles including stocks, bonds, options, ETFs, REITs, real estate, closed-end funds, hedge funds, and private credit [1] Group 1 - David A. Johnson has over 30 years of experience in investing and holds a Master of Science (MS) Degree in Finance with a concentration in Investment Analysis from Boston University [1] - He also possesses a Certificate in Financial Planning and an MBA from Fordham University [1]

Core Viewpoint - STAG Industrial is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on single-tenant warehouses and distribution centers, positioning itself well within the growing e-commerce and logistics sectors [1][5]. Financial Performance - STAG reported a Funds From Operations (FFO) per share of $0.65 for Q3, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.63, indicating strong operational cash generation [3][5]. - The current stock price is $38.46, with a slight decrease of 0.25% today, and a trading range between $38.17 and $38.64 [4]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $7.18 billion and a trading volume of 400,980 shares, reflecting its solid presence in the market [4]. - Analyst Nicholas Thillman from Robert W. Baird set a price target of $39 for STAG, suggesting a potential upside of about 1.27% from its current trading price [2][5]. Volatility and Growth Potential - Over the past year, STAG's stock has experienced a high of $39.01 and a low of $28.61, indicating volatility but also potential for growth [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core FFO per share was $0.65 for the quarter, an increase of 8.3% compared to last year [8] - Core FFO guidance for the year has been increased to a range of $2.52 to $2.54 per share, a $0.03 increase at the midpoint [3][11] - Same-store cash NOI grew 3.9% for the quarter and 3.5% year to date [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company commenced 22 leases totaling 2.2 million square feet, generating cash and straight-line leasing spreads of 27.2% and 40.6%, respectively [8] - Retention for the quarter was 63.4% and 78% for the year [8] - Cash leasing spreads for 2025 are approximately 24%, while for 2026, they are expected to be between 18% and 20% [4][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - National vacancy rates are expected to be around 7% for the next two to three quarters, with an anticipated improvement in the latter half of next year [3] - The company has seen an increase in acquisition opportunities, with a total acquisition volume of $101.5 million for the third quarter [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on both acquisitions and development, with a bullish outlook on development due to improving demand [36][88] - A record amount of square footage is expiring in 2026, with 52% of the expected leasing already addressed [4] - The company is actively engaging with tenants to secure renewals ahead of lease expirations [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that industrial fundamentals remain stable and are improving, with increased leasing demand [3] - The company is optimistic about the stability in the market and expects further improvements in market rent growth [18] - Management highlighted the importance of tenant engagement and commitment to their spaces, which has contributed to leasing success [4][16] Other Important Information - The company refinanced a $300 million term loan, extending its maturity to March 15, 2030, with a fixed interest rate of 1.7% until February 2026 [9] - Liquidity at quarter end was $904 million, with low leverage at 5.1 times net debt to annualized run-rate adjusted EBITDA [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the leasing progress for 2026? - The majority of leasing activity is driven by renewals, with 95% being renewals and 5% new leasing [15] Question: Can you discuss the dynamics across your markets? - The company has not experienced the same volatility as the top five U.S. markets, maintaining occupancy rates better than others [18] Question: What is the outlook for cash leasing spreads? - The company is guiding to 18% to 20% cash leasing spreads for next year, down from 24% this year [26] Question: How is the company approaching development given the improving demand? - The company is bullish on development and is careful with underwriting, aiming for at least a 7% going-in yield [36] Question: What has changed regarding acquisition forecasts? - The company noted stable interest rates and a more stable macroeconomic environment, leading to increased seller engagement [42] Question: Are there any known move-outs for 2026? - There are no material known move-outs, with active negotiations ongoing for large tenants [66]

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION UNAUDITED THIRD QUARTER 2025 Forward-Looking Statements This supplemental information package contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) intends such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of ...

分组1 - Stag Industrial (STAG) reported quarterly funds from operations (FFO) of $0.65 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.63 per share, and up from $0.60 per share a year ago, representing an FFO surprise of +3.17% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $211.12 million for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.48%, compared to year-ago revenues of $190.74 million [2] - Stag has outperformed consensus FFO estimates three times over the last four quarters and topped consensus revenue estimates four times in the same period [2] 分组2 - The stock's immediate price movement will depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and future FFO expectations [3] - Stag shares have increased by approximately 12.7% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 17.2% [3] - The current consensus FFO estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.64 on revenues of $211.3 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.50 on revenues of $833.43 million [7] 分组3 - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the REIT and Equity Trust - Other sector is currently in the top 35% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook for stocks in this category [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5] - The estimate revisions trend for Stag was mixed ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market [6]