SUPPLEMENTAL FINANCIAL PRESENTATION January 29, 2026 Q4 2025 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS SAFE HARBOR The forward -looking statements included in this presentation are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical facts, which address activities, events, or developments that we expect or anticipate will or may occur in the future, including statements regarding market share gains, positive customer trends, new s ...

分组1 - Tractor Supply (TSCO) reported quarterly earnings of $0.43 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.46 per share, and showing a slight decrease from $0.44 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of -7.37% [1] - The company posted revenues of $3.9 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, which was 2.74% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but an increase from $3.77 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Tractor Supply has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] 分组2 - The stock has gained approximately 10.3% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.9% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.37 on revenues of $3.69 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.32 on revenues of $16.66 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Retail - Miscellaneous is currently in the top 25% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - Tractor Supply Co. has provided its financial guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting earnings per share and net sales growth, alongside plans for store expansion and capital investments [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Guidance - The company projects earnings in the range of $2.13 to $2.23 per share for fiscal 2026 [1]. - Net sales growth is expected to be between 4 to 6 percent, with comparable store sales growth anticipated at 1 to 3 percent [1]. Group 2: Analyst Expectations - Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $2.31 per share, with revenue growth of 6.29 percent, reaching approximately $16.60 billion for the year [2]. Group 3: Capital Plans - The company plans to open around 100 new Tractor Supply stores in 2026 [2]. - Ongoing initiatives include Project Fusion remodels, garden center transformations, and the completion of its 11th distribution center [2]. - Continued investments will be made in both store and digital platforms [2]. Group 4: Market Performance - In pre-market trading, Tractor Supply Co. shares are priced at $52.00, reflecting a decrease of $3.14 or 5.69 percent [3].

Financial Performance - Fourth quarter net sales increased by 3.3% to $3.90 billion from $3.77 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by new store openings and growth in comparable store sales [4]. - Comparable store sales rose by 0.3%, compared to an increase of 0.6% in the prior year's fourth quarter, reflecting comparable average ticket growth of 0.3% [4]. - Gross profit for the fourth quarter increased by 3.0% to $1.37 billion, with a gross margin rate of 35.1% compared to 35.2% in the prior year's fourth quarter [5]. - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased by 6.0% to $1.07 billion, representing 27.5% of net sales, up from 26.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024 [6]. - Operating income decreased by 6.5% to $297.7 million from $318.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 [7]. - Net income decreased by 3.8% to $227.4 million, with diluted EPS of $0.43, down from $0.44 in the fourth quarter of 2024 [8]. - Fiscal year 2025 net sales increased by 4.3% to $15.52 billion, with comparable store sales growth of 1.2% [10]. - Net income for the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, was $1,096,087, a slight decrease from $1,101,240 for the same period in 2024 [27]. - Comparable store sales increased by 1.2% for the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, compared to a 0.2% increase in the previous year [33]. Store Expansion and Capital Expenditures - The company plans to open approximately 100 new Tractor Supply stores in fiscal year 2026, continuing Project Fusion remodels and garden center transformations [16]. - The company opened 99 new stores during the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, compared to 80 new stores in the previous year, marking a growth of 23.75% [33]. - Capital expenditures for new and relocated stores totaled $376.0 million for the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, compared to $241.2 million in 2024, representing a 55.9% increase [36]. Shareholder Returns and Cash Flow - The company returned a total of $848.5 million of capital to shareholders in fiscal 2025 through share repurchases and dividends [13]. - Cash flows from operating activities for the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, were $1,635,258, an increase from $1,420,835 in the prior year [31]. - The company repurchased shares at a cost of $360,991, down from $566,383 in the prior year, indicating a reduction of approximately 36.3% [33]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $10,933,679 as of December 27, 2025, compared to $9,805,485 as of December 28, 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 11.5% [29]. - Total liabilities increased to $8,352,386 as of December 27, 2025, from $7,535,151 as of December 28, 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 10.9% [29]. Inventory and Transaction Value - The average inventory per store increased to $1,116.3 thousand for the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, compared to $1,063.7 thousand in the previous year [33]. - The average transaction value for the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, was $60.00, a slight decrease from $60.20 in the previous year [33]. Future Guidance - Fiscal year 2026 guidance includes net sales growth of 4% to 6% and diluted EPS of $2.13 to $2.23 [16].

Core Insights - Tractor Supply (TSCO) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.47 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.8% [1] - Anticipated revenues for the quarter are projected to be $4.01 billion, which represents a 6.2% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.1% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation by analysts [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions and have shown a strong correlation with short-term stock performance [3] Key Metrics Projections - Analysts estimate that the 'Number of stores - Petsense' will reach 209, up from 206 year-over-year [5] - The total 'Number of stores' is projected to be 2,596, compared to 2,502 in the previous year [5] - The 'Number of stores - Tractor Supply' is expected to reach 2,387, an increase from 2,296 year-over-year [5] Sales and Footage Estimates - The consensus for 'Sales per selling square foot' is estimated at $98.26, up from $96.50 year-over-year [6] - Analysts project 'Total Selling Square Footage' to be 41 million square feet, compared to 39 million square feet last year [6] New Store Openings - The estimated 'New stores opened - Tractor Supply' is projected to be 21, down from 26 in the same quarter last year [7] - For 'New stores opened - Petsense', the estimate is 3, compared to 4 year-over-year [7] Stock Performance - Tractor Supply shares have increased by 9.4% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which saw a 0.4% increase [7] - TSCO holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's investment strategy, focusing on medium-term investing in growth stories and identifying catalysts for value unlocking [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author emphasizes a medium-term investment approach, targeting ideas with catalysts that can drive upside potential or short selling in the presence of downside catalysts [1]. - The author prefers investing in growth stories that are available at reasonable prices, indicating a focus on value [1]. Group 2: Sector Preferences - The author identifies as a generalist but has a strong background in analyzing the industrial, consumer, and technology sectors, where higher conviction in investments is noted [1].

Core Viewpoint - Tractor Supply's fourth-quarter results may be softer than expected due to unfavorable weather conditions, but management's optimistic outlook for 2026 supports a bullish case for the company [1][2]. Group 1: Fourth Quarter Performance - The company reported $3.7 billion in net sales for the third quarter, reflecting a 7.2% year-over-year increase, with comparable store sales rising by 3.9% [3]. - Management provided a wide range for fourth-quarter comparable store sales growth, estimating an increase between 1% and 5% [3]. - The CEO indicated that cold weather significantly influences sales, with severe winter conditions typically benefiting the company's performance [4]. Group 2: Weather Impact - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported unusually warm weather in October and November, with November being the fourth-warmest on record and December ranking as the fifth-warmest in 131 years [5]. - A mild winter could lead to weaker demand for cold-weather items, potentially impacting fourth-quarter results [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - Management expressed confidence in 2026, expecting comparable store sales growth to exceed the weaker levels anticipated for the first half of 2025, driven by transaction count growth and positive average ticket trends [7][8]. - The company plans to open approximately 100 new stores in 2026, an increase from about 90 in 2025, which is expected to enhance growth prospects [9]. Group 4: Investor Considerations - Investors should monitor management's commentary on 2026 during the fourth-quarter results announcement, particularly regarding expectations for revenue growth and comparable store sales acceleration [10]. - Despite potential softness in fourth-quarter results, if weather is identified as the primary factor, it may not indicate poor business performance [11].

Core Insights - Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is expected to report an increase in both revenue and earnings for Q4 2025, with revenue estimated at $4.04 billion, reflecting a 7% year-over-year growth [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 47 cents, indicating a 6.8% rise compared to the previous year [2][9] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is set at $4.04 billion, which represents a 7% increase from the same quarter last year [1][9] - The EPS estimate remains unchanged at 47 cents, showing a 6.8% increase from the year-ago period [2][9] Factors Influencing Q4 Results - TSCO is entering Q4 with strong momentum in its core consumable, usable, and edible (C.U.E.) categories, which are crucial for the business [3] - Customer engagement is robust, with positive transaction trends supported by loyalty-driven repeat purchases and stable rural consumer demand [3] - Demand for everyday needs-based categories such as livestock and animal care is expected to drive comparable sales growth [3] Weather Impact - The company's performance in Q4 is anticipated to be significantly influenced by winter weather patterns, which typically increase demand for heating products and winter workwear [4] - TSCO is prepared to capitalize on favorable weather conditions with inventory depth and targeted merchandising strategies [4] Omnichannel and Loyalty Investments - Ongoing investments in Final Mile delivery, direct sales, and omnichannel fulfillment are expected to enhance top-line performance [5] - Digital sales trends are projected to improve, with store-based fulfillment being a key differentiator [5] - Loyalty programs and community events are likely to drive customer traffic and reinforce loyalty during the holiday season [5] Margin Pressures - Despite strong demand, TSCO is expected to face margin pressures due to tariff-related costs and higher transportation expenses [6] - SG&A expenses are projected to rise by 8.2% year-over-year, with the SG&A expense rate increasing by 40 basis points to 24% [7][9] - Management is focused on maintaining disciplined pricing and cost controls while balancing long-term growth initiatives [6] Valuation and Stock Performance - TSCO stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.80X, which is above the industry average of 18.90X but below its five-year high of 27.91X [11] - Over the past three months, TSCO shares have decreased by 3.5%, contrasting with the industry's growth of 7.6% [12]

Core Insights - Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) was initially perceived as an unattractive investment due to its normal retail characteristics, stretched valuation, and low growth potential [1] Company Analysis - The analysis indicates that TSCO may not stand out as a compelling investment opportunity within the retail sector [1] - The company is characterized as a "normal" retailer, lacking unique appeal [1] Valuation and Growth - The valuation of TSCO is described as stretched, suggesting that the stock may be overvalued relative to its growth prospects [1] - The growth potential of TSCO is considered low, which may deter value investors looking for significant returns [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tesco's share price has entered a correction phase, declining by 11% from its peak in November last year, indicating a significant pullback in its stock performance [1] Company Summary - The share price of Tesco was trading at 425p on Wednesday, down from an all-time high of 481p [1]