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Super Micro Computer: A Contrarian AI Play
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-12 10:30
Super Micro Computer ( SMCI ) ’s share price crashed 17% earlier this month when the company said, based off of its preliminary (unaudited) results, that it badly missed its own top-line guidance. Last week, Super Micro Computer submitted its full earnings sheet which causedAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SMCI, NVDA, AMD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving ...
SMCI 3.0: The Next Upcycle In H2
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-09 15:00
Core Insights - Supermicro (SMCI) reported a Q3 earnings miss, with gross margins declining to 9.7% and earnings per share (EPS) nearly halved sequentially, yet the stock maintained a key support level at $30 [1] Company Analysis - Leadership & Management: Supermicro has a proven track record in scaling businesses, demonstrating smart capital allocation and insider ownership, alongside consistent revenue growth and credible guidance [1] - Financial Health: The company shows sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow, a strong balance sheet, and a long-term survival runway while avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness [1] Market Positioning - Competitive Positioning: Supermicro benefits from a strong technology moat and first-mover advantage, with network effects driving exponential growth and market penetration in high-growth industries [1] Investment Methodology - Valuation: The analysis includes revenue multiples compared to peers and discounted cash flow (DCF) modeling, ensuring downside protection with significant upside potential [1]
Super Micro Computer: Show Me The Growth (Rating Upgrade)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-08 16:52
Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: SMCI ) (NEOE: SMCI:CA ) achieved a "V-shaped" recovery, but the shape is upside down. The biggest hurdle preventing the stock from going higher is no longer its SEC compliance issues. Investors are concerned about both macro and microI'm specialized in fundamental equity research, global macro strategy, and top-down portfolio construction. I graduated from UCLA with a degree of Business Economics and UMich Ross School of Business with a Master of Accounting. I'm a senio ...
Super Micro Computer Q3: The Less-Discussed Topics (Rating Downgrade)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-08 15:07
My last coverage on Super Micro Computer, Inc . ( SMCI ) was published back in March 2025. That article was titled “Super Micro Computer: Bears Need To Check Out Its Inventory (Rating Upgrade).” It As you can tell, our core style is to provide actionable and unambiguous ideas from our independent research. If your share this investment style, check out Envision Early Retirement. It provides at least 1x in-depth articles per week on such ideas.We have helped our members not only to beat S&P 500 but also avoi ...
Super Micro: Now You Really Need To Ignore The Short-Term Noise
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-08 13:00
JR Research is an opportunistic investor. He was recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst. He was also recognized by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP. He identifies attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by robust price action to potentially generate alpha well above the S&P 500. He has also demonstrated outperformance with his picks. He focuses on identifying growth investing opportunities that present the most attracti ...
Super Micro Computer Q3 Earnings Review: Uninvestable Might Be An Understatement
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-07 19:11
As we had predicted in our previous coverage on the stock, Super Micro Computer, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: SMCI ) early-year upsurge was poised to dissipate. Recall that the stock had more than doubled in the two weeks following itsAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (ot ...
Why Super Micro Stock Is Sinking Today
The Motley Fool· 2025-05-07 18:05
Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer's Q3 2025 earnings report disappointed investors, leading to a significant drop in its stock price despite overall market gains [2][6]. Financial Performance - Supermicro reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.31 on revenue of $4.60 billion, missing Wall Street expectations of $0.50 EPS and $5.42 billion in revenue [2]. - Year-over-year sales growth was 19%, but net income fell sharply from $402 million in Q3 2024 to $109 million in Q3 2025 [3]. - Gross margins decreased from 15.5% to 9.6% during the same period, indicating shrinking profitability [3]. Forward Guidance - The company projected Q4 adjusted EPS between $0.40 and $0.50, with sales expected to be between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, which is below Wall Street's targets of $0.69 EPS and $6.82 billion in revenue [5]. - Supermicro did not provide guidance for 2026, citing tariff-related uncertainties, adding to investor concerns [5]. Context and Concerns - The disappointing earnings follow a period of recovery from controversies regarding accounting practices and the resignation of its auditor, Ernst & Young [6].
Super Micro Computer Q3: The Inventory's Piling Up And So Are The Red Flags
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-07 13:28
Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or ...
The Worst Has Happened To Super Micro: Load Up Under $30 (Rating Upgrade)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-07 13:15
Don’t just invest—dominate with Tech Contrarians' realized return on closed positions of 65.8% since inception. You’ll get exclusive insights into high-focus stocks, curated watchlists, one-on-one portfolio consultations, and everything from live portfolio tracking to earnings updates on 50+ companies. Subscribe today for 20% off.About a week ago, we initiated coverage on Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI ) with a sell rating, “Disappointment Is Just Getting Started; Sell Call On Super Micro Computer ...
What The New Quarter Says About Super Micro Computer's Future
MarketBeat· 2025-05-07 13:12
SMCI Super Micro Computer Super Micro Computer Today $32.94 +0.77 (+2.39%) 52-Week Range $17.25 ▼ $101.40 P/E Ratio 16.54 Price Target $48.33 Add to Watchlist The latest trade tariff rollouts by President Trump have hit the technology sector of the United States harder than most expected. The reason is that the tariffs seem to be centered around semiconductors and chipmakers in Asian regions, which consequently hold most of the industry's supply and logistics chain. However, some beliefs might point to a co ...