Gold Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs认为，由于各国央行（尤其是新兴市场央行）为实现储备多元化而持续购买黄金，且黄金供应无法快速响应需求，因此长期看好黄金，预计2026年金价将上涨[1][2] - 各国央行购买黄金，是为了对冲美元资产的风险，类似于一种金融对冲[5][6] - 中国央行的黄金储备占比约为10%，而发达国家央行的黄金储备占比超过70%，因此中国和其他新兴市场央行有理由继续增加黄金储备[4][5] - 随着美联储降息预期，ETF对黄金的配置也在增加，进一步加剧了对有限实物黄金的竞争[3] European Natural Gas Market - 欧洲已经逐渐摆脱对俄罗斯天然气的依赖，增加了液化天然气的进口[7] - 预计2025年将是全球液化天然气供应大幅增长的七年中的第一年，这将缓解欧洲的天然气供应压力，从而对欧洲天然气价格构成下行压力[7][8] - 俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的和平协议可能会加速并加剧欧洲天然气价格的下跌[9] Crude Oil Market - Goldman Sachs的基本假设是委内瑞拉石油产量维持现状，即日产约90万桶原油[9][10] - 市场对委内瑞拉局势变化（如政权更迭）可能导致石油供应增加的担忧，已经对远期石油价格产生了一定的影响[10][11] - 即使没有委内瑞拉额外的石油供应，预计明年WTI原油均价为每桶52美元，因为巴西和圭亚那等地的项目将增加石油供应[12]

Geopolitical Stance - Russia seeks respect from the West to avoid future conflicts [1] International Relations - Putin pledges no more wars if Russia is treated with respect by Western countries [1]

Just one year into his second term, President Trump has fashioned American foreign policy in his image. >> They put America last, we put America first. From targeting alleged narot terrorists on the open ocean to fighting openly with European allies to burkering a fraught ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.What President Trump is really attempting is to make himself one of the top statesmen in American history. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham is a staunch ally of the president and is often in his ear on m ...

Geopolitical Risk - A Briton who fought in Ukraine was sentenced to 13 years in jail by Russia [1]

In his first term, President Trump treated China and Russia as America's enemies. So why is he cozying up to them this time? @halbrands asks (via @opinion) https://t.co/DZfxqPJzLD ...

EU leaders face crunch decision on loaning Russia's frozen cash to Ukraine https://t.co/nwgIP50oQ0 ...

Defense Spending - Poland will allocate a significant portion of EU military loan funds to its own rearmament efforts [1] - The focus is on strengthening national defenses as a deterrent against potential Russian aggression [1] Geopolitical Strategy - Poland prioritizes independent defense buildup over collaborative military procurement with allies [1]

is joining us right now on that. Plus, the Trump administration's increasing pressure on Venezuela, Council on Foreign Relations. President Michael Froman is here.He served as US trade rep in the Obama administration. Can also talk about so many other things that are going on in the world. But let's let's start with Ukraine.Do you think we're actually going to get a deal. What do you think that deal is going to look like. And is this ultimately the solution that everyone's been after.>> Well, look, it looks ...

The trickiest question surrounding the latest peace proposals concerns Russia’s demand that Ukraine surrender all of the Donbas region, including parts it still holds https://t.co/hcG6lP7vnK ...

After talks in Berlin, the ball is now back in Russia’s court. Some think Vladimir Putin might pocket territorial concessions, if he thinks it will split Ukraine and divide America from the rest of NATO https://t.co/Bxv8mcxQ6v ...