化学制药 创新药动态更新 领先大市-B(维持) 相关报告： 魏赟 2025 年 6 月 30 日 行业研究/行业快报 化学制药行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 BGB-43395≥240 mg 每日两次剂量具有生物活性。BGB-43395 表现出快 速吸收和线性药代动力学特征，平均消除半衰期为 13 小时，与氟维司群或 来曲唑进行联合用药不会影响 BGB-43395 暴露量。氟维司群联合治疗队列 中，≥240mg 每日两次剂量组获得具有临床意义的药效学作用，≥240 mg 每 日两次剂量组观察到早期（C2D1）ctDNA 降低。 邮箱：zhangzhiyong@sxzq.com BGB-43395 是一款百济神州自主研发的 CDK4 抑制剂。BGB-43395 是 CDK4 的高度选择性抑制剂，靶向控制细胞分裂的检查点蛋白以阻止癌细胞 生长。相比 CDK4/6 抑制剂哌柏西利、瑞波西利、阿贝西利及 CDK4 抑制剂 Atirmociclib，BGB-43395 展现出最高的 CDK4 抑制性和选择性。BGB-43395 具有潜在同类最佳血液学安全性特征，在既往接受过多线治疗的 CDK4/6 ...

近日，2025（第四届）农村能源发展大会农村可再生能源发展交流会在浙江杭州举办。与会人士表示， 近年来我国高度重视农村能源发展，在政策持续加码下，农村能源发展迎来重要历史机遇，技术、模 式、政策应共同发力，推动农村能源实现普惠、安全、绿色、经济、协同发展。 国网能源研究院新能源研究所所长代红才发布《中国农村能源政策与实践》报告（以下简称《报告》） 时表示，农村能源发展有自身特殊性，需统筹普惠可及、清洁低碳、可负担可持续、安全可靠四大核心 要素，且各要素内涵随发展阶段不断深化，体现从"基础保障"到"高质量发展"的进阶逻辑，也是从"生 存型能源需求"向"发展型能源需求"的升级。《报告》认为，农村能源可持续发展需要技术适用、商业 模式可行、政策保障到位，能够构建起一个"技术易用-商业可行-政策托底"的闭环。 （文章来源：新华财经） 国网能源研究院总经理（院长）、党委副书记魏玢在致辞时表示，农村能源肩负保供、富民、减碳多重 使命。从战略发展层面来看，农村能源是农业强国建设的重要动力保障和物质基础。从产业振兴层面来 看，农村可再生能源开发利用已成为乡村产业的重要组成部分和农民增收的重要渠道。从生态改善层面 来看，农村可 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant shift in market dynamics due to Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, which have disrupted initial predictions for the year, leading to poor performance of previously favored assets like the US dollar and US stocks, while European markets and emerging markets have emerged as unexpected winners [1][2][13] Group 2 - The US dollar has experienced its worst start to the year since 2005, contrary to expectations that Trump's policies would strengthen it due to anticipated inflation and reduced likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][5] - The S&P 500 index saw a dramatic decline followed by a rapid recovery, with investor sentiment shifting significantly after Trump's decision to pause some tariffs, leading to a new historical high for the index [6][13] Group 3 - European stocks have outperformed US stocks, with the Stoxx 600 index beating the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points as of June 27, marking the best relative performance since 2016 [13] - Emerging markets have finally broken a trend of underperformance against US stocks, with a wealth increase of $1.8 trillion for shareholders in 2025, reaching a record market capitalization of $29 trillion [14] Group 4 - The Japanese yen has rebounded significantly against the dollar, with a nearly 9% decline in the dollar/yen exchange rate, reflecting a shift in market sentiment and demand for safe-haven assets [8][11] - Global bond markets are experiencing increased differentiation, with short-term government bonds performing well due to anticipated rate cuts, while long-term bonds face pressure from rising government debt [12]

截至午间收盘，沪指报3431.18点，涨幅0.20%，成交3468亿元；深证成指报10434.48点，涨幅0.54%， 成交5675亿元；创业板指报2144.06点，涨幅0.93%，成交2810亿元。 广发证券：近期煤价稳中有升，双焦商品市场远期价格表现强势。动力煤方面，后期，各环节库存6月 以来持续回落，7月以后预计季节性需求将继续增加，加上供应端难有增长，预计煤价有望延续回升。 焦煤方面，本周国内产地焦煤现货价格局部小幅回升，商品市场焦煤远期价格表现强势，主要受主产地 减产+下游补库积极性回升影响较大。近期煤炭市场企稳回升，后期受益于季节性需求提升，产量增长 放缓及进口煤预期下降，预计煤价有望延续向好。 A股三大指数6月30日早盘震荡反弹，创业板指领涨。盘面上，游戏股集体走强，恺英网络、巨人网络 涨停；军工板块延续强势，长城军工等近20股涨停；半导体产业链拉升，好上好、诚邦股份等涨停。下 跌方面，银行股持续调整，青岛银行等跌超2%。 热点板块 盘面上，游戏、军工装备、光伏设备、脑机接口、光刻机、太赫兹等板块和概念股涨幅居前；银行、证 券、煤炭开采加工、乳业、盐湖提锂、水泥等板块和概念股跌幅居前。 机构观点 ...

·西南期货：贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续 ·西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，关税存在巨大不确定性。"逆全球化"和"去美元 化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。短期内，黄金价格走势受地缘政治冲突的影响。因此贵 金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续，考虑做多黄金期货。 ·铜冠金源期货：预计短期金银价格近期将延续调整 ·银河期货：贵金属总体上仍然处于震荡调整之中 ·RJO Futures：风险偏好改善占据主导背景下金价或进一步回落 ·FXStreet：风险偏好改善金价短期仍可能进一步下跌长期仍保持看涨基调 【机构分析】 ·铜冠金源期货表示，当前中东地缘风险缓和，尽管美加贸易关系再度紧张，但中美贸易关系有所缓 和，且美国核心PCE超预期上涨也支持美联储主席鲍威尔表示没有降息紧迫性的观点，降低市场宽松预 期，都对避险资产形成压力，预计短期金银价格近期将延续调整。 ·银河期货表示，近日，市场的焦点逐渐从伊以冲突转回美联储的货币政策路径以及关税谈判期是否可 能延长。货币政策路径方面，大多数美联储官员的发言暂时维持观望态度，但提及秋季可能降息，市场 对于下半年的降息预期有所提升，对下半年降息次数的押注上升至三次。总体 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries [1] - The production index and new orders index for June are 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a recovery in manufacturing activity and market demand [1] - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises due to the recovery in production and demand [1] Group 2 - The major raw material purchasing price index and factory price index for June are 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, both increasing by 1.5 percentage points, ending a three-month decline [2] - The price trends for upstream raw materials and downstream products are showing good correlation, with both indices moving in the same direction during May and June [2] - The petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries saw significant increases in their purchasing and factory price indices due to rising international oil prices, while the black metal smelting and rolling industries experienced price declines due to falling raw material prices and weak terminal demand [2] Group 3 - The economic recovery is widespread, with all four major industry indices showing increases compared to the previous month; the equipment manufacturing PMI is at 51.4%, and the high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 50.9% [3] - The consumer goods manufacturing PMI is reported at 50.4%, indicating stable growth, while the basic raw materials industry PMI has risen to 47.8%, ending a three-month downward trend [3] - Overall, the manufacturing sector shows positive changes and a coordinated improvement in performance across various industries [3] Group 4 - Expectations for the second half of the year suggest that, barring significant external shocks, China's manufacturing sector will maintain steady growth, supported by effective policy measures and moderate market demand growth [4] - The current economic policies are in a critical phase of balancing counter-cyclical adjustments and market-driven demand contraction, necessitating increased efforts in expanding domestic demand policies [4] - There is a call for enhanced government investment in public goods to effectively stimulate manufacturing orders and sustain active production investment [4]

Core Insights - Baidu has officially open-sourced the Wenxin large model 4.5 series, releasing 10 models with varying parameters, including a 47B and a 3B mixture of experts (MoE) model, and a 0.3B dense model, along with complete pre-training weights and inference code [2][4] Group 1: Model Details - The Wenxin large model 4.5 series is available for download and deployment on platforms like PaddlePaddle and Hugging Face, with API services accessible via Baidu's intelligent cloud [4] - The open-sourced models include versions with smaller parameters, which are considered suitable for memory-constrained configurations, and the 28B model has added visual capabilities [6][7] - The Wenxin 4.5 series has demonstrated superior performance in various benchmarks, surpassing competitors like Qwen3 and DeepSeek-V3 in multiple tests [8][9] Group 2: Technical Innovations - Key innovations behind the Wenxin 4.5 series include multi-modal heterogeneous MoE pre-training, which enhances performance in text understanding, image comprehension, and cross-modal reasoning tasks [10][12] - The infrastructure for the model is designed for scalability and efficiency, employing strategies like heterogeneous mixed parallelism and hierarchical load balancing to improve pre-training throughput [12][13] - The model has undergone fine-tuning for specific modalities to meet diverse application needs, focusing on visual language understanding and employing advanced reinforcement learning methods [13][14] Group 3: Industry Impact - Baidu's move to open-source its models is seen as a significant step in the competitive landscape of large models, potentially raising industry standards and pressuring closed-source providers like OpenAI and Anthropic [14] - The daily invocation of Wenxin models is projected to reach 1.65 billion by 2024, a substantial increase from 50 million in the same period of 2023, indicating a growth rate of 33 times [14]

应当看到，图书尤其是童书有着重要的文化属性。为此，童书出版社、商家等理应将童书价格控制在合 理区间内，而不能仅仅为了销量和利润，陷入价格竞争，甚至采取不正当竞争手段。家长也该思考，一 本本童书买回家，有多少帮助孩子激发了想象力和创造力，有多少成了"吃灰""压箱底"的摆设，还有多 少则是粗制滥造的盗版书、残次品？ 近日，有调查发现，童书价格"两个极端"现象让家长忧心忡忡：一边是一些"豪华童书"，薄薄一册、寥 寥几页，动辄几十上百元，俨然成了"奢侈品"；另一边是低质低价的童书，不仅涉嫌盗版等问题，还存 在劣质油墨、刺鼻气味等可能危害未成年人身体健康的问题。 "豪华童书买不起，盗版童书满天飞。"为什么童书市场价格乱象愈演愈烈？ 原因是多方面的。一方面，一些商家唯利是图、急功近利，或过度包装、高价炒作，或以低质仿冒图书 侵占市场。另一方面，部分家长陷入育儿焦虑，或把对孩子的爱错误地量化为消费金额，盲目追求高价 童书；或简单地将买书视作对教育的重视，却不注重图书的质量和内容。 如何让童书定价回归合理区间？需要具体来看。出版行业应沉下心来打造优质、性价比高的童书，并推 行透明合理的成本核算与定价体系。经营商家也要摒弃"天 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Night Economy" series activities in Changping District aims to enhance nighttime cultural and commercial experiences, attracting significant public participation and boosting local consumption [1][3][4] Group 1: Event Overview - The "Night Economy" series officially started on June 28, featuring the introduction of the IP "Longan's Lychee," attracting over 70,000 visitors on the opening day [1][2] - The activities will run from June to September, with various themed events scheduled every weekend, including performances and interactive experiences [2][3] Group 2: Industry Integration - Changping District plans to integrate four major scenes: commercial entities, scenic spots, villages, and streets, with six types of industries: culture, tourism, commerce, sports, agriculture, and technology [3] - This integration aims to enrich nighttime life and stimulate new consumption vitality in the region, contributing to high-quality development of the "Night Economy" [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - The initiative is expected to drive a 15% year-on-year increase in nighttime business consumption through the establishment of four distinctive "Night Economy" landmarks [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound last week, with the margin trading balance reaching 1,839.43 billion yuan as of June 27, including a financing balance of 1,827.46 billion yuan, which increased by 26.51 billion yuan over the week [1][4]. Financing Balance Changes - Among the 31 industries tracked, 24 saw an increase in financing balance last week. The top three industries with the highest net financing inflows were Computer (4.78 billion yuan), Non-bank Financials (4.77 billion yuan), and Banking (4.07 billion yuan) [1][3]. - The seven industries that experienced a decrease in financing balance included Real Estate (0.28 billion yuan), Coal (0.26 billion yuan), and Construction Decoration (0.25 billion yuan) [1][3]. Individual Stock Performance - A total of 91 stocks saw an increase in financing amounts exceeding 100 million yuan, with the top ten stocks being Dongfang Caifu, Guotai Junan, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Tianfeng Securities, Zhinancun, Jianghuai Automobile, Hanwha U, New Guodu, Jingwang Electronics, and Postal Savings Bank, with net purchases of 1.72 billion yuan, 1.11 billion yuan, and 0.81 billion yuan respectively [5][7]. - The stock Zhinancun had the highest increase, rising over 36% last week [5].