The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday, formalizing a data-dependent approach to balancing the U.S. labor market against inflationary risks, amid ongoing White House pressure to accelerate monetary easing. The decision, which was widely expected, kept the federal funds rate at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. The move followed three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts late last year that had sought to engineer a “soft landing” for the economy. “Uncertainty about the economic ...

The Fed on Wednesday kept interest rates in the current range, a move that was widely expected in spite of intensifying pressure from President Trump and the criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.After three consecutive quarter-point cuts in 2025, the central bank maintained rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range at its first meeting of the year, in a 10-2 vote.Policymakers opted to take a wait-and-see approach after months of weighing inflation risks against unemployment — likely assuaged by recent economi ...

Given that Jay Pal is going to be speaking publicly this afternoon, I want to update you on what we know about that investigation uh into Pal and the Federal Reserve. Uh and remember that investigation was being done out of the US Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia. And I can tell you that a source familiar with the investigation tells me uh that the investigation is still ongoing, although we haven't heard very much about it over the past week or so.Uh it is still an ongoing issue. Uh, and I'm ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve has not complied with subpoenas in criminal investigation involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell. ...

Core Insights - Inflation remains elevated but stable, contributing to a steady job market, which leads economists to forecast that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates [1] Economic Indicators - Inflation is described as elevated but steady, indicating a lack of significant fluctuations in price levels [1] - The job market is holding up, suggesting resilience in employment rates and job creation [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at their current levels, reflecting confidence in the stability of inflation and the job market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts, with some officials forecasting potential cuts later in the year amid concerns about the central bank's independence from the Trump administration [1][7]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders have assigned a 2.8% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates from the current 3.5% to 3.75% range by a quarter point [1]. - Betting markets show a strong preference for no change in interest rates, with Polymarket and Kalshi indicating 99% odds of rates remaining between 3.5% and 3.75% [2]. - The Fed's "dot plot" suggests only one quarter-point cut is expected in 2026, with a potential cut in 2027, while current odds for cuts later this year are 17.4% in March, 28.1% in April, and 46.8% in June [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid advocates for holding the benchmark rate to achieve a 2% inflation target, emphasizing a modestly restrictive monetary policy [2]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who previously dissented on rate cuts, also supports maintaining current rates to address inflation [2]. - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson is comfortable with holding rates steady, believing a restrictive policy will aid in lowering inflation [2]. Group 3: Potential Leadership Changes - President Trump indicated he would announce a nominee to succeed Jerome Powell soon, with speculation that the announcement could coincide with the FOMC's January meeting [4][6]. - Possible candidates to replace Powell include Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder, with Rieder currently favored at 40% odds [6]. Group 4: Context of Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve has resisted Trump's calls for more aggressive rate cuts, with Powell facing scrutiny and threats of a criminal indictment related to his Senate testimony [7]. - The investigation into Powell has been criticized as an attempt to undermine the Fed's independence, despite the White House asserting Trump's support for the Fed's political autonomy [7].

One thing we know is coming next is the first Fed decision of the year 2 p. m. Eastern today.The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady and the decision comes as Chair Powell continues to face scrutiny from the White House. Michael McKee Bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent joins us now, who's in Washington for the decision. Mike, what are you going to be looking out for in a meeting where we're likely to get no change.Yeah, well, we might get a news void at the Federal Reserve, ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has unexpectedly increased its purchases of short-term U.S. debt, leading to a significant expansion of its balance sheet, which has grown by over $55 billion in T-bills since December 12 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed plans to expand its portfolio by approximately $40 billion per month for the next couple of months, with a slowdown expected after April [1] - April is highlighted as a critical month due to tax payments from corporations and individuals, which will drain liquidity from banks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is anticipated to maintain interest rates at their current level following a series of reductions in the latter half of 2025, raising questions about the duration of this pause [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Policy** - The central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday after previously reducing them in the latter half of 2025 [1] - The key concern is the length of time the central bank will maintain this pause in interest rate changes [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's policy committee members who dissent from the majority are less likely to have their preferred policies adopted in future meetings, as highlighted by a research paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research [2][5][6] - Recent meetings have seen a majority vote to lower interest rates by a quarter-point, but dissenting votes have been present, indicating a division among members regarding inflation and employment concerns [3][8] Economic Implications - The Fed faces a dilemma between high inflation and a slowing job market, which has led to varying viewpoints among committee members [4][7] - The influence of the chair in steering majority opinion and establishing consensus is significant, with dissenting members experiencing a one-third reduction in the likelihood of their preferred policies being adopted in the future [5][6] Dissent Dynamics - Dissenting votes are less common, as members may only express disagreement when they believe their position will not prevail in future discussions [6][7] - The recent increase in dissenting votes reflects a lack of consensus on whether inflation or unemployment poses a greater threat to the economy [8]