Market Overview - The Glycerin Market is valued at USD 4.00 Billion in 2025E and projected to reach USD 6.46 Billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.24% from 2026 to 2033 [1] - The U.S. glycerin market is valued at USD 0.77 Billion in 2025E and expected to reach USD 1.29 Billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 6.60% during the forecast period [3] Demand Drivers - Rising demand for natural and bio-based glycerin across multiple industries, including food, cosmetics, personal care, and medicinal applications [4] - Consumer preference for sustainable, plant-based, and eco-friendly products is driving the increase in vegetable and by-product glycerin usage [4] Market Segmentation By Source - Vegetable glycerin holds a 55.24% market share in 2025, driven by its strong penetration in food, pharmaceutical, and personal care industries [5] - Synthetic glycerin is growing at the fastest pace due to increasing industrial applications [5] By Application - Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care dominate with a 45.39% market share in 2025, attributed to wide applications in skincare, cosmetics, and medicinal preparations [7] - Industrial applications are rapidly expanding in biofuels, resins, and lubricants [7] By Purity - USP Grade leads with a 51.28% market share in 2025, driven by demand from pharmaceutical, personal care, and food industries [8] - Industrial grade glycerin is expected to witness the highest growth due to rising application scope in chemical, biofuel, and industrial manufacturing [8] By Form - Liquid form held a 60.75% market share in 2025, due to various applications in food, personal care, and pharmaceuticals [9] - Powder form of glycerin is the fastest growing due to ease of handling and formulation stability [9] Regional Insights - Asia-Pacific dominated the glycerin market in 2025, accounting for 39.25% of revenue share, driven by rising pharmaceutical, personal care, and food industries [10] - North America is expected to witness the fastest growth from 2026 to 2033, with a projected CAGR of 6.94% due to advanced chemical processing and large-scale glycerin use [11] Recent Developments - In October 2024, KLK OLEO launched a new line of pharmaceutical- and food-grade glycerin under the "Olebased PureGlyc" brand, derived from sustainable vegetable oils [13] - In February 2025, Emery Oleochemicals expanded technical-grade glycerin production at its Cincinnati facility to meet rising industrial demand [15]

Core Insights - Aemetis, Inc. is actively collaborating with the U.S. government to enhance its operations in India, particularly through its subsidiary Universal Biofuels, which operates an 80 million gallon per year biodiesel production facility in Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh [2][3][4] Company Overview - Aemetis is a diversified global renewable natural gas and biofuels company, headquartered in Cupertino, California, focusing on innovative technologies for energy independence and security [7][8] - Universal Biofuels has been operational for over 17 years and is one of the largest biodiesel producers in India, recently increasing its production capacity from 60 million gallons to 80 million gallons [5][6] Industry Context - India aims to increase the biodiesel blend from 1% to 5% as part of its National Policy on Biofuels, which aligns with Aemetis' expansion plans [3][4] - The Indian government is committed to enhancing biofuels production to improve air quality and market agricultural products, addressing significant public health issues caused by diesel engine emissions [4][3] Financial and Operational Highlights - Universal Biofuels completed $112 million in biodiesel and glycerin shipments in the twelve months ending September 2024, with ongoing contracts with government-owned oil marketing companies [6] - The company is preparing for an IPO in India, targeting completion in late 2025 or early 2026, contingent on favorable market conditions [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $268 million, up from $187 million in 2023, with all three segments reporting increases [7] - Cost of goods sold increased from $184.7 million in 2023 to $268.2 million in 2024, aligning with revenue changes [8] - Net loss was $87.5 million for 2024, compared to a net loss of $46.4 million in 2023 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - California ethanol revenue increased by $57.7 million, India biodiesel revenue increased by $15.7 million, and California renewable natural gas revenue increased by $7.6 million [8] - The dairy renewable natural gas segment accounted for $5.4 million of gross profit, primarily from the sale of environmental attributes [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The price of California LCFS credits increased from $44 to $75 by February 2025, but a recent delay in implementation caused a 30% decrease in prices [15][16] - The expected increase in LCFS credit prices could reach $200 per ton, significantly benefiting Aemetis' biogas and ethanol businesses [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Aemetis aims to benefit from supportive public policies for domestic energy producers, focusing on biogas, ethanol, and biodiesel growth [12] - The company is preparing for an IPO of its India biodiesel business, expected in late 2025 or early 2026, contingent on new OMC orders [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the REAP program and expects approvals for new funding soon [45][46] - The company anticipates that the approval of E15 blends will significantly expand the U.S. ethanol market by up to 50% [22][24] Other Important Information - Capital expenditures for carbon intensity reduction projects were $20.3 million in 2024, with ongoing projects aimed at increasing production capacity [10] - Aemetis has received conditional commitments for $75 million in USDA guaranteed loans for biogas digester construction [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence levels around refinancing given government spending reductions - Management has high confidence in the REAP program and expects approvals soon [45][46] Question: Insight into the OAL's request for revisions and expected delays - The complexity of the LCFS legislation led to the OAL's request for clarifications, causing a potential 120-day delay [57][58] Question: Status of India biodiesel production and OMC tender process - A new tender is expected to be issued soon, with significant inventory available for initial shipments [64][65] Question: Expected spending plans for 2025 amid regulatory turbulence - Aemetis plans a $75 million capital budget supported by USDA loans and grants, with an acceleration in biogas investments [78][79] Question: Impact of E15 approvals on ethanol margins - E15 adoption is expected to be gradual, with significant margin improvements anticipated by 2027 [84][90] Question: Timing of CARB policy implementation - Management estimates a 2-3 month timeline for CARB policy implementation, with no definitive endpoint [92] Question: Drivers of negative EBITDA results in Q4 - Oversupply and high corn prices were significant factors, but operational adjustments are expected to improve Q1 performance [98][100] Question: Expectations on D3 RVO going forward - The EPA's recent actions suggest a lower D3 RIN mandate for 2024, impacting future investment growth [106][112]