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Tourlite Capital Q4 2025 Investor Letter
Seeking Alpha· 2026-02-05 05:25
Performance Summary - Tourlite Fund, LP returned 0.2% for Q4 2025 and 2.8% for the full year, with an annualized return of 8.1% since inception, underperforming the S&P 500 (13.3%) and Russell 2000 (6.5%) [2] - The fund's long positions struggled due to poor stock selection, while the short book generated a positive contribution of 0.9% [3][4] Market Outlook - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, anticipating strong economic growth and declining inflation, supported by pro-growth policies ahead of midterm elections [5] - A rotation in market performance has been observed, with the Russell 2000 outperforming the S&P 500 and sectors like industrials and materials leading [6] Risks and Opportunities - There are concerns about potential inflationary pressures re-emerging later in the year due to aggressive monetary policy and fiscal stimulus [7] - If inflation pressures return, it may create opportunities for short sellers as market dynamics shift [8] Portfolio Composition - The average net beta-adjusted exposure was 20%, with gross exposure ranging from approximately 175% to 260% [9] - Sector concentration included consumer (~20%), industrials (~50%), and technology (~25%), with a strategy of being short consumer and long industrials [10] Notable Positions - FTAI Aviation is expected to reach $250 per share, with potential for $1 billion EBITDA from a new initiative [13] - Montana Aerospace has been initiated as a new position, trading at a significant discount with strong growth potential in the aerospace sector [18][19] Short Positions - The fund has established short positions in companies with unfavorable supply-demand dynamics and high valuations, anticipating declines in volume and margins [23][24] - Specific shorts include a consumer company expected to face revenue and margin disappointments due to transitory conditions [27]