Core Insights - Oasis Management disclosed an acquisition of 833,500 shares of Vail Resorts, valued at approximately $122.66 million, indicating a significant increase in their investment during the fourth quarter of 2026 [2][4] - The total stake in Vail Resorts for Oasis Management reached $245.84 million, reflecting an increase of $93.62 million from the previous quarter, driven by both share purchases and price changes [2][4] Company Overview - Vail Resorts operates numerous mountain destinations and luxury lodgings, generating revenue from lift ticket sales, hospitality, and real estate [1][6] - The company has a market capitalization of $4.92 billion and reported a total revenue of $2.98 billion with a net income of $266.09 million for the trailing twelve months [4] Financial Performance - As of February 12, 2026, Vail Resorts shares were priced at $136.93, which represents a decline of approximately 12.24% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 25.14 percentage points [8] - Season-to-date skier visits were reported to be down 20%, with lift revenue decreasing by 1.8% and ski school and dining revenue falling by double digits [10] Market Position and Strategy - Vail Resorts targets leisure travelers and outdoor recreation enthusiasts, leveraging its extensive network of resorts and premium service offerings to capture high-value destination guests [6][9] - The company’s integrated business model and scale provide competitive advantages in customer reach and operational efficiency [6] Investor Sentiment - The increase in exposure to Vail Resorts amid a weak season suggests investor confidence in a normalization of conditions rather than panic over current weather-related challenges [7][11] - Vail Resorts represents 37% of Oasis Management's reportable assets, indicating a high-conviction cyclical recovery thesis tied to geography, passholder loyalty, and long-term pricing power [11]

Core Viewpoint - Vail Resorts, Inc. will release its financial results for the fiscal second quarter of 2026 on March 9, 2026, after market close, with a conference call scheduled for the same day to discuss the results [1]. Financial Results Announcement - The financial results will cover the period ended January 31, 2026, and will be available after market close on March 9, 2026 [1]. - A conference call will take place at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the same day, where executives will review the financial results [1]. - The call will be accessible via a dedicated link and telephone numbers for participants in the U.S. and internationally [1]. Company Overview - Vail Resorts operates a network of ski resorts, including notable locations such as Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, and Whistler Blackcomb, among others [1]. - The company aims to achieve a zero net operating footprint by 2030 and is committed to supporting employees and communities [1]. - Vail Resorts also manages a collection of hotels under the RockResorts brand and operates over 240 retail and rental locations across North America [1].

Core Viewpoint - Vail Resorts' stock is being reconsidered due to insufficient snowfall, leading to a 12% decline in shares since the recommendation was made [1] Group 1 - The company has experienced a significant drop in stock value, prompting a reassessment of its investment potential [1] - Weather patterns have proven to be unpredictable, complicating investment decisions in the ski resort industry [1]

Core Insights - Vail Resorts, Inc. is a leading global mountain resort operator, primarily competing in the ski destination market in the United States, Canada, and Australia [1] Financial Performance - Vail Resorts has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.19%, which is below its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 6.15%, resulting in a ROIC to WACC ratio of 0.84, indicating inefficiency in generating returns over its cost of capital [2][6] - Comparatively, Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) shows the highest efficiency with a ROIC of 52.96% against a WACC of 9.45%, leading to a ROIC to WACC ratio of 5.61 [4][6] - Hyatt Hotels Corporation has a negative ROIC of -20.09% and a WACC of 8.51%, indicating significant inefficiency in capital utilization [5][6]

Core Insights - Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) reported a weak early ski season performance, with metrics indicating significant declines compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Early Season Performance - The early ski season is one of the weakest in over 30 years, attributed to snowfall being approximately 50% below the 30-year average and nearly 60% below average in the Rockies [2] - Terrain availability was limited to about 11% in December, negatively impacting visitation and guest spending [2] - Season-to-date skier visits fell by 20.0%, while total lift revenues declined by 1.8% [4] Group 2: Financial Expectations - Vail Resorts expects its full-year Resort Reported EBITDA to be slightly below the lower end of the previously issued guidance range of $842 million to $898 million [5] - The company cited risks related to slower-than-expected recovery and continued weak conditions in the Rockies [5] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to its advanced commitment strategy and has introduced initiatives such as Epic Friends tickets and a lift ticket program to support future visitation [6] - Increased marketing spend beyond traditional channels is expected to drive long-term growth [6] Group 4: Stock Performance - Shares of Vail Resorts declined by 2.4% during the trading session following the news and have fallen 12% over the past six months, compared to a 7.8% decline in the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry [3][7] - The company's near-term prospects are affected by challenging weather conditions, but strategic initiatives may offer potential upside [7]

Core Insights - Vail Resorts reported a significant decline in early ski season metrics due to one of the worst early season snowfalls in over 30 years, with snowfall in the western U.S. approximately 50% below the historical average [2] - The company expects its full year Resort Reported EBITDA to be just below the low end of the previously issued guidance, contingent on performance improvements in the Rockies [2] Ski Season Metrics - Total skier visits decreased by 20.0% compared to the prior year period [5] - Total lift revenue, including season pass revenue, was down 1.8% compared to the prior year period [5] - Ski school revenue fell by 14.9% and dining revenue decreased by 15.9% compared to the prior year period [5] - Retail/rental revenue for North American resort and ski area store locations declined by 6.0% compared to the prior year period [5] Weather Impact - Snowfall in the Rockies was down nearly 60% versus the historical average, resulting in only 11% of terrain being opened in December [2] - Conditions in Tahoe and Whistler improved with significant snowstorms over the holiday period, allowing for terrain expansion [2] - Early season conditions at eastern U.S. ski areas were strong, partially offsetting the negative impacts from weather in the Rockies [2] Company Strategy and Commitment - The company emphasized its commitment to an advance commitment strategy and investments in resorts and employees to enhance guest experience [2] - Despite weather challenges, the company reported strong guest satisfaction scores for the season to date [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses Vail Resorts (MTN) and previously held a "hold" rating while awaiting evidence that initiatives can stabilize visit trends and improve performance [1] - The author emphasizes a diverse investment approach, incorporating fundamental, technical, and momentum investing strategies to enhance the investment process [1] Group 2 - The author uses Seeking Alpha as a platform to track investment ideas and connect with like-minded investors [1]

Core Insights - During market turbulence, investors often seek dividend-yielding stocks, which typically have high free cash flows and offer substantial dividends [1] Group 1: Company Ratings and Analyst Insights - Vail Resorts Inc (NYSE:MTN) has a dividend yield of 6.44%. Truist Securities analyst Patrick Scholes maintained a Buy rating but reduced the price target from $237 to $234, with an accuracy rate of 66%. Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Grambling kept an Equal-Weight rating and lowered the price target from $153 to $151, also with an accuracy rate of 66%. Vail Resorts reported better-than-expected first-quarter EPS results on Dec. 11 [3][6] - Newell Brands Inc (NASDAQ:NWL) has a dividend yield of 6.65%. Citigroup analyst Filippo Falorni maintained a Neutral rating and increased the price target from $3.5 to $3.75, with an accuracy rate of 53%. UBS analyst Peter Grom also maintained a Neutral rating but cut the price target from $5.5 to $4, with an accuracy rate of 54%. Newell Brands is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings results on Feb. 6, 2026 [4][6] - Oxford Industries Inc (NYSE:OXM) has a dividend yield of 7.66%. UBS analyst Mauricio Serna maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $35 to $36, with an accuracy rate of 52%. Citigroup analyst Paul Lejuez also maintained a Neutral rating but reduced the price target from $35 to $33, with an accuracy rate of 66%. Oxford Industries reported positive third-quarter financial results but issued fourth-quarter guidance below estimates on Dec. 10 [5][6]

Core Themes - 2026 is expected to be shaped by significant market themes, with rotation being a major focus due to sharp valuation disparities [1] Analyst Background - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, providing insights into current industry themes [1]

Core Themes for 2026 - Investors should focus on core themes that will shape the markets in 2026, with rotation being a significant factor due to sharp valuation disparities [1] Analyst Background - Gary Alexander has extensive experience covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, providing insights into current industry themes [1]