#Crypto2025 年开始做一些主动交易了。没有违背自己在 2021 年入圈时定下的原则：完整经历一轮牛熊之前，不下单。耗时 4 年，我终于新手入门了。（我认为十年如一日遵守的才叫原则，也很喜欢一本小说虽然只看了开头：我师兄实在太稳健了） https://t.co/HRqKALiloC𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗸𝘆 (@taresky):@Lance_rrr 不是，我自己设想了一个原则是完整经历一轮牛熊之前，不下单。 ...

长期来看，3500点是牛熊分界线，历史上真正站稳并突破3500点的只有三次，2007年、2015年都是大行 情，2021年时间最短，也是结构性行情。2021年前入市的兄弟们是不是有似曾相识之感？但当下成交量 和基本面与当年不可同日而语，3500点必须守住。本周指数以震荡运行为主，不排除有假跌破可能，即 便跌破也会很快收回，观望的兄弟要珍惜机会。 那该如何应对才能提高成功率？险资开始进场，优先考虑大金融及业绩较好的白马股，适合性格沉稳的 兄弟，白马股自2021年调整至今，多些耐心会有不错回报，但银行除外，具体原因翻看老陈周末视频。 性子急躁的兄弟在结构性行情下千万别着急，一着急就容易追涨杀跌，导致账户严重缩水，等市场遍地 开花时却没了资金。像今天机器人板块开始反弹，科技板块也有异动迹象，兄弟们要耐得住寂寞才能守 住繁华，千万别轻易交出手中低价筹码，否则就真倒在黎明前了。 7月14日，和讯投顾陈杰臻称，请散户兄弟们打起精神，指数不断创新高，但账户资金没增加甚至缩 水。周五尾盘跳水留下上影线，不少兄弟周末担心市场，看着上涨却赚不到钱，心里发慌，空仓的既盼 调整又怕调整过深不敢进场。到底7月会不会有大级别调整？下面老 ...

上周，伴随上证综指站上3500点并呈现出量价齐升的格局，能感受到市场的讨论度变高了，但纠结的情绪 也变浓了。 有纠结，很正常。因为无论是以对投资体验影响更大的近3年为观察周期，还是拉到近20年这一更长维度 来观察，上证综指在3500点以下的停留与徘徊时间，显然是多数时间。 进入到市场的"少数时间"，兴奋 中夹杂着忐忑，是人之常情。 数据来源：中泰资管、Wind， 板块与板块的冷热不均，说明市场并没有太多的齐涨共跌，仍有不少没那么热闹的领域。通过深入研究寻 找蒙尘的珍珠，仍是可为之举。 二是不要把仓位管理放在非零即一的框架之下。 举个也许没那么恰当的例子，并不是说股指在3450点就 不算高位、还应该加仓位买买买，而到了3500点就是高位、应该一把清仓。 如果你也认可价值投资，那么 不妨让组合成为有把握的标的堆叠的结果 。如果还有让自己觉得依然拿得 住、睡得着觉、跌下来也愿意加仓的标的，那就继续持有。这样的标的多，仓位就自然高；这样的标的变 少了，也可以让仓位低一点。总之，别勉强，坦然接受"错过"这种状态，把精力和时间专注于有把握的事 和物。 三是要对更大的市场波动有心理准备。 人气旺了，参与的人多了，情绪的起伏 ...

Core Viewpoint - Meituan's stock price is currently experiencing volatility, with mixed technical indicators suggesting uncertainty in its short-term direction [1][4][6]. Technical Analysis - As of the latest data, Meituan's stock closed at 126 HKD, with a daily increase of 0.56%. However, it has since dropped to 123.7 HKD, reflecting a decline of 1.83% [1]. - Technical indicators predominantly signal a "sell," with a strength rating of 15, indicating downward pressure on the medium to long-term trend. Multiple moving averages also suggest a strong sell signal [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37, indicating an oversold condition, while other oscillators show mixed signals, creating a divergence in market sentiment regarding Meituan's short-term performance [1]. Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level for Meituan is at 122 HKD, with a lower support at 113.1 HKD. The first resistance level is at 133.8 HKD, and a higher resistance at 142.5 HKD [4]. - The current stock price is positioned between these support and resistance levels, indicating a need for a directional decision in the short term. The system assesses the probability of an upward movement at 57%, with a recent five-day volatility of 7.1% [4]. Derivative Products Performance - On June 27, 2025, Meituan's stock fell by 2.63%, during which various derivative products showed significant gains, highlighting the leveraged nature of these instruments. For instance, HSBC's put option (16234) rose by 11%, while Morgan Stanley's bear certificate (66223) increased by 16% [4]. - The current market offers several noteworthy derivative products for investors. For those anticipating an upward breakout, options like the Bank of China call option (26428) with a leverage of 7.5 times and an exercise price of 140 HKD are available [6]. - Conversely, for those expecting a downward adjustment, UBS's put option (16119) offers a leverage of 5.3 times with an exercise price of 122.9 HKD [7]. Summary of Derivative Products - The following products are highlighted for their leverage and pricing: - Bank of China Call Option (26428): Leverage 7.5, Exercise Price 140 HKD [8]. - HSBC Call Option (27146): Leverage 7.8, Exercise Price 140.1 HKD [8]. - UBS Put Option (16119): Leverage 5.3, Exercise Price 122.9 HKD [9]. - UBS Bull Certificate (64717): Leverage 6.5, Redemption Price 111 HKD [9]. - Morgan Stanley Bull Certificate (50094): Leverage 7, Redemption Price 111.5 HKD [9]. - Societe Generale Bear Certificate (54322): Leverage 9, Redemption Price 139 HKD [9].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3463.25 points, above the annual line, with a change of 0.06% [1] - A total trading volume of A-shares today is 6235.95 billion yuan [1] - 20 A-shares have broken through the annual line, with notable stocks including Aima Technology, *ST Sunshine, and Qingdao Port, showing divergence rates of 1.97%, 0.84%, and 0.65% respectively [1] Group 2 - The stocks with the highest divergence rates from the annual line include: - Aima Technology (603529) with a price increase of 3.31% and a divergence rate of 1.97% [1] - *ST Sunshine (000608) with a price increase of 1.03% and a divergence rate of 0.84% [1] - Qingdao Port (601298) with a price increase of 0.80% and a divergence rate of 0.65% [1] - Other stocks that have just crossed the annual line include: - Jinghu High-speed Railway (601816) with a price increase of 0.35% and a divergence rate of 0.01% [2] - Tiankang Biological (002100) with a price increase of 0.32% and a divergence rate of 0.10% [2]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 最近市场涨涨跌跌，进入7月份，按照惯例，也更新下，2025年7月初的螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板。 这个信号板有定量和定性两部分。 长图片后面，有详细的牛熊信号板相关数据意义的介绍。 2012.12 2000 2012.1.6 2025.7.2 巴菲特指标 100% 80% 74.02% s 50% 2022.1.4 2025.7.2 注：80%以下通常代表偏低，市场比较便宜；80%-100%代表正常水平，100%以上代 表偏高，市场比较贵了。 市净率百分位 一 大盘价值 一 大盘成长 100% 60.50% 50% 47.36% 0% 2015.7 2020.1 2018.1 2022.1 2025.7.2 小盘价值 一 小盘成长 100% 64.66% 50% ¡28.38% 0% 2015.7 2018.1 2020.1 2025.7.2 市净率百分位：指当前的市净率数据,处于它历史数据里百分之多少的位置。通常 所处的历史位置越低，估值越便宜。例如百分位为0，表示创下了历史新低。 股债性价比 近5年百分位: 8.13% 一 股债性价比 一 中证全指 近10年百分位: 4. ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a strong performance over the past six months, starting at 19,600 and reaching a high of 24,800, with a current level around 24,200, indicating a fluctuation of over 5,000 points [1] - The pharmaceutical sector has been the best-performing industry, with notable stocks like Kangfang Biotech (9926), China Biologic Products (1177), and WuXi Biologics (2269) showing exceptional gains [1] - Technology stocks, particularly Xiaomi (01810), have also performed well, with a 74% increase, while NetEase (09999) and Kuaishou (01024) saw gains of 50% and 48%, respectively [1] IPO and Derivative Market - The overall Hong Kong stock market has strengthened significantly in the first half of the year compared to 2023, with notable IPOs such as CATL and increased interest in consumer stocks like Pop Mart (9992) [2] - The issuance of structured products has been active, with the market responding to stock price movements, particularly for high-performing stocks [2] Investment Signals - The current sentiment in the market shows a bullish outlook, with 70% of investors holding bullish positions in HSI bull certificates, while 30% are bearish [5] - Caution is advised as the market lacks strong momentum, and there may be a potential pullback to around 23,700 before any further upward movement [5] Stock Analysis - Xiaomi has recently launched a new product, the YU7 car, which received 200,000 orders within an hour, driving its stock price to around 61, marking a 74% increase in the first half of the year [9] - BYD's sales in June reached 382,000 vehicles, with stock prices showing resilience around the 120 mark, indicating potential for further gains [13] - China Construction Bank has seen its stock price rise above 8, with a strong buy signal indicated for its derivatives [16] - China General Nuclear Power (01816) has shown a steady upward trend, with a buy signal for its structured products [19]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天是上半年最后一个交易日。 A股比较争气，整体上涨，还在4.9星。 港股今天下跌，港股科技股微跌。 上半年结束： • 主动优选、指数增强上半年整体上涨，跑赢同期沪深300等指数比较多。 • 90天、365、月薪宝6月也创下历史新高。 一些底层数据，等后面出来后，也会跟大家复盘下策略的运作情况。 1. 有朋友问，牛熊市长度，跟什么有关呢？ 为何有的时候熊市时间长，例如2022年以来；有的时候熊市时间短，例如2018年？ 熊市长短，往往跟经济周期有关。 沪深300等大盘股微涨，中证500、中证1000等中小盘股上涨较多。 医药医疗比较强势。 银行指数上周创下历史新高，接近高估，之后出现了回调。 这两天相对低迷。 指数点数=估值*盈利+分红。 星级代表市场整体估值。 在5星，意味着估值向下的空间不大。 这几个月每次跌倒5点几星，市场就没有继续向下了，说明低估值对市场下跌有保护作用。 但是长期上涨的核心动力，来自上市公司的盈利增长。 在经济低迷周期，上市公司的盈利增长会相对较慢，熊市持续时间会长； 经济景气周期，盈利增长速度则会比较快，中间会遇到熊市，但熊市持续时间较短。 2 ...

Market Overview - The overall market is performing well, with the Hang Seng Index rising to nearly 24,200 points, showing increased trading activity with a total turnover of 230 billion [1][3] - Investor sentiment appears optimistic, with expectations of testing the 24,500 level in the short term [1][3] Investment Products - There is a notable flow of funds in the warrants and structured products market, with some investors taking profits from bullish positions while others are starting to deploy bearish positions near the 24,400-24,500 range [3] - Specific products such as put warrants are gaining attention due to their lack of recall risk and potential for leverage, with examples showing leverage of around 10 times [3][4] Stock Performance - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) shares rose by 4%, closing around 414 HKD, with a strong performance in related warrants [7][8] - Xiaomi's stock increased by approximately 3.74%, closing at 56.9 HKD, driven by anticipation of an upcoming product launch [12][16] - China Hongqiao's stock price has risen from 9 HKD to around 17 HKD, with a 35% increase in mid-term profits reported [16][17] - Meituan's stock has been underperforming, with a recent decline of 1%, but there is a flow of funds into bullish warrants as investors see potential at the 130 HKD level [19] - China Life's stock has risen from 13 HKD to around 19 HKD, with some investors starting to deploy bearish positions [23] - BYD's stock is fluctuating between 120-130 HKD, with recent inflows into bullish positions as it shows signs of potential rebound [27][28] Technical Analysis - Support and resistance levels for the Hang Seng Index are identified at 23,634 and 24,474 points respectively [4] - For individual stocks, technical signals indicate a "buy" for China Hongqiao and China Life, while Meituan shows a "sell" signal [19][23] - The leverage ratios for various warrants are highlighted, with some products offering leverage of 4 to 11 times, depending on the underlying stock and expiration dates [9][12][27]

Market Overview - Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations since 2025, with a notable drop below $101,000 on June 6, 2025, following a peak of $105,000 earlier in June [2] - The price of Bitcoin was approximately $104,272 on June 20, 2025, and it fell to its lowest level since May due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and renewed inflation concerns [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Following the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, a supply contraction effect has emerged, coupled with increasing demand from both institutional and retail investors, driving prices upward [3] - The number of wallets holding more than 10 BTC has been increasing, indicating that long-term holders are accumulating [3] Impact of Geopolitical Events - The military actions in the Middle East, particularly Israel's attacks on Iran starting June 13, 2025, triggered a significant deleveraging event in the cryptocurrency market, leading to a liquidation of $10.15 billion on June 22, 2025 [5][6] - The conflict has caused a "death spiral" in the market, with a net outflow of $644 million from Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. over six consecutive days [6] Market Recovery and Volatility - Following a ceasefire agreement on June 23, 2025, Bitcoin's price surged by 5% to over $106,000, but underlying demand from large investors and ETFs has decreased by 50% since the peak [7] - The price levels of $92,000 and $81,000 are identified as critical support and resistance levels for Bitcoin [7] Broader Financial Market Reactions - The conflict has also impacted oil prices, with potential threats to the supply chain in the Middle East leading to a spike in international crude oil prices [7] - Other financial markets, including stock markets in Israel and Iran, have faced significant volatility due to the conflict, with technology stocks in the U.S. experiencing declines [8] Future Outlook for Bitcoin - The supply-demand structure post-halving is expected to continue supporting Bitcoin prices in the long term, especially with increasing institutional investment [9] - Legislative support, such as Texas establishing a public Bitcoin reserve, is seen as a positive development for the cryptocurrency market [9] - The potential for Bitcoin to serve as a financial infrastructure in conflict zones has been highlighted, showcasing its resilience and utility in extreme conditions [10]