4 year cycle
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X @Mayne
Mayne· 2026-02-06 00:57
You can be right and still fuck it up though.I expected the 4 year cycle to remain.I sold some on the way up but I didn't cash out all my spot.Missed the actual top and then was too bullish on where the lower high would form.Execution is all that really matters, not what's said online.Kieran (@CLAZZO2000):@Tradermayne You did say you thought the 4 year cycle would still play out. Looks like you were right 😂 ...
X @Mayne
Mayne· 2026-02-06 00:51
So this time wasn't different, the 4 year cycle remains king and $BTC topped in Q4, 4 years after the prior top.I can only assume then that this bear market will play out similar to the prior ones and BTC will eventually make it's way towards the 79% fib.Last cycle I thought $30k and below was good value.Cycle before that I thought $6k and below was good value.At the rate we are selling off, I think we are approaching those good value levels pretty quickly. ...
X @PlanB
PlanB· 2026-01-27 11:22
RT PlanB (@100trillionUSD)4 year cycle is NOT the same as stock-to-flow model.The 4 year cycle says that the year after a halving is a bull year, like 2013, 2017, 2021 🟩🟥🟩🟩 and 2025 did obviously not fit that pattern.But S2F says nothing about bull or bear, top or bottom. S2F is the thesis that scarcity drives value, that bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because BTC is scarcer than gold. S2F models the rough path of nonlinear phase transitions towards $30T+. S2F roughly models the aver ...
X @PlanB
PlanB· 2026-01-14 15:39
4 year cycle is NOT the same as stock-to-flow model.The 4 year cycle says that the year after a halving is a bull year, like 2013, 2017, 2021 🟩🟥🟩🟩 and 2025 did obviously not fit that pattern.But S2F says nothing about bull or bear, top or bottom. S2F is the thesis that scarcity drives value, that bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because BTC is scarcer than gold. S2F models the rough path of nonlinear phase transitions towards $30T+. S2F roughly models the average price during a 4 year ...
X @Ansem
Ansem 🧸💸· 2025-12-10 18:31
currently also in camp that you want to be long going into back half of 2026 but really am not convinced Bitcoin/ETH/SOL/HYPE will be the fastest horses for risk assetsfejau (@fejau_inc):@Bing0to yeah the thesis has been- macro growth scare/shutdown impact/monetary liquidity concerns in Q4- same time as everyone selling cause 4 year cycle top- victory laps about 4 year cycle being right again- q4 dat unwind which has been ongoing, dont think they will be big sellers ...
X @Mayne
Mayne· 2025-11-06 19:48
RT Mayne (@Tradermayne)My thesis for remaining bullish going into the end of the year has been built on a few things that I've covered repeatedly over the last 1 month+ on YouTube and here.Summarizing my thoughts below.4 year cycle, I've been a staunch 4 year cycle believer, it looks like a 4 year cycle, it acts like a 4 year cycle, chances are it's a 4 year cycle. That means I expect the top to form in Q4 of 2025 or early Q1 2026.BTC/Gold ratio, Gold generally leads BTC breaks out by 60-90 days, couple wit ...