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Core Viewpoint - The Indian rupee is experiencing its largest annual decline in three years, primarily due to record equity outflows and the absence of a trade deal with the U.S., which has hindered its recovery compared to other Asian currencies [1][13]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The rupee was quoted at 89.8650 per U.S. dollar, reflecting a 4.74% decline for the year, marking its worst performance since 2022 when it dropped nearly 10% [1][13]. - The currency has faced sustained depreciation pressure, falling to record lows and slipping past the 91 level at one point [1][13]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The performance of the rupee this year is largely attributed to capital flows, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) adopting a more flexible approach to the exchange rate [2][13]. - India's balance of payments has slipped into a historical deficit of approximately $22 billion between April and November, indicating significant external economic strains [2][13]. Group 3: Trade and Investment Outlook - A potential trade deal with the U.S. could provide temporary relief, possibly lifting the rupee to around 88.50 by March, although underlying pressures are expected to return [5][13]. - Foreign investors withdrew a record $18 billion from Indian equities in 2025, contributing to the rupee's underperformance relative to its peers [8][13]. Group 4: RBI's Approach - Under the new leadership of Sanjay Malhotra, the RBI has become more tolerant of currency weakness, focusing on managing depreciation expectations rather than defending a specific exchange rate level [9][13]. - The RBI's interventions have aimed to counter speculative pressures, particularly evident when the rupee fell past the 91-per-dollar mark for the first time [9][13]. Group 5: Currency Valuation - The rupee's decline, alongside a rally in other currencies, suggests it is no longer overvalued, with India's trade-weighted real effective exchange rate dropping to 97.5 in November from 104.7 in January 2025 [10][13]. - A reading below 100 indicates that the rupee is undervalued, which may benefit exporters by cushioning their local currency earnings [11][13].

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Market Overview - Gold prices have surged to record highs since the onset of the Hamas-Israel war, influenced by the weakening US dollar and anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3] - Equities increased by 0.3% yesterday, with positive returns over the past week and month [4] - Bonds experienced a slight decline of 0.06% yesterday, following a 0.6% drop last week, but showed a 0.2% increase over the month [4] - Gold fell by 0.5% in the previous session, with weekly and monthly changes of -2.5% and 3.8%, respectively [4] - Commodities rose by 0.7% yesterday, reflecting positive returns for both the week and month [4] - Real Estate advanced by 0.3% yesterday, despite weekly and monthly declines of 3.5% and 2.1% [4] - Bitcoin gained 1.4% yesterday, after a drop of 1.1% last week and a significant 9% decline over the month [4] Investment Strategies - The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, consisting of 30 stocks, has a history of outperforming its benchmark, which includes the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap indices [5] - The HQ Portfolio has provided superior returns with reduced risk compared to the benchmark index, minimizing volatility [5] - Empirical Asset Management has integrated the Trefis HQ Portfolio into its asset allocation framework, aiming to deliver superior returns with reduced risk compared to the benchmark index [3]

Market Trends - Capital keeps flowing to BNB Chain [1] Visualization - A powerful visualization is presented [1]

Market Trends - USDC minting indicates increased capital inflow into the crypto market [1] - Rising stablecoin liquidity suggests growing market activity [1] - Tether's printing of $1 billion USDT signals further capital injection [1] Potential Implications - The crypto market may be preparing for a significant move [1]

Market Signals - USDT 增发 10 亿美元，预示着有新的资金流入加密货币市场 [1] - 行业关注这是否是买入信号，或者应该继续观望 [1]

Capital Flow - In August, investors allocated nearly $44.8 billion to emerging market stocks and debt portfolios, marking the highest level in almost a year [1] - Net inflows into China's bond and stock markets exceeded $39 billion [1] - Bond markets outside of China attracted $1.32 billion in inflows [1] - Equity markets outside of China experienced outflows of $7.4 billion after three consecutive months of inflows [1] Market Analysis - IIF economists noted that inflows increased across all countries/regions compared to the previous month, with China playing a significant role in portfolio allocation [1] - Investor positions appear increasingly sensitive to overall risk and policy noise, particularly in economies affected by external shocks or election cycles [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - TechnipFMC has established itself as a premier offshore equipment company with a strong backlog and higher margins through its Subsea two point zero offering [1][5] - The company is on track to book $30 billion in orders over the last three years and expects another $10 billion next year [7][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Subsea business has seen an increase in customer base and geographical reach, expanding from 10-12 customers to a broader market [8][10] - Subsea two point zero now represents over 50% of inbound orders, indicating a shift towards more predictable and efficient project execution [32][37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The offshore market is experiencing a resurgence, with increased confidence from clients leading to higher investments [5][15] - Brownfield investments are expected to continue growing due to their high returns and existing capital infrastructure [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on reducing cycle times and improving project delivery through its Subsea two point zero and integrated offerings [24][48] - TechnipFMC aims to maintain its competitive edge by ensuring predictable project execution and enhancing client confidence in offshore investments [25][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of the offshore resurgence and the company's ability to grow orders, revenue, and earnings [6][14] - The company acknowledges the need for continuous improvement in execution and delivery to meet higher industry standards [41][46] Other Important Information - TechnipFMC has built new facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE to enhance its international business capabilities [58][59] - The Surface Technologies business is primarily driven by the Middle East, with significant contributions from Saudi Arabia and the UAE [56][62] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the order book evolving? - The order book has expanded with more customers and projects, reflecting a growing interest in offshore investments [8][10] Question: What is the mix of orders between greenfield and brownfield? - The mix includes a surprising level of greenfield projects, with brownfields continuing to attract high levels of investment due to their better returns [14][16] Question: How does TechnipFMC differentiate itself from competitors? - The company competes for capital flows, emphasizing the quality of offshore reservoirs and the ability to deliver projects on time and within budget [22][24] Question: What is the significance of Subsea two point zero? - Subsea two point zero allows for more predictable project execution and has become a significant portion of the order book, driving future earnings growth [32][33] Question: What are the key markets for the Surface Technologies business? - The key markets include the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are technically challenging but align with the company's strengths [56][62]

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