26 January 2026 Global Aerospace & Defense US Defense: Land of Confusion? Answers - but, more questions; And Q4 preview Douglas S. Harned, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8430 douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.com Adrien Rabier +44 20 7676 6820 adrien.rabier@bernsteinsg.com Jennifer Ma +1 917 344 8408 jennifer.ma@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Steve Song +1 917 344 8401 steve.song@bernsteinsg.com US defense stocks outperformed during the first three weeks of 2026, as geopolitical tensions rose and President Trump reiterated hi ...

Group 1 - President Trump proposes increasing the Pentagon's budget for 2027 to $1.5 trillion, up from the originally proposed $1 trillion, which could positively impact defense stocks like Lockheed Martin (LMT) [1] - The defense budget for 2026 is set at $901 billion, indicating a significant investment in national defense [1] - Following the budget proposal, LMT stock has risen nearly 7% in the last five days, including a 5% increase on January 9 [2] Group 2 - Lockheed Martin is the largest defense contractor globally, with a market capitalization of $127 billion, producing military aircraft and missile systems [4] - Over the past year, LMT stock has increased almost 16%, lagging behind the S&P 500's 19% gain and other defense companies like RTX (up 65%) and Northrop Grumman (up 32%) [5] - A challenging second quarter in 2025 resulted in $1.6 billion in charges for Lockheed Martin, but the stock has since recovered, rising around 30% since August 2025 [6] Group 3 - Lockheed Martin's current forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 18.4, which is favorable compared to its competitors [7] - The company offers a quarterly dividend yield of 2.54%, translating to approximately $250 annually for a $10,000 investment [7]

Group 1: Company Overview - L3Harris Technologies (NYSE:LHX) is a significant player in the defense sector, providing advanced technology solutions including communication systems, electronic warfare, and avionics [1] - The company competes with major defense firms such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, focusing on innovation and government contracts [1] Group 2: Market Performance - As of the latest data, LHX is priced at $337.73, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.87% or $2.95, with a trading range today between $337.67 and $361.59 [4] - Over the past year, LHX has seen a high of $361.59 and a low of $193.09, with a current market capitalization of approximately $63.18 billion [4] - Today's trading volume for LHX is 3,416,357 shares, indicating active investor interest [5] Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley has maintained an "Overweight" rating for LHX, suggesting a belief that the stock will outperform the average market return [2][6] - The proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget by President Trump is expected to create significant opportunities for L3Harris, benefiting income investors [3][6] - The strategic positioning of L3Harris and its government contracts may offer substantial growth potential in the evolving defense sector [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **US Defense** sector, particularly in light of recent statements and an Executive Order from President Trump that have created volatility in defense stocks [1][2]. Core Points and Arguments - **Executive Compensation and Performance**: President Trump proposed limiting executive compensation, banning dividends, and share buybacks during periods of underperformance to encourage companies to invest in product development and efficiency [2]. - **Raytheon (RTX) Targeted**: Raytheon was specifically mentioned as a "worst offender" in terms of underperformance, raising questions about the definition of underperformance and how it will be enforced [2][3]. - **Pentagon's Role**: The Pentagon's historical issues, such as ill-conceived weapons systems and bureaucratic processes, are seen as significant contributors to the industry's performance problems. A new acquisition process is being developed to address these issues [3]. - **Budget Increase**: The proposed defense budget for 2027 is set to rise to **$1.5 trillion**, up from **$964 billion** for 2026, indicating a clear upward trend in defense spending [4]. - **Implementation Challenges**: The feasibility of implementing the proposed changes and the new acquisition process is questioned, with concerns about how it will affect defense company economics [3][5]. - **Congressional Approval**: There are uncertainties regarding whether the proposed budget can pass through Congress, especially given the potential need for reconciliation without Democratic support [6]. Investment Implications - The initial posts and Executive Order are viewed as negative for defense stocks due to constraints on companies, particularly Raytheon. However, the proposed budget increase is seen as a positive factor for the overall defense sector [7]. Additional Insights - The lack of a Future Years Defense Plan (FYDP) is causing frustration among Republican defense leaders, complicating the prioritization of spending [6]. - The potential conflict between increased spending and efficiency goals is highlighted, as the proposed budget increase may contradict the administration's push for improved efficiency in the defense sector [6]. - The consolidation of the defense industry means there are few new competitors to challenge existing companies, which may limit the effectiveness of the proposed changes [5]. Financial Metrics - The conference call includes a table with adjusted EPS and P/E ratios for various defense companies, indicating performance expectations for 2024 to 2026 [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the US Defense sector, highlighting the implications of recent government actions and the overall outlook for defense stocks.

Core Viewpoint - Lockheed Martin (LMT) faces challenges due to President Trump's executive order preventing defense companies from returning capital to shareholders, impacting its dividend yield of approximately 2.67% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Lockheed Martin stock has increased nearly 26% compared to its 52-week low [2] - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 1.59x, indicating it is not particularly expensive to own in 2026 [5] Group 2: Future Prospects - President Trump proposed a significant $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal 2027, nearly double the previous year's $850 billion, which could provide robust future revenue opportunities for Lockheed Martin [3] - The Pentagon's recent seven-year contract to triple Patriot missile production to about 2,000 units further enhances long-term revenue potential for defense contractors like Lockheed Martin [4] Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - Lockheed Martin exceeded Street expectations in its latest quarter, leading management to raise its earnings outlook for the full year, which supports a bullish sentiment among analysts [6] - The consensus rating on Lockheed Martin stock remains at "Moderate Buy," with price targets reaching as high as $605, suggesting a potential upside of about 15% [8]

Group 1 - President Trump announced a desire to increase the defense budget to $1.5 trillion for the year 2027, emphasizing the need for a stronger military to ensure national security [1] - Defense stocks are experiencing a surge, with Kratos Defense & Security (NASDAQ: KTOS) seeing a significant increase of 17.7% [1] - The President did not specify the allocation of the $1.5 trillion or which companies would benefit, but emphasized that defense companies must invest in weapons production and maintenance rather than increasing executive compensation or returning capital to shareholders [3] Group 2 - Trump criticized defense companies for high executive compensation, proposing a cap of $5 million per year for defense CEOs and suggesting a ban on dividends and stock buybacks until companies address these concerns [4] - The proposed defense budget could significantly boost revenue growth for Kratos, which has already seen an average annual increase of 12% over the past five years [7] - However, increased capital expenditures required by the new budget could negatively impact profit margins for Kratos, which only recently became profitable in 2024 [8]

Core Insights - Trump's executive order targets defense contractors, prohibiting dividends and buybacks until they invest in production capacity, specifically calling out RTX for prioritizing shareholder returns over military needs [5][6][9] - A proposed $1.5 trillion military budget is expected to benefit major defense contractors like Lockheed Martin, RTX, and General Dynamics, potentially driving revenue growth despite short-term payout restrictions [4][10] Lockheed Martin - Lockheed Martin is the largest defense contractor globally, with a market capitalization of $115 billion and $73.3 billion in sales, returning significant capital to investors through dividends and buybacks [3] - In 2024, Lockheed paid $3.1 billion in dividends and repurchased $3.7 billion in shares, with $2.3 billion in dividends and buybacks reported in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - The company reported record F-35 deliveries of 191 jets in 2025, driven by strong global demand [1] RTX - RTX is the second-largest defense contractor with a market cap of $249 billion and sales of $86 billion, generating 50% to 60% of its revenue from government contracts [7] - The company has returned substantial capital to shareholders, with dividends of $3.2 billion in 2024 and buybacks of $444 million, but faced criticism for aggressive shareholder rewards [8][9] - Trump's order could halt RTX's payouts and threaten its contract eligibility unless it increases investments in production facilities [9] General Dynamics - General Dynamics has a market cap of $93 billion and $51.5 billion in sales, with nearly 80% of its revenue from government contracts [12] - The company returned approximately $1.5 billion in dividends in 2024 and raised its quarterly dividend to $1.50 per share for 2025, totaling near $1.2 billion [13] - General Dynamics' stock performance was strong, with a 26% gain in 2025, and the proposed defense budget is expected to bolster its diverse operations [14]

Core Viewpoint - The defense sector, particularly Lockheed Martin, experienced a significant decline in stock price due to President Trump's proposal to cancel shareholder-friendly measures [1][7]. Group 1: Trump's Proposed Restrictions - President Trump aims to increase the defense budget and accelerate production in the defense industry while proposing to limit dividend payouts and share repurchase programs [2]. - Trump criticized defense contractors for allocating substantial capital to dividends and stock buybacks, insisting that this practice should no longer be tolerated [3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - Lockheed Martin, as a major player in the defense sector, is likely to be directly affected by Trump's proposed changes, alongside other companies in the industry [3]. - Despite Trump's strong rhetoric, he lacks the unilateral power to implement these measures, indicating potential resistance from company executives, shareholders, and politicians [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Analysts suggest caution regarding investments in Lockheed Martin, as it was not included in a list of top stock recommendations, indicating potential better opportunities elsewhere [8].

Core Insights - Geopolitical instability has significantly boosted the growth of defense companies like Boeing and RTX Corporation, with increased defense budgets from the U.S. and its allies in response to rising global tensions [1][2] Defense Budget Trends - The increase in defense budgets is aimed at modernization and technical superiority, with a focus on enhancing military readiness and investing in advanced weapons systems [2] - The proposed fiscal 2026 defense budget under the Trump administration includes a 13.4% increase, raising total defense spending to approximately $1.01 trillion, emphasizing advanced aircraft and space initiatives [4] Boeing's Position - Boeing's Defense, Space & Security (BDS) segment is set for growth, benefiting from a diverse defense portfolio and a $76 billion backlog, with a 25% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 2025 [5][14] - The company secured $9 billion in contract awards in Q3 2025, with significant funding allocated for programs like the F-15EX and the Space Force [4][5] RTX's Position - RTX has received strong orders for its defense products, achieving $15.9 billion in bookings during Q3 2025, including notable contracts for air and missile defense systems [6][14] - The company maintains a solid defense backlog of $103 billion, indicating robust growth prospects for both domestic and international defense programs [7][14] Financial Comparisons - Boeing's earnings per share (EPS) estimates have decreased by 146.25% and 47.64% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, while RTX's EPS estimates have increased by 0.81% and 0.90% [8][10] - Boeing's shares trade at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 1.75X, compared to RTX's 2.69X, indicating differing valuations [11] - Boeing's total debt to capital stands at 118.3%, significantly higher than RTX's 37.05%, reflecting better debt management by RTX [12] Price Performance - Over the past six months, Boeing's shares have increased by 1.6%, while RTX's shares have risen by 28.8%, showcasing stronger momentum for RTX [13] Investment Recommendation - Currently, RTX is favored due to its better price performance, strong earnings growth, and superior debt management compared to Boeing, although both companies hold a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [15]

Industry Overview - The aerospace and defense industry is experiencing strong growth due to rising global air travel and increased defense spending, with a proposed 13% increase in the U.S. defense budget [1][5] - The industry includes companies that design and manufacture a variety of heavy-built products, including commercial and military jets, helicopters, combat vehicles, and military satellites [2] - Cybersecurity players and defense contractors providing spare parts and maintenance services are also part of the industry [3] Growth Drivers - Global air passenger traffic increased by 4.6% year over year in August 2025, with a projected growth of 5.8% in 2025, benefiting aerospace and defense companies [4] - The proposed increase in the U.S. defense budget to $1.01 trillion for fiscal 2026 is expected to enhance production volumes and contract opportunities for defense-focused companies [5] Challenges - Supply-chain disruptions from the pandemic continue to hinder growth, with aircraft deliveries currently 30% below peak levels and a backlog of 17,000 units [6][7] - Smaller suppliers, particularly those linked to commercial aerospace, are disproportionately affected by these supply-chain issues [7] Market Performance - The aerospace-defense industry has outperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite, with a 27% increase in stock prices over the past year, compared to 18.7% for the S&P 500 [12] - However, the industry is ranked in the bottom 29% of Zacks industries, indicating a negative earnings outlook [8][10] Valuation - The industry is currently trading at an EV/Sales ratio of 3.26X, lower than the S&P 500's 5.81X and the sector's 3.45X [15] Key Companies - **L3Harris Technologies**: Projected sales growth of 2.1% for 2025, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 13.02% [18][19] - **GE Aerospace**: Reported a 24% year-over-year revenue increase to $12.2 billion, with adjusted EPS up 44% [21][22] - **General Dynamics**: Achieved a 10.6% revenue increase to $12.91 billion, with adjusted EPS up 15.8% [24][25]