Hi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 2-3X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficienci ...

Hi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 2-3X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficienci ...

Since my last coverage , Block, Inc. (NYSE: XYZ ) is down by 10% underperforming the S&P 500’s 5% gain. This points to near-term concerns around macro consumer weakness and delayed monetization. At that time, the thesis was basedHi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. busi ...

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) has significantly outperformed the S&P 500, with a return of over 44% since the last coverage [1] Company Analysis - The previous analysis focused on Rigetti's market opportunity and a major deal with Quanta [1] - Current analysis emphasizes the company's leadership and management, highlighting a proven track record in scaling businesses and smart capital allocation [1] - Rigetti demonstrates consistent revenue growth and credible guidance, indicating strong financial health [1] Market Positioning - The company possesses a strong technology moat and first-mover advantage, which are critical for market disruption [1] - Rigetti benefits from network effects that drive exponential growth and has achieved market penetration in high-growth industries [1] Financial Health - Rigetti shows sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow and a strong balance sheet, ensuring long-term survival [1] - The company avoids excessive dilution and maintains financial strength, which is essential for risk management [1] Investment Methodology - The investment strategy focuses on identifying high-conviction opportunities with a balanced portfolio construction [1] - Core positions (50-70%) are high-confidence, stable plays, while growth bets (20-40%) are high-risk, high-reward opportunities [1] - Speculative investments (5-10%) are aimed at moonshot disruptors with massive potential [1]

Group 1 - The market currently views Broadcom (AVGO) as a typical semiconductor company benefiting from AI capital expenditures, but this perspective is outdated and potentially risky [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying high-potential investment opportunities that can yield significant returns while managing risks effectively [1] - Key factors for investment consideration include leadership and management effectiveness, market disruption potential, financial health, and valuation metrics [1] Group 2 - Leadership and management analysis focuses on proven business scaling, smart capital allocation, and consistent revenue growth [1] - Market disruption is driven by strong technology advantages, network effects, and penetration in high-growth sectors [1] - Financial health is characterized by sustainable revenue growth, efficient cash flow, and a robust balance sheet [1]

Core Insights - Pythia Research specializes in identifying multi-bagger stocks, particularly within the technology sector, utilizing a blend of financial analysis, behavioral finance, psychology, social sciences, and alternative metrics to evaluate companies with high conviction and asymmetric risk-reward potential [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company employs a multidisciplinary strategy to uncover breakout opportunities before they gain mainstream attention, focusing on market sentiment and emerging trends [1] - Pythia Research emphasizes the importance of understanding investor behavior, including biases such as anchoring to past valuations and herd mentality, which can create persistent market inefficiencies [1] - The approach involves analyzing psychological noise rather than avoiding it, assessing whether market volatility is driven by emotion or fundamentals [1] Group 2: Opportunity Identification - The firm looks for disconnects in the market, particularly in companies that are redefining their categories or have unconventional growth paths that may be overlooked due to fear of uncertainty [1] - Key signals for identifying potential exponential growth include sudden shifts in narrative, early social traction, founder-driven vision, and underappreciated momentum in user adoption [1] - Each investment opportunity is evaluated based on its risk/reward profile, focusing on limited downside and explosive upside potential [1]

Core Insights - Rocket Lab's stock has increased by 67.7% since the last coverage, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which rose by 7.4% [1] Company Analysis - The previous 'buy' recommendation was based on Q1-FY25 results, backlog, and Rocket Lab's vision for the infrastructure layer [1] - The company demonstrates a proven track record in scaling businesses, smart capital allocation, and insider ownership [1] - Rocket Lab shows consistent revenue growth and credible guidance, indicating strong management [1] Market Positioning - The company possesses a strong technology moat and first-mover advantage, which are critical for market disruption [1] - Network effects are driving exponential growth, with significant market penetration in high-growth industries [1] Financial Health - Rocket Lab exhibits sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow and a strong balance sheet [1] - The company has a long-term survival runway and avoids excessive dilution and financial weakness [1] Investment Methodology - The investment strategy focuses on identifying high-conviction opportunities with a strong margin of safety [1] - The portfolio construction includes core positions (50-70%), growth bets (20-40%), and speculative investments (5-10%) [1]

Group 1 - Microsoft announced plans to eliminate 9,000 jobs to reduce redundancy and encourage employees to focus on more meaningful work through new technologies [3][5] - The layoffs included various roles, such as game design workers, audio designers, mechanical engineers, optical engineers, lab technicians, and staff from the Microsoft Research division [2][4] - The company experienced a growth of 8% in revenue from Xbox content and services, which was lower than the overall growth of 13% [4] Group 2 - The layoffs affected multiple departments, including sales, customer success account management, and cloud solution architecture, with specific numbers of staff laid off in each area [4][5] - CEO Satya Nadella has not publicly commented on the layoffs, and the company has not provided immediate comments regarding the cuts in Washington [5] - Microsoft CFO Amy Hood indicated a focus on cost efficiencies during the March quarter, reflecting the company's strategy amidst the layoffs [5]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, Inc. demonstrated resilience in its beer segment despite a slight dip in overall sales, allowing the company to reaffirm its full-year guidance amidst a challenging market [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported fiscal first-quarter earnings per share of $3.22, which was below the $3.30 consensus but above Bank of America’s estimate of $3.00, driven by stronger-than-expected beer gross margins and lower SG&A costs [2]. - Total sales were slightly below expectations due to softness in both beer and wine & spirits, but the company maintained its fiscal year guidance, which may raise skepticism given the weaker first-quarter trends [3]. Segment Analysis - The beer segment is expected to improve starting in the second quarter, aided by easier comparisons, although June scanner data indicated mid-single-digit declines [4]. - Depletions in the beer segment fell 2.6% year-over-year in the first quarter, slightly worse than Bank of America’s estimate but in line with consensus, while shipments declined by 3.3% [4]. Operational Insights - The quarter had one less selling day, negatively impacting shipment and depletion growth rates by more than 1%. No further selling day impacts are expected for the remainder of fiscal year 2026 [5]. - Gross margins in the beer segment exceeded forecasts at 53.1%, attributed to approximately $40 million in cost and operational efficiencies. Marketing spend was $201 million, lower than the estimated $220 million, and is expected to be concentrated in the first half of the fiscal year [5]. Wine & Spirits Performance - The Wine & Spirits segment underperformed with sales of $280.5 million, although operating losses of $6 million were better than anticipated [6]. Market Valuation - Bank of America analyst Peter T. Galbo maintained a Neutral rating on Constellation Brands with a price forecast of $180, reflecting a justified discount to their 5-year average due to ongoing challenges in the beer segment, including softer demand from Hispanic consumers and broader industry headwinds [6].

Investment Strategy - The company focuses on identifying high-potential winners before they break out, emphasizing asymmetric opportunities with an upside potential of 2-3 times outweighing the downside risk [1] - The investment methodology includes leadership and management analysis, market disruption and competitive positioning, financial health and risk management, valuation and asymmetric risk/reward, and portfolio construction and risk control [1] Leadership & Management Analysis - Proven track record in scaling businesses is essential for investment decisions [1] - Smart capital allocation and insider ownership are key factors [1] - Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance are prioritized [1] Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning - A strong technology moat and first-mover advantage are critical for success [1] - Network effects that drive exponential growth are sought after [1] - Market penetration in high-growth industries is a focus area [1] Financial Health & Risk Management - Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow is necessary for long-term viability [1] - A strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway are essential [1] - Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness is a priority [1] Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward - Revenue multiples compared to peers and DCF modeling are used for valuation [1] - Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis are considered [1] - Ensuring downside protection while maximizing upside potential is a key strategy [1] Portfolio Construction & Risk Control - Core positions (50-70%) consist of high-confidence, stable plays [1] - Growth bets (20-40%) are allocated to high-risk, high-reward opportunities [1] - Speculative investments (5-10%) are made in moonshot disruptors with massive potential [1]