Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company generated TCE revenues of $236 million, resulting in an EBITDA of $152 million and a net profit of $78 million, reflecting a $25 million increase in EBITDA compared to the previous quarter [15][16] - The fleet-wide TCE rates averaged $31,012 per day, with LR2s earning above $38,000, LR1s around $29,500, and MRs exceeding $28,000 per day, indicating strengthened freight rates supported by solid market fundamentals [15][16] - Earnings per share for Q3 came in at $0.79, with a declared dividend of $0.62 per share, representing a payout ratio of 78% [16][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company advanced its fleet optimization strategy by acquiring five vessels, including four MR and one LR2, while divesting a 2007 built MR [2][3] - A three-year time charter was agreed for a 2009-built MR vessel at a daily rate of $22,234, which is above the prevailing market rate for such vintage [2][3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Product tanker rates remained stable and attractive, with benchmark earnings for MR and LR2 vessels showing resilience [6][10] - Trade volumes increased significantly in Q3, driven by higher middle distillate flows from east to west, which lifted ton-miles above levels seen before the Red Sea disruption [6][7] - Two refineries in Northwest Europe closed, representing 6% of the region's refining capacity, increasing reliance on imported middle distillates [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a modern, high-quality fleet and is in negotiations for longer-term charters due to favorable market conditions [3][4] - The company aims to navigate the current market environment of elevated uncertainty with a strong capital structure and operational leverage [14][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while the macro environment remains dynamic due to geopolitical uncertainty, market sentiment is broadly positive, with solid momentum supported by firm rates across all vessel segments [3][19] - The company increased the midpoint of its TCE guidance by $25 million to $900 million, reflecting secured coverage and current market expectations [19][20] Other Important Information - The company's net interest-bearing debt stands at $690 million, corresponding to around 24% of its capital structure, with only $122 million in borrowings maturing over the next 12 months [17][18] - The company has repurchased 13 out of 22 leaseback vessels, with additional purchase options exercised [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did the company manage to secure a long-term charter for an older vessel? - Management highlighted the integrated platform that allows for consistent service quality across all vessels, regardless of age, and noted ongoing negotiations for longer-term deals due to favorable market conditions [31][32] Question: What factors influenced the decision to acquire older vessels? - The company considers multiple metrics, including internal return hurdles and cash breakeven levels, ensuring that acquisitions meet their return requirements [34][35] Question: What is the company's approach to dividends going forward? - The dividend policy is designed to distribute free liquidity generated throughout the quarter, correlated to cash flow break-even levels, with a focus on maintaining a satisfactory payout ratio [53][56] Question: Why was the reported interest expense higher this quarter? - The increase was attributed to the accounting treatment of refinancing and upfront fees, which is expected to normalize in the following quarter [62][64]

Financial Performance - The company's TCE for Q3 2025 was USD 236 million, an increase from USD 208 million in Q2 2025[7] - EBITDA for Q3 2025 reached USD 152 million, up from USD 127 million in Q2 2025[7] - Net profit for Q3 2025 was USD 78 million, compared to USD 59 million in Q2 2025[7] - The company's basic earnings per share increased to USD 0.79 in Q3 2025, from USD 0.60 in Q2 2025[30] - The dividend per share increased to USD 0.62 in Q3 2025, from USD 0.40 in Q2 2025, with a dividend payout ratio of 78%[30] Market Dynamics - Trade volumes in Q3 increased by 4% compared to Q2 and 2% year-over-year[16] - The product tanker capacity trading CPP is down by 1% versus nominal fleet growth of 5%[26] Fleet and Strategy - The company's fleet size remained constant at 88 vessels between Q2 and Q3 2025[7] - The company acquired one 2010-built LR2 and four 2014-built MR vessels and sold one 2007-built MR vessel[9] Outlook - The company expects TCE earnings to be USD 875 - 925 million and EBITDA to be USD 540 - 590 million for 2025[54] - 55% of Q4 2025 is covered at USD 30,156 per day[53]

Q3 2025 Performance - Organic sales increased by 9% due to favorable pricing, pull-forward demand, and volume[5, 10, 32] - Adjusted operating margin expanded by 140 bps to 18.5%[5, 11, 12, 35] - Adjusted EPS increased by 23% from $2.03 to $2.50[13, 14] - Free cash flow increased by 6% from $204 million to $216 million[15, 16] Segment Performance - Americas sales increased organically by 13%, with acquisitions adding $11 million, reaching $464 million[19] - Europe sales decreased organically by 2%, but benefited from a $7 million FX impact, totaling $112 million[19] - APMEA sales remained flat organically at $36 million[19] - Americas adjusted operating margin increased by 180 bps to 23.7%[19] - Europe adjusted operating margin increased by 160 bps to 12.2%[19] - APMEA adjusted operating margin increased by 90 bps to 19.4%[19] Full Year 2025 Outlook - The company raised its full-year reported sales growth outlook to +7% to +8%, with organic growth of +4% to +5%[6, 20, 43] - The company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin outlook to 21.5% to 21.6%, an increase of +140 bps to +150 bps[6, 20]

Core Insights - Small caps are generally US-based companies with a majority of sales from the US, contrasting with large caps that have a higher percentage of foreign sales [1] - In times of geopolitical uncertainty, investors may prefer small caps as a hedge due to the perceived stability of the US economy [1] Company Summaries MIND Technology, Inc. (MIND) - MIND Technology is based in The Woodlands, TX, providing technology solutions for oceanographic, hydrographic, seismic, and maritime security industries [3] - For the six months ended July 2025, over 56% of MIND's revenue came from Norway, highlighting its reliance on international sales [3] - In Q2 fiscal 2026, MIND reported a net income of $0.24 per share, a turnaround from a net loss of $0.11 per share in the prior year, with revenues of $13.6 million, a 35% increase from $10 million year-over-year [4] Perma-Pipe International Holdings, Inc. (PPIH) - PPIH, headquartered in Rolling Meadows, IL, specializes in manufacturing specialty piping systems and leak detection systems [6] - The company has received approval from Aramco, expanding its total addressable market and aligning with Saudi Vision 2030 objectives [7] - In Q2, PPIH reported net sales of $47.9 million, a 27.7% increase from $37.5 million in the same period last year, driven by stronger sales in the Middle East and North America [8] - As of FY ending January 31, 2025, 67% of PPIH's sales were to foreign customers, indicating a significant international market presence [8]

Group 1 - Alphyn Capital Management's Master Account returned 3.0% net in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 Index which returned 8.1% [1] - As of Q3 2025, the top ten holdings represented approximately 68% of the portfolio, with around 17% held in cash [1] - The market narrative in Q3 2025 was influenced by advancements in AI, credit cycles, and geopolitical uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) had a one-month return of 10.83% and a 52-week gain of 57.72%, closing at $269.93 per share on October 27, 2025, with a market capitalization of $3.26 trillion [2] - The rise in Alphabet Inc.'s shares was partly due to the resolution of a major regulatory overhang, specifically the DOJ antitrust case concerning Search [3] - The court's remedies decision on September 2nd was less severe than anticipated, allowing Google to continue compensating partners for non-exclusive default status while imposing some restrictions [3]

Core Insights - Consumer confidence has reached its lowest level since April, indicating a significant decline in economic sentiment [1] - The drop in consumer confidence is attributed to slumping income expectations, which are influenced by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rising inflation [1] Summary by Categories Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence has decreased to its lowest point since April [1] - This decline reflects a broader concern among consumers regarding economic stability [1] Income Expectations - There has been a notable slump in income expectations among consumers [1] - The decrease in income expectations is a critical factor contributing to the overall decline in consumer confidence [1] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Continued geopolitical uncertainty is impacting consumer sentiment negatively [1] - Higher inflation rates are also contributing to the decline in consumer confidence and income expectations [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have surged past $4,200 an ounce for the first time, driven by rising expectations of US interest rate cuts and increased geopolitical uncertainty, resulting in a 60% increase in gold prices this year [2][45]. - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include strong central bank buying, a trend towards dollarization, and robust inflows into ETFs [3]. Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - President Trump has threatened China with a cooking oil embargo due to China's refusal to purchase US soybeans, which has raised concerns about the status of ongoing trade talks [3][4]. - China, previously the largest buyer of US soybeans, has not made any purchases in recent months, with last year's purchases amounting to $12.8 billion [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Expectations for further US Federal Reserve rate cuts have increased, with Fed officials indicating two more cuts may occur this year, particularly following comments from Chairman Jerome Powell [5][6]. - Powell noted that the Fed's balance sheet currently stands at $6.5 trillion, nearly 60% larger than at the start of 2020, and indicated that the Fed may soon stop shrinking its balance sheet [8][9]. Group 4: Bank Earnings - Major banks, including Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, and Citigroup, reported strong earnings, with Bank of America exceeding expectations with net interest income of $15.2 billion and earnings per share of $2.80 [10][12][48]. - The overall banking sector is experiencing a positive earnings season, with banks benefiting from a booming market for deal-making and securities trading, despite broader economic concerns [11][41]. Group 5: Fintech Developments - Wise, a leading money transfer platform, is moving its primary listing to New York while maintaining a presence in London, aiming to improve price transparency and access for non-bank financial institutions [16][18]. - Wise's infrastructure allows for faster international money transfers, with 70% of transactions arriving instantly, benefiting both consumers and traditional banks that integrate Wise's systems [22][24]. Group 6: Trending Stocks - ASML, a Dutch chipmaker, saw its stock rise over 4% following a strong earnings report, despite a decline in orders from China [28]. - LVMH reported a return to growth, with its stock up over 14%, driven by improved sales in luxury goods, particularly in China [29]. - Stellantis announced a $13 billion investment in US production, marking the largest single investment in the company's history, which positively impacted its stock performance [31].

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1021.45 tons of gold as of October 14, 2025, reflecting an increase of 2.57 tons from the previous trading day, amidst significant fluctuations in gold prices [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of October 14, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings reached 1021.45 tons, up by 2.57 tons from the prior day [5]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings over the past two trading days totals more than 4 tons [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On October 14, gold prices experienced volatility, dropping to a low of $4090.49 per ounce and peaking at $4179.47 per ounce, closing at $4142.01 per ounce, a rise of $31.56 or 0.77% [5]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged by 57%, surpassing the $4100 per ounce mark for the first time, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, economic unpredictability, expectations of interest rate cuts, strong central bank purchases, and inflows into ETFs [5]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The sharp fluctuations in gold prices on October 14 were attributed to sudden market sentiment changes, with analysts predicting increased volatility due to profit-taking and bottom-fishing activities [6]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing trade tensions are providing strong support for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on October 29 remain high at 96%, indicating sustained investor anticipation for accommodative monetary policy [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold maintains an upward trend, with the relative strength index indicating accumulating buying momentum, and prices above all moving averages suggesting bullish sentiment [7]. - A breakthrough above $4155 could open further upside potential, targeting historical highs near $4180, with subsequent resistance levels at $4200, $4250, and $4300 [7]. - Conversely, failure to break the upper boundary of the month-long upward channel (currently at $4162 per ounce) may lead to a corrective pullback, potentially testing the lower boundary at $4015 [7].

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged nearly 50% this year, reaching over $4,000 per ounce, with projections suggesting a potential rise to $10,000 by 2028 if current trends continue [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent increase in gold prices is attributed to President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China, which has led to a decline in investor confidence in the U.S. dollar [1][2]. - Stocks experienced their worst loss since April, reinforcing gold's status as a safe haven asset as it jumped 1.5% [2]. - The Federal Reserve's shift towards rate cuts has contributed to rising gold prices, as policymakers focus on a stagnating labor market rather than solely combating inflation [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Factors driving gold's appeal include inflation hedging, central banks de-dollarizing, and geopolitical tensions stemming from Trump's trade policies [3]. - The increasing debt levels among developed economies have made investors wary of global currencies, leading to a preference for precious metals and bitcoin [5]. - The market is experiencing a "FOMO" (Fear of Missing Out) effect, complicating the objective valuation of gold, although the pace of price increases may slow as key supportive factors weaken [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - Market expert Ed Yardeni has revised his gold price target to $5,000 by 2026, with a potential for $10,000 by the end of the decade based on current trajectories [3]. - Capital Economics' Hamad Hussain highlights that while bullish factors like Fed rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainty support rising prices, recent market exuberance is evident as gold rallied despite a stable dollar and higher inflation-protected bond yields [7].

Core Insights - The article provides a market analysis focusing on the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and the US Dollar Index Futures, indicating trends and potential investment opportunities in these currencies [1] Group 1: Australian Dollar Analysis - The Australian Dollar's performance against the US Dollar is analyzed, highlighting its fluctuations and potential impacts on trade and investment [1] - Key economic indicators influencing the Australian Dollar are discussed, including commodity prices and interest rate changes [1] Group 2: New Zealand Dollar Analysis - The New Zealand Dollar's exchange rate with the US Dollar is examined, with emphasis on its correlation with agricultural exports and global market trends [1] - Insights into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy and its effects on the currency's strength are provided [1] Group 3: US Dollar Index Futures - The US Dollar Index Futures are analyzed, showcasing their role as a benchmark for the dollar's performance against a basket of currencies [1] - Market sentiment and economic data releases that could influence the US Dollar Index are highlighted, indicating potential volatility [1]