I think we've seen this movie before. The expectation is that this lasts a few days, but who knows. And where I'm really focused right now, given that the fiscal impact is supposed to be minimal, it's really turning my attention to the labor market in particular.So we know that there will be a for a furlough of around 40% of federal workers, around 900,000 and a delay in pay for all federal workers. Now, the Trump administration has said that they're looking to make some of that permanent, and that could pe ...

Poland’s government plans to offer more local-currency bonds than ever this quarter in a sign of confidence over continued investor demand after the cabinet warned about growing public debt https://t.co/c7zq3bgPzJ ...

Poland’s public debt is set to breach a threshold in 2028 that would trigger austerity measures, complicating government efforts to ramp up defense spending without unpopular cuts in welfare https://t.co/oL9jzS6kR7 ...

Issuance in Europe’s public debt market has set a new September record as borrowers from sovereigns to high-yield companies make the most of favorable conditions https://t.co/LBbtvplMJR ...

Portugal’s government bond rating was raised by Fitch Ratings, which cited a steady decline in the country’s public debt burden https://t.co/RmUuZ2sElq ...

Fitch signaled it may lower Poland’s A- credit score as public debt quickly grows and there’s limited prospects for the government to reduce its bulging budget deficit https://t.co/pGsg8NJdWG ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the macroeconomic outcomes for **China** and **the US** following the surge in public debt ratios after **Covid**. It compares the fiscal policies and economic implications of both countries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Public Debt Ratios**: Both China and the US have seen significant increases in public debt ratios since Covid, reaching **119% of GDP** in both economies, marking all-time highs (ex-Covid) [9][10][11] 2. **Divergent Economic Outcomes**: - China has maintained a focus on investment, while the US has increased household transfers, leading to different macroeconomic results. China has experienced **nine consecutive quarters of deflation**, whereas the US has faced inflation above target for the last four years [9][11][21] 3. **Fiscal Deficits**: - The US fiscal deficit is projected to widen to **7.1% of GDP** in 2026 from **6.1% in 2025**, while China's augmented fiscal deficit is expected to widen to **14% of GDP** in 2026 from **13% in 2025** [10][38] 4. **Spending Mix**: - The US deficit expansion has been driven by revenue deficits (non-capital expenditures), while China's augmented fiscal deficit is primarily driven by capital expenditures [11][12][14] 5. **Current Account Balances**: - The US has seen a widening current account deficit due to its revenue deficit expansion, while China maintains a current account surplus, driven by its focus on capital expenditure and manufacturing exports [16][19] 6. **Inflation Trends**: - The US has experienced above-target inflation, while China has faced persistent deflation, with the GDP deflator in negative territory for the past nine quarters [21][23] 7. **Private Debt Dynamics**: - In the US, private debt to GDP has decreased, while in China, it has remained high, contributing to an overall rising debt to GDP ratio [23][29] 8. **Nominal GDP Growth**: - China's nominal GDP growth has been weaker than that of the US, with projections indicating continued challenges in achieving robust growth [32][31] Additional Important Insights 1. **Demographic Challenges**: China's aging population is expected to increase the social welfare burden, leading to lower potential growth and demand shortfalls [56] 2. **Debt-Deflation Loop**: The report discusses the ongoing challenges of managing the debt-deflation loop in China, emphasizing the need for a shift in the growth model away from investment-driven growth [58][69] 3. **Policy Recommendations**: - The report suggests that China needs to cut excess capacity, accept lower GDP growth targets, and increase social welfare spending to boost domestic consumption and manage deflation [70][60] 4. **Investment vs. Consumption**: Policymakers in China continue to favor investment over consumption, which may exacerbate future debt burdens and deflationary pressures [64][66] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the contrasting fiscal policies and economic conditions of China and the US in the post-Covid landscape.

Public Finance Concerns - Poland's increased public debt and deficit are raising concerns [1] - The Prime Minister has been warned about the potential consequences of the rising debt and deficit [1]

Japan’s biggest bank industry group warned of the risks of a downgrade in the nation’s credit rating as politicians make election pledges that could swell the public debt. https://t.co/bHsgkCLmUx ...

Cryptocurrency & Public Finance - Binance 创始人 CZ 认为比特币可以解决大部分公共债务问题 [1]