A mixed picture emerged in mortgage rates one day after the start of the U.S. government shutdown, while a release of new jobs data raises concerns about the nation's economic picture. Ten-year Treasury yields, whose movements typically influence the direction of mortgage rates, sat at 4.08% as of Thursday afternoon, tumbling 11 basis points from its close one week ago. The average 30-year mortgage rate, though, moved in different directions over the same time period, according to various industry trackers. ...

LIVE Stock Market News: Dow Slips at the Open Last Updated: Treasury Yields, Dollar Diverge in 3Q By Paulo Trevisani, Dow Jones Newswires Treasury yields are on path for a third consecutive quarterly decline as markets face a potential U.S. government shutdown. The dollar, in turn, is likely to end the 3Q higher, despite recent weakness. Declining oil prices triggered by yesterday's reports of OPEC+ increasing production ease inflation concerns, which may be weighing down yields and the dollar. Investors ar ...

XRP’s push above $2.90 collapsed under heavy selling on Sept. 25, with a $277 million volume spike hammering price back to $2.75. The move erased more than $18 billion in market value over the past week and confirmed fresh resistance at $2.80, leaving traders bracing for a test of $2.70 support. News Background • XRP slid 5.83% over the Sept. 25–26 session, falling from $2.92 to $2.75 on heavy institutional selling.• A sharp rejection at $2.80 during the 17:00 hour triggered a 276.77 million volume spike ...

Market Trends & Technical Analysis - Shorting at or near all-time highs is generally not advisable due to the absence of resistance on the charts and positive momentum [2] - Deteriorating breadth in recent weeks may offer some shorting opportunities, but not on a broad basis [2] - The VIX is stabilizing and inching above its 50-day moving average; clearing its 200-day moving average at 1930% would be a risk indicator for the S&P 500 [3] - The 20-day moving average has been a valuable trend-following input since the April low [4] - Overbought conditions are not inherently negative, but downturns following overbought readings, indicated by stochastics or RSIs, should be monitored [8][9] Company Specific Analysis - Mega caps have diverged, with Microsoft and Nvidia underperforming, while Tesla and Alphabet have shown significant gains [6] - Losing support from other mega caps, especially Alphabet, could be detrimental to major indices [7] - Intel shows a confirmed breakout with potential upside, with initial resistance in line and secondary resistance targeting $38-$39 [9][10] - Intel provides technical diversity to a portfolio [11] Economic Indicators & Potential Risks - A seasonal pullback is anticipated between now and mid-October [7] - Treasury yields and the dollar index are near key support levels; a breakdown in 10-year yields below 400% could target 367%, with a further breakdown targeting 322% [12] - Initial pain may precede the positive impact of rate cut cycles [15] Cryptocurrency Analysis - Bitcoin has moved to a bearish short-term bias due to a short-term overbought downturn, within the context of an intermediate-term range following a long-term breakout [16] - Key support levels for Bitcoin are around $108 (former resistance) and the 200-day moving average around $103 [16][17]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has begun cutting the federal funds rate, leading to market excitement and expectations of more cuts by year-end [1] - Current average mortgage rates for a 30-year loan are at 6.26%, which has deterred many potential homeowners and investors [1] - Rate cuts are expected to lower mortgage rates, but the relationship between federal funds rate and mortgage rates is not direct, as lower borrowing rates may also increase housing prices [2][3] Group 2 - The federal funds rate influences lenders' offerings and housing demand indirectly, as mortgage rates are more closely tied to Treasury yields and the bond market [3] - The impact of the Fed's rate cuts on Treasury bonds will take time to materialize, potentially delaying the effects on mortgage rates until early 2026 [4]

Market Trends & Inflation - The bond market is heavily influenced by inflation, which is currently around 3% and edging higher, creating a stagflationary environment [3] - Inflation trends, rather than Federal Reserve actions, will primarily drive bond yields over the next 6 to 12 months [4] - There's hesitancy in longer-term bonds globally due to large fiscal deficits and concerns about inflation [6][7] Federal Reserve Policy & Impact - The market has already largely factored in the Federal Reserve cutting rates [2] - Cutting rates while the job market slows and inflation remains high presents a challenging situation for the bond market [3] - The Fed reducing its holdings of longer-term bonds raises concerns about whether private investors can compensate [7] - The possibility of the Fed matching its balance sheet maturities with Treasury issuance could impact long-term bond yields [10] - Quantitative tightening (QT) is important because the Fed's balance sheet management significantly influences borrowing costs [9] Mortgage Rates & Yield Curve - A Federal Reserve rate cut does not guarantee a decrease in mortgage rates; they could remain stable or even increase [4][5] - The yield curve may steepen even as the Fed cuts rates, as longer-term yields are influenced by inflation expectations, growth prospects, and supply and demand [5][6] - It's unlikely that mortgage rates will fall below 6% even after the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut [8]

The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage fell this week to its lowest level in nearly a year, reflecting a pullback in Treasury yields ahead of an expected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. The long-term rate eased to 6.35% from 6.5% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.2%. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, also fell. The average rate slipped to 5.5% from 5.6% last w ...

Market Trends & Potential Risks - Bond investors may be overly optimistic before today's CPI report [1] - US two-year Treasury yields reached their lowest point since April after a month-long rally [1]

Market Trends - Benchmark Treasury yields declined to multi-month lows [1] - Increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts starting this month [1] Economic Indicators - Additional evidence of labor-market cooling [1]

All right, welcome back. The July Federal Reserve minute shedding a little bit of light into the committee's conversations about where interest rates might go. Two members calling for cuts and now the focus of course shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.Rick Santelli joining us now. Rick, you put out a note to us internally about this. On one hand, they're talking about inflation and on the other hand, they're talking about weaker jobs.That's a tough combo. It i ...