Core Viewpoint - The current tariff program under the Trump administration creates uncertainty for investors, particularly as inflation rises and a potential recession looms, impacting companies reliant on consumer spending [1]. Retail Industry Overview - The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has partially recovered from the initial tariff shock but remains down over 1% year-to-date [2]. - Some retailers are struggling, while others may thrive due to unique business models [3]. Company-Specific Insights TJX Companies - TJX Companies, known for discount retailers like T.J. Maxx, has a 12-month stock price forecast of $141.06, indicating a 15.45% upside potential [4]. - The company has outperformed the XRT slightly and maintains brick-and-mortar strength through a unique model focusing on discounted finds [4][5]. - TJX reported over 5% year-over-year revenue growth and offers a dividend yield of 1.41%, with management recently increasing the dividend payout [5]. - Analysts are bullish on TJX, with 19 out of 20 rating it as a Buy, predicting a stock rise of over 17% [6]. Global-e Online - Global-e Online has a 12-month stock price forecast of $48.08, suggesting a 43.73% upside potential [7]. - The company facilitates international retail transactions for high-end brands and has seen a quarterly revenue growth of 30% year-over-year [9]. - Analysts are optimistic, with 12 out of 13 rating Global-e shares as a Buy, indicating a consensus price target of $48 per share [10]. Boot Barn - Boot Barn has a 12-month stock price forecast of $173.67, indicating a 1.68% upside potential [11]. - The company reported a 5% year-over-year same-store sales growth and plans to increase its store count by 14% [11]. - Despite tariff uncertainties, Boot Barn projects a 13% growth in total net sales and has seen its stock rise nearly 9% year-to-date [12]. - Analysts remain positive, with a consensus price target close to $174, suggesting over 5% upside potential [13].

Alcoa (AA) Q2 2025 Earnings Call July 16, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsLouis Langlois - SVP - Treasury & Capital MarketsWilliam Oplinger - President, CEO & DirectorMolly Beerman - EVP & CFOHenry Hearle - Equity Research AssociateBill Peterson - Equity ResearchJohn Tumazos - Owner & CEOGlyn Lawcock - Head of Resources ResearchConference Call ParticipantsKatja Jancic - Metals & Mining AnalystAlex Hacking - Equity Research Analyst - Metals & MiningDaniel Major - Metals & Mining AnalystChris LaFemina - ...

Japan equity weekly (10 July 2025) EQUITY: JAPAN STRATEGY Possible fresh round of pricing in tariff impacts starting in latter half of July Entering Q1 results season with share prices vulnerable to downside surprises; changes in foreign ownership at company level linked to ROE/cash & deposits/share buybacks Can TACO only take you so far? Fig. 1: Share price formation for companies likely to be affected by tariffs (End-2024 = 100) No disclosure of tariff impac OPIX Transportation equip Note: Individual comp ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil industry in China Core Insights - Chinese apparent oil demand showed year-on-year growth for the first time in three months, increasing by 160 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) to 15.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in May, driven by strong demand for petrochemicals and travel fuels during the Labour Day holiday [3][6] - Crude imports fell by 720 kb/d month-on-month (MoM) and 90 kb/d year-on-year (YoY) in May, attributed to peak refinery maintenance and high inventory levels [52][61] - Refinery throughput decreased by 200 kb/d MoM, with offline capacity reaching 2.1 mb/d due to maintenance at major state-owned refiners [5][64] - Diesel demand weakened, falling by 60 kb/d MoM and 220 kb/d YoY, influenced by the penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and a struggling real estate sector [12][15] - Jet fuel demand rose by 55 kb/d MoM, supported by increased travel during the Labour Day holiday, although it was down 120 kb/d YoY [26][34] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - Chinese apparent oil demand increased by 1% YoY in May, with strong naphtha demand as refiners replaced US LPG and ethane imports [3][6] - Crude imports softened further in May, with Iranian crude imports dropping by 40% MoM due to sanctions risk and high inventory levels [4][53] - Refinery throughput fell by 200 kb/d MoM, with all major state-owned refiners offline during peak maintenance [5][64] Product Exports and Imports - Refined product net exports weakened in May, with diesel exports reduced due to strong domestic margins [6][67] - Total product exports fell by 180 kb/d MoM and 220 kb/d YoY, driven by lower gasoline and fuel oil exports [68][93] - LPG imports decreased by 230 kb/d MoM due to a 125% tariff on US LPG, which was later reduced to 10% [76][41] Inventory Data - Crude stocks built rapidly in May, adding approximately 33 million barrels due to low refinery demand [156] - Observable product inventories drew by around 20 million barrels in May, with significant draws in diesel and gasoline stocks [157][161] Refining Data - Gasoline cracks averaged $14.0/bbl in May, down $2.0/bbl from April, while diesel cracks rose to $21.4/bbl [112][113] - Refinery output of diesel and gasoline declined in May, with jet fuel output increasing due to higher demand [141][147] Trade Quotas - China has released two batches of clean product export quotas for 2025, totaling 31.8 million tons, slightly lower YoY [98][100] - The allocation of quotas primarily favors state-owned companies, with Sinopec and PetroChina receiving about 72% of available quotas [98][100]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Gambol from Neutral to Buy, with a revised target price (TP) of Rmb120, indicating a 25% upside from the closing price on July 10 [9][33]. Core Insights - The pet food industry is experiencing significant growth, with Gambol's domestic sales expected to rise by 32% year-on-year in 2Q25, while the overall market remains fragmented, presenting opportunities for market share gains [2][9]. - The report anticipates a 19% year-on-year growth in Gambol's topline for 2Q25, driven by strong domestic performance despite challenges in overseas markets due to tariffs [1][11]. - New product development and domestic margin expansion are critical for future growth, with Gambol's innovative product offerings expected to capture market share from long-tail brands [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Gambol's stock price has declined by 25% since the downgrade to Neutral, but the report suggests this correction is overdone, providing a favorable entry point for investors [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit (NP) growth of -2% year-on-year in 2Q25, primarily due to increased expenses related to staff incentives and new factory depreciation [1][11]. Market Dynamics - The pet food market is characterized by a trend towards premiumization, with established brands like Gambol and China Pet Foods leading in sales growth [8][13]. - The report notes that long-tail brands represent 70% of the market share, indicating a potential for consolidation as consumers increasingly focus on food quality and functionality [2][9]. Financial Projections - For 2025E, Gambol's domestic revenue is projected to grow by 34% year-on-year, with a domestic net profit margin (NPM) expansion of 1.2 percentage points [32]. - The report revises the net income estimates for covered pet food companies by 0-5% to account for tariff impacts, while maintaining a positive outlook on Gambol and China Pet Foods [9][32].

Core Insights - Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd. reported a significant decline in revenue and net loss for Q3 2025, primarily due to the impact of tariffs on imported metal products and supply chain disruptions [1][9][12]. Operational Highlights - The company experienced a 21% decrease in total revenue for Q3 2025, amounting to $12.6 million compared to $15.9 million in Q3 2024, largely due to deferred purchases by retailers amid tariff uncertainties [6][9]. - Sales of Lifetime Steel Posts® products grew by 85% compared to Q3 2024, driven by the rollout of displayers, which increased by approximately 88% since November 2024 [6][9]. Tariff Impact and Response - The company faced increased tariffs on Chinese goods, with a 25% tariff implemented in 2019 and further increases announced in 2025, leading to a 50% global tariff on steel and aluminum imports as of June 2025 [3][4]. - Retailers have deferred purchases of imported metal products due to tariff volatility, causing significant turmoil in the company's markets and stressing logistics [4][5]. - The company is diversifying suppliers to mitigate tariff impacts and is implementing price increases across its product portfolio to align with rising costs [7][8]. Financial Results - Gross profit margins decreased to 15.0% in Q3 2025 from 18.6% in Q3 2024, attributed to higher tariff and shipping costs, as well as a shift towards lower-margin products [10]. - Operating expenses decreased to $2.6 million in Q3 2025 from $2.9 million in Q3 2024, due to operational efficiency initiatives and a 20% workforce reduction [11]. - The net loss for Q3 2025 was $(0.6) million, or $(0.18) per share, compared to a net income of $0.2 million, or $0.04 per share, in Q3 2024 [12][20]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is developing multi-source, multi-country strategic sourcing partnerships to reduce dependence on high-tariff countries and enhance production flexibility [7]. - Initiatives to improve operational efficiency and customer satisfaction are being enacted, including process improvements and technology enhancements [7][8].

Investment Rating - Overweight on Japanese equities with an end-of-year target for TOPIX at 3,000 and Nikkei Average at ¥40,000 [8][9][10] Core Insights - Corporate earnings remain resilient, particularly in domestic demand-oriented sectors, with no change in guidance at manufacturers and upward revisions at non-manufacturers [6][8] - The report anticipates a gradual yen appreciation to ¥140/$ by December 2025, with manageable impacts on share prices [8][10] - The impact of reciprocal tariffs is expected to be manageable, with a 10% reciprocal tariff already priced in by the market [8][10] Summary by Themes Theme 1: Impact of Trump Tariffs - Expect only a 4-6% EPS decline for Japanese companies due to US tariffs, with the largest impact on the autos sector [10][62] - Share prices in the autos sector have already factored in successful negotiations, assuming tariffs are lowered to 10% [10][62] Theme 2: Domestic Economic Activity and Bank of Japan Outlook - Moderate improvement in domestic economic activity is anticipated due to peaking import inflation and spring wage hikes [10][8] - The Bank of Japan is gradually moving toward policy normalization, with expectations for the next rate hike in late 2025 [10][8] Theme 3: Forex Rate Impact on Japanese Stocks - A moderate yen appreciation is expected, with a cross-asset view assuming dollar strength and yen weakness [10][8] Theme 4: Corporate Reform and ROE Improvement - More companies are committing to balance sheet reforms, with total payout ratios over 100% and management restructuring initiatives [10][8] Theme 5: Fund Flow - Fund flow trends indicate a shift towards buying European and Japanese stocks post-tariff shock, with NISA purchases continuing for both foreign and domestic stocks [10][8] Political Landscape - The report highlights key political events in 2025, including the Upper House election and potential impacts on the ruling coalition's status [11][19] - The consumption tax cut is a hot topic ahead of the Upper House election, with various party pledges regarding tax policies [21][28]

Core Insights - US inflation may be quietly rising as companies gradually pass higher import costs onto consumers, with a focus on upcoming consumer inflation and retail data [1] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in June, the highest increase in five months, with a year-over-year increase projected at 2.9%, marking the first rebound since January [1][2] - Analysts anticipate cumulative inflation pressure as companies adjust pricing in the second half of the year, despite limited tariff transmission reflected in June data [2] Inflation Dynamics - The transmission of price changes is uneven, with certain goods experiencing tariff impacts while service prices remain soft, indicating a mixed inflation landscape [2] - Consumer sensitivity to prices is heightened due to a cooling job market and slowing wage growth, complicating retailers' decisions on price increases [2] - The tug-of-war between corporate pricing strategies and consumer resilience adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with upcoming meetings set to consider these inflation trends [2] Retail Sales Data - Following the CPI report, the US Commerce Department will release June retail sales data, which is expected to show a slight rebound after two months of decline [3] - Weak consumer spending aligns with a cooling job market, and lackluster retail sales data could support the narrative of a "soft landing" for the US economy [3] - Together, the CPI and retail sales data will provide insights into the current state of the US economy at the intersection of inflation and growth, particularly in light of the evolving tariff policies [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Midea, Gree, Haier, and Hisense, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the white goods sector [27][28]. Core Insights - The white goods industry is expected to show resilience with a projected revenue growth of +9% and net profit growth of +11% year-over-year for the covered companies in 2Q25, driven by domestic demand and trade-in programs [1][25]. - Midea is highlighted as the leading player in the market, benefiting from a diversified revenue base and strong profitability, while facing manageable competition from smaller players [1][6]. - The report anticipates that domestic demand will become a more significant growth driver, particularly supported by trade-in programs and promotional events like "618" [1][5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic demand is expected to accelerate in 2Q25, following a brief slowdown earlier in the year, with trade-in programs resuming and promotional events boosting sales [1][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to disburse trade-in subsidies starting in July, which is expected to stabilize funding and support growth [1][5]. Competitive Landscape - Increased competition in the online channel is noted, particularly from smaller players like Xiaomi, which may impact revenue growth and margins for these companies [1][4]. - Despite the competition, the report suggests that the risk of a full-blown pricing war is limited, as premium products continue to grow faster than entry-level offerings [1][4]. Company Performance Expectations - Midea, Haier, and Gree are expected to report approximately 10% revenue growth and 10%-12% net profit growth in 2Q25, while Hisense is projected to face more challenges due to a slowdown in its central AC business [4][24]. - The report fine-tunes earnings forecasts for the covered companies, adjusting estimates by -6% to 2% to reflect recent operational data [4][21]. Price Target Revisions - Price targets for the covered companies have been revised down by -11% to 2% to reflect changes in earnings per share (EPS) and target multiples [21][27]. - Midea is expected to maintain its leading position due to its diversified revenue streams and strong market presence, while Gree is anticipated to benefit from strong domestic demand for air conditioning [6][27].

Group 1 - Alcoa Corporation is facing significant challenges due to a 50% tariff on Canadian aluminum imports into the U.S. [1] - The tariff could disrupt management's debt and capital return program [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of considering the entire investment ecosystem rather than evaluating a company in isolation [1]