智通财经7月1日电，印度5年期国债收益率下跌6个基点至6.04%。 ...

印度5年期国债收益率下跌6BP至6.04%。 ...

自今年5月底一场反响不佳的20年期国债拍卖导致超长期债券收益率创下历史新高以来，日本国债拍卖就成为了市场关注焦点。在日本国债收益率飙升波及 全球债券市场的同时，投资者对于政府赤字扩大的担忧也有所加剧，这迫使日本财务省从本月开始调整债券发行计划。 为稳定日本国债的需求，日本财务省已于6月宣布调整其债券发行计划。10年期国债的发行量保持不变，而20年、30年和40年期国债的发行量将自本月起减 少。另外，日本央行上月表示将从明年开始放缓其缩减购债的步伐，此举旨在确保债券市场的稳定性。 日本10年期国债拍卖表现相对强劲，在本周晚些时候即将举行的关键30年前国债拍卖前提振了市场情绪。数据显示，此次拍卖的投标倍数为3.51，高于过去 12个月的平均值3.14，反映出由于对日本央行加息的预期减弱，长期债券收益率面临的上行压力有所缓解。10年期日本国债价格在拍卖后上涨。截至发稿， 10年期日本国债收益率报1.936%。 Intouch Capital Markets Pte.策略师Anmol Agrawal表示："进入新季度后，日本国债市场情绪似乎良好，尤其是在财务省与一级交易商于上月底会谈后，决定 减少超长期债券的发行量。 ...

日本20年期国债收益率下跌2.5个基点，至2.325%。 ...

| | 1、央行公告称，6月30日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3315亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量3315 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量3315亿元。Wind数据显示，当日2205亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1110亿元。 | | | 2、央行年中精准调控，资金面有望平稳跨季。近段时间以来，央行精准调控护航年中资金面。在5月降准释放长期流 | | | 动性10000亿元的基础上，6月以来，央行多次开展买断式逆回购净投放，以及加量续做MLF，为市场注入充裕的流动 | | | 性。展望7月跨月及半年度资金面，市场既抱有谨慎乐观态度，也存在一定担忧，主要在于财政因素对于资金面可能 | | | 会形成较大的干扰。 | | | 3、国家统计局公布，6月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合PMI分别为49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和 | | | 0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI均连续两个月位于扩张区间。 | | 宏观 | 4、财政部、国家税务总局、商务部发布公告，明确在2025年1月1日至2028年 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, government bond yields experienced a rise and subsequent decline, influenced by monetary policy adjustments and market conditions [1] Market Performance - In Q1, the bond market faced a correction due to three main factors: market adjustments to the "moderately loose" monetary policy expectations, tight funding conditions due to restrained monetary operations, and better-than-expected fundamental data from January to February [1] - By the end of June, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.36%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, showing changes of 22.35 basis points, 9.13 basis points, -2.90 basis points, and -6.25 basis points compared to December 31 [1] Policy Dynamics - The first half of the year saw the implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. On May 8, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, leading to a corresponding 10 basis point drop in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - On May 15, the reserve requirement ratio was reduced by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, with the average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions dropping from 6.6% to 6.2% [1] Bond Supply and Demand - As of June 27, the issuance of special bonds accelerated, with a total of 20,973 billion yuan in new special bonds issued, achieving 47% of the issuance target [1] - The refinancing of special replacement bonds reached a cumulative issuance of 18,031 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 90% [1] - The net issuance of government bonds was 33,802 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 50.7%, including the early issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds compared to the previous year [1] Strategy Outlook - The current funding conditions are loose, with the overnight DR dropping below the policy rate to 1.4%, but the bond market lacks strong upward momentum [1] - In the absence of further interest rate cuts, the bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with an optimistic forecast for the 10-year government bond yield's low point at 1.50% [1] - If interest rates are cut by 10-20 basis points, the low point could potentially drop to 1.3% - 1.4% [1]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京7月1日电（王柘）6月最后一个交易日，美国国债收益率普遍下跌。其中，10年期美债收益率下跌5BP，报4.23%，创近2个 月新低，较5月末下跌19BP，较2024年末下跌了近35BP。 2年期美债收益率6月30日下跌3BP，报3.72%，较2024年末时4.24%的水平，大幅下降52BP。10年期与2年期美债利差上半年走阔17BP。 一季度时，受特朗普关税政策不确定性和美国经济放缓的影响，避险情绪高涨，投资者追捧美债，收益率一路下滑。随后，美债在4月 初迎来一轮猛烈抛售，对冲基金削减杠杆，投资者涌向现金以规避市场波动，加大了美债市场对流动性担忧。美债避险属性受到质疑。 加之美联储降息迟迟未至，而穆迪出于对美国政府债务和利息支付比例增加的担忧宣布下调美国主权信用评级，做多美债情绪降至谷 底，一级市场发行结果惨淡，超长期美债收益率升穿5%。 不过，进入6月以来，贸易谈判方面进展有效提振了市场乐观情绪，而通胀迟迟未至也令投资者对降息重燃信心。美债收益率向年内低 位靠近。 然而，经济学家的普遍看法仍然是关税对通胀的影响存在滞后效应。摩根士丹利首席经济学家Seth Carpenter领导的团 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has dropped to its lowest level since early May, decreasing by 4.7 basis points to 4.235% [1]

Group 1 - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has reached its lowest level since early June, currently down by 4.3 basis points to 4.241% [1]

高盛预计美联储将于9月份降息，此前预计要到12月才会行动。 美国国债收益率跌幅扩大，10/30年期美债收益率刷新日低。 ...