国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，在各项促进房地产市场止跌回稳政策作用下，今年以来我国房地产 市场继续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进，部分一二线城市交易有所恢复，房价运行总体稳定。但也要看到， 当前房地产市场总体仍在调整转型过程中，刚性和改善性需求仍待释放，部分地区房地产去化压力依然 较大，促进房地产止跌回稳仍需继续努力。 ...

1-4 月核心 30 城新房成交均价累计同比+5%，10 城二手房均价同比+2% ——光大核心城市房地产销售跟踪（2025 年 4 月） 要点 新房：1-4 月光大核心 30 城住宅成交面积同比+2%，成交均价同比+5%。 1）2025 年 4 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交面积为 1,086 万㎡， 同比-5.2%，环比-25.1%；其中，北上广深杭蓉成交面积 374 万㎡，同比+8.3%， 环比-18.3%，余下二线 24 城成交面积 712 万㎡，同比-11.0%，环比-28.2%。 2）2025 年 1-4 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交面积为 4,376 万㎡， 同比+2.3%；其中，北上广深杭蓉成交面积 1,435 万㎡，同比+14.2%，余下二 线 24 城成交面积 2,941 万㎡，同比-2.7%。 2025 年 5 月 15 日 行业研究 3）2025 年 1-4 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交均价为 24,553 元/ ㎡，同比+4.8%；其中，北上广深杭蓉成交均价 40,461 元/㎡，同比+0.2%，余 下二线 24 城成交均价为 16, ...

| 投资者关系活动类别 | ☐特定对象调研 ☐分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | ☐媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | | ☐新闻发布会 ☐路演活动 | | | ☐现场参观 | | | ☐其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称及人员姓名 | 线上参与公司2024年度网上业绩说明会的投资者 | | 时间 | 2025年05月08日 15:00-17:00 | | 地点 | 价值在线（https://www.ir-online.cn/）网络互动 | | | 董事、总裁 李绪鹏 | | | 副总裁、财务总监 汪礼宏 | | 上市公司接待人员姓名 | 董事会秘书 蒋凛 | | | 独立董事 刘阿苹 | | | 1.国家大力推动保障性住房建设，公司是否有参与珠海当地保障 | | | 性住房项目的计划？ | | 投资者关系活动主要内容 | 答:您好，公司目前暂未参与有关保障性住房项目，感谢您的关 | | 介绍 | 注。 | | | 2.公司本期盈利水平如何 | | | 答:您好，2024年度公司实现营业收入98,109.02万元，利润总额 | | | 9,462.45万元，净利润5,725.65 ...

证券研究报告 房贷利率有望重启下行，优化城改和 收储空间 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 07 日│中国内地 动态点评 5 月 7 日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会在国新办发布会上宣布一揽子金融 政策，其中涉及房地产的增量政策主要包括降准降息、公积金贷款和结构性 货币政策工具利率下调、房地产融资制度改革和 REITs 入通等，总体上符合 4 月政治局会议对于"用好用足适度宽松的货币政策"和房地产相关表述的 定调。我们预计增量政策的逐步落地有望巩固房地产市场"止跌回稳"的趋 势，后续需要关注财政政策和北上深房地产调控政策是否能够匹配发力。 公积金贷款利率调整落地，结合降准降息有望打开商贷利率下调空间 25 年 3 月国务院《提振消费专项行动方案》提出"实施降低住房公积金贷 款利率"，本次会议正式下调公积金贷款利率 0.25pct，将 5 年期以上首套房 公积金利率从 2.85%下调至 2.6%，预计每年节省居民公积金贷款利息支出 超 200 亿元。再结合本次会议提出的降准（下调存款准备金率 0.5pct）、降 息（下调政策利率 0.1pct），我们预计有望重新打开增量商业银行房贷利率 的下行空间。根据贝壳的数据， ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the 5-year and above first home rate from 2.85% to 2.6%, which is expected to reduce housing costs for residents and stimulate the real estate market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The reduction in the housing provident fund loan rate is part of a broader strategy to narrow the interest rate gap between provident fund loans and commercial loans, enhancing the effectiveness of the provident fund policy [2][3]. - The policy rate was also lowered by 0.1 percentage points, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2]. Group 2: Impact on Housing Market - The reduction in loan rates is anticipated to alleviate the high actual mortgage rates faced by residents, which is crucial for stabilizing the real estate market [3]. - As of April 2025, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the end of 2024, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [4]. Group 3: Financial Support for Real Estate - The approval amount for "white list" loans in the real estate sector has increased to 6.7 trillion yuan, reflecting efforts by financial institutions to support the financing needs of real estate companies [4]. - The central bank is expected to continue implementing supportive policies for the real estate sector, aiming to balance supply and demand in the housing market [4].

以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者罗志恒 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大 经济学一级学科排名全国第一的优秀研究力量，诚邀社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大 经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报告。 罗志恒 粤开证券首席经济学家 在当前节点讨论化解债务问题具有极为重要的意义。 2023年和2024年，宏观经济运行的核心问题 集中在房地产与地方债务上，二者相互交织。 房地产不仅直接影响经济的投资与消费，更关键的是 其对地方政府可支配财力产生直接影响，包括土地出让收入及相关税收，进而影响地方政府用于偿债 及发展经济的能力。过去两年，房地产与地方债务问题相互交织。房地产处于调整转型期，土地出让 收入大幅下行，影响地方可支配财力，进而债务问题凸显，于是有了一系列化债政策。 当下进入"特朗普2.0时代"，又面临关税战与贸易战的挑战，在此背景下讨论化债问题仍具重要意 义，有必要认识到关税战与化债的关系。 应对关税战与贸易战的最佳方式是做好自身的事，而做好 自身的事至少包括三个方面：一是妥善处置地方政府债务问题； ...

Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the need to implement urban renewal actions and improve the real estate market stability through various measures, including enhancing high-quality housing supply and optimizing existing property acquisition policies [1] Group 1: Positive Changes in the Real Estate Market - Since September 2024, a series of monetary policy tools have been introduced to stabilize the real estate market, leading to a noticeable increase in market activity, with a total of 3.83 million residential transactions in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] - The goal of stabilizing the real estate market has been initially achieved, although the foundation remains fragile [1] Group 2: Structural Changes in the Market - There is a significant divergence in the real estate market across different cities, with core cities experiencing a higher proportion of residential transactions, particularly in first-tier cities, while third-tier cities see minimal activity [2] - The mismatch between land resources and population distribution over the past two decades has led to a tight supply-demand relationship in major cities, while many smaller cities face oversupply issues [2] Group 3: Changes in Transaction Types - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions has increased, while new housing transactions have decreased, with new commodity housing transfer registrations down by 12.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [4] - The implementation of the "mortgage transfer" system has stimulated second-hand housing transactions, with 71,000 cases processed in Q1 2025, involving an amount of 71.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 163% increase in monthly average processing volume [4] Group 4: Divergence Between Residential and Commercial Properties - While the residential market shows signs of stabilization, the office and commercial property sectors continue to struggle, with average rental prices for office spaces in major cities declining by 0.73% in Q1 2025 [5][6] - The oversupply of office spaces is linked to local governments prioritizing industrial and commercial land use over residential land, exacerbating the mismatch in land resources across different industries [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the real estate sector [4][88]. Core Views - The real estate sales data shows narrow fluctuations, with a trend of weakening in investment and financing recovery. The cumulative transaction volume of new residential properties in 30 cities is 24.23 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have varying transaction performances, with year-on-year changes of -6%, +11%, +24%, and +62% respectively [1][12]. - The report anticipates that future real estate policies will be crucial in stabilizing the market, with expectations for inventory reduction policies such as stock land repurchase and urban village renovation to be steadily advanced. The report suggests that real estate stocks still present speculative opportunities [3][88]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The sales data for new residential properties in 30 cities shows a year-on-year increase of 2%, with significant variances among major cities. The transaction volume for second-hand residential properties in 18 cities has increased by 28% year-on-year [1][19]. Market Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.9 percentage points this month, with a slight decline of 0.3% since the last strategy report. The sector ranks 7th among 31 industries [2][81]. Investment Strategy - The current real estate sales fundamentals are expected to remain stable, with a continuous upward trend since the fourth quarter of the previous year. The report recommends specific stocks, including "I Love My Home" and "Beike-W" for investment [3][88].

城市与区域治理研究院 苏志勇/文 4月16日，国家统计局发布国民经济运行情况和房地产相关数据。一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，超出市场预期，国民经济实现良好开局。商品房销 售面积、商品房销售额、房地产开发到位资金等各项指标跌幅明显收窄；70个大中城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅销售价格跌幅明显收窄；一线城市新房价 格环比稳步回升，二手住宅价格环比由降转升。数据显示，房地产主要指标呈现积极变化，止跌回稳趋势明显。 2025年全国两会首次将"稳住楼市"写入政府工作报告，将"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"列为经济工作总体目标。在存量政策逐渐显效和增量政策持 续加码作用下，一季度房地产多项指标持续改善，为全面实现止跌回稳的目标奠定了良好基础。 房地产多项指标"拐头向上" 根据国家统计局数据，1~3月份，新建商品房销售面积21869万平方米，同比下降3.0%，降幅比1~2月份收窄2.1个百分点。新建商品房销售额20798亿元， 下降2.1%，降幅收窄0.5个百分点。3月末，商品房待售面积78664万平方米，比2月末减少1227万平方米。其中住宅待售面积减少1017万平方米。 价格方面，截至3月末，全国70个大中城市新房 ...

行 业 及 产 业 房地产 业 研 究 行 业 点 评 标配(维持) 证 券 研 究 报 告 马燕 15901097973 S0400524090001 mayan@cdzq.com 2025 年 04 月 17 日 房地产：政策效应初显，市场分化 延续 研报摘要： / 行 事件：2025 年 4 月 16 日，国家统计局发布 2025 年 3 月份商品住宅销售价格变动情况 统计数据，70 个大中城市中，有 24 城新建商品住宅价格环比上涨，2 月为 18 城；环 比看，上海涨幅 0.7%领跑，北广深分别跌 0.2%、跌 0.1%、涨 0.1%。 房地产与大盘对比走势： 商品住宅整体止跌回稳态势明显，一线城市复苏表现分化。在去年 9 月底"止跌回稳" 政策的利好下，房地产市场基本面持续改善，房价指标进一步改善。根据统计局数据， 3 月，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降 2.8%，降幅比上月收窄 0.2 个百分点； 环比上涨 0.1%，涨幅与上月相同。上海和深圳环比分别为 5.7%、-3.9%分别上涨 0.7% 和 0.1%，北京和广州分别下降 0.2%和 0.1%。一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比由上月 下降 ...