煤炭 行业周报（20250512-20250518） 同步大市-A(维持) 关税博弈落地，煤炭重回供需逻辑 2025 年 5 月 19 日 行业研究/行业周报 煤炭行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 动态数据跟踪 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liuguijun@sxzq.com 焦、钢产业链：开工提高，焦炭价格回落。本周焦煤价格下降，焦炭利 润有所改善，焦炭企业开工率有所提高，叠加成本支撑减弱，焦炭价格提降。 后期，宏观预期有望继续落地，外贸环境改善下游预期，基建、地产施工或 将发力，钢材需求刚性仍存，焦炭价格预计下降空间不大。截至 5 月 16 日， 天津港一级冶金焦均价 1480 元/吨，周变化-3.27%；港口平均焦、煤价差（焦 炭-炼焦煤）249 元/吨，周变化-9.45%。独立焦化厂、样本钢厂焦炭总库存 分别 65.48 万吨和 663.52 万吨，周变化分别+0.581%、-1.08%；四港口焦 炭总库存 222.62 万吨，周变化-1.30%；全国市场螺纹钢平均价格 3333 元/ 吨，周变化+0.97%；螺纹钢全社会、生产企业库存分别合计 434.97 万吨、 185.03 万 ...

相关报告： 动力煤：库存走低，夏季备库需求待发。本周产地煤矿生产基本维持正 常水平。需求方面，南方降雨频繁，水电出力增加，叠加北方气温回升，港 口堆煤出货压力增加；下游复工及基建仍有待提高，工业原料用煤支撑减弱； 北方港口煤炭调入低于调出，煤炭被动去库，港口煤价维持弱势。进入二季 度中下旬，国际贸易环境有所改善，非电用煤需求或有所恢复；同时，内外 贸价差倒挂，预计国内进口煤减少，临近夏季备库需求，国内动力煤价格中 枢预计继续下降空间不大。截至 5 月 16 日，环渤海动力煤现货参考价 629 元/吨，周变化-2.18%；广州港山西优混 610 元/吨，周变化-8.96%；欧洲三 港 Q6000 动力煤 658.20 元/吨，周变化-7.78%。5 月 16 日，北方港口合计 煤炭库存 3047 万吨，周变化-1.99%；长江八港煤炭库存 763.00 万吨，同比 -0.52%；本周环渤海港口日均调入 175.69 万吨，调出 181.79 万吨，日均净 调出 6.10 万吨。 分析师： 冶金煤：外贸环境改善，冶金煤继续去库。煤矿冶金煤生产供应维持正 常。需求方面，本周降准降息政策落地，中美日内瓦联合声明发布后 ...

国家统计局发布数据显示，4月份，规上工业原煤产量3.9亿吨，同比增长3.8%，增速比3月份回落5.8个 百分点；日均产量1298万吨。1—4月份，规上工业原煤产量15.8亿吨，同比增长6.6%。 信达证券认为，当前，煤炭板块仍属高业绩、高现金、高分红资产，行业仍具高景气、长周期、高壁垒 特征，叠加宏观经济底部向好，央企市值管理新规落地，煤炭央国企资产注入工作已然开启，以及一二 级市场估值倒挂，愈加凸显优质煤炭公司盈利与成长的高确定性。煤炭板块向下调整有高股息安全边际 支撑，向上弹性有后续煤价上涨预期催化，继续全面看多煤炭板块。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 兴业证券认为，1）动力煤：供需格局边际修复，价格企稳预期增强。主产区供应维持平稳，发运成本 倒挂对市场情绪形成一定支撑，叠加非电需求季节性复苏及迎峰度夏备货周期临近，需求端改善动能逐 步积累。当前港口库存高位压力虽存，但贸易商加快出清后市场货源结构逐步优化，成本支撑效应下煤 价下行阻力渐显，随着旺季补库开启，预计煤价有望止跌回稳。2）炼焦煤：成本支撑渐强，价格下行 空间受限。焦煤市场整体趋稳，部分区域价格小幅松动，但当前精煤价格已跌至部分矿山成本线附近， 成本 ...

曙光已现，煤炭终迎年初至今配置良机 行情回顾（2025.5.12~2025.5.16）： 中信煤炭指数 3,244.52 点，上涨 1.65%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.53pct，位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 6 位。 年初至今，动力煤价格累计下行 139 元/吨，主焦价格累计下行 180 元/吨，中信煤 炭指数累计下跌 11.7%，位列倒数第一。 市场经过深度调整后，筑底信号逐步显现，随着基本面的边际改善和政策的不断加码 （见后文），黎明前的黑暗正在消散，曙光已现，左侧布局的黄金窗口悄然开启，此 刻播种的人，将最早触到破土而出的春芽。 gszqdatemark 】 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 05 18 年 月 日 煤炭开采 重点领域分析： 增持（维持） 行业走势 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 煤炭开采 沪深300 作者 分析师 张津铭 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 分析师 刘力钰 执业证书编号：S0680524070012 邮箱：liuliyu@g ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal prices have significantly increased since the beginning of the year, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has intervened to stabilize supply and prices, indicating that coal prices will operate at the upper limit of a reasonable range. The focus for coal stock investments should shift towards high dividends and transformation opportunities throughout the year [1]. Investment Highlights - Since the beginning of the year, coal prices have continued to rise, supported by fundamentals. The spot price of Qinhuangdao (Q5500) coal increased from 790 RMB/ton at the beginning of January to 1070 RMB/ton by the end of January. The rise is attributed to the rapid decline in port coal prices and the inversion of pit coal prices, leading to decreased enthusiasm among traders to pull coal to ports and low port inventories. The sentiment was further catalyzed by Indonesia's announcement to restrict coal exports. Demand has exceeded expectations due to strong electricity consumption and power plant restocking, with economic growth policies expected to further strengthen demand, providing effective support for coal prices [2]. - The NDRC has taken measures to consolidate supply and price stability, indicating that coal prices will operate at the upper limit of a reasonable range. A meeting held on February 9 emphasized that coal companies should resume normal production and supply, strictly implement supply and price stabilization policies, and regulate pricing behavior. It is believed that the rise in coal prices may pause, but there is no risk of a rapid short-term decline due to factors such as increased demand for coal and electricity from a cold spring and economic growth, as well as the increase in Indonesia's benchmark coal price to 188.4 USD/ton, which translates to a domestic cost of over 1237 RMB/ton, exceeding domestic coal prices, limiting the increase in imported coal supply [2]. Investment Strategy - In 2022, investments in coal stocks should not overly focus on coal prices but rather seek alpha opportunities, as high dividends and transformation present greater potential for increases. Following the volatility in the coal market in 2021, the government has sufficient means to maintain price stability. The significant rise in prices leading to high earnings elasticity is unlikely to occur in 2022. However, the government shows tolerance for relatively high coal prices, which are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The long-term contract prices have significantly increased year-on-year, leading to an elevation in corporate profit levels. Value discovery will be the main theme for coal stock investments in 2022. The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal in February 2022 was 725 RMB/ton, and under the new mechanism, high long-term contract prices are expected to be maintained, leading to sustainable optimization in capital expenditure, cash flow, finance, profit, and dividends. New dividend plans are anticipated following the disclosure of annual reports by coal companies in March 2022. Additionally, the government encourages the construction of photovoltaic projects to address mining subsidence, suggesting that some coal companies may leverage local resources to acquire green energy projects, accelerating transformation [3]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is currently at a projected bottom, with valuations significantly low. With the increase in benchmark long-term contract prices for thermal coal and expected high prices for coking coal, high-quality resource companies possess long-term value, while transformation companies have growth potential. The sector is set to see valuation increases. The main investment themes for the year include high dividends, green energy transformation, and growth-oriented coal chemical projects. Recommended companies include China Shenhua, Jingyuan Coal Electricity, Energy Investment, Yanzhou Coal, China Xuyang Group, and Baofeng Energy. Additionally, high-quality resource companies recommended are Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Huaibei Mining, China Coal Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Lanhua Sci-Tech, Panjiang Coal and Electricity, and Pingdingshan Coal [4].

2025 年 05 月 18 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 张益 S0350124100016 zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 港口去库、电厂补库需求渐显，煤价预期开始好 转 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | -1.0% | -3.4% | -18.4% | | 沪深 300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业周报：4 月进口煤量继续减量，煤 价继 续探底（ 推荐）*煤炭 开采* 陈晨 》—— 2025-05-11 《煤炭开采行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述： 煤企成本下降难补煤价跌，煤企业绩进一步向合理 区间回归（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2025-05-09 《煤炭开采行业周报：港口库存延续去化，煤价筑 底下关注高股息价值（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》— —2025-0 ...

煤炭 中美互降关税提振下游需求，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 2025 年 05 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《一揽子金融政策稳市场预期，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.5.11 《红利与周期双逻辑，煤炭攻守兼备 —煤炭行业 2025 年中期投资策略》- 2025.5.8 《政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.27 张绪成（分析师） ——行业周报 zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：中美互降关税提振下游需求，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周动力煤港口价格小跌，截至 5 月 16 日，秦 港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 614 元/吨，环比下跌 16 元/吨，跌幅 2.54%；截至 5 月 16 日，CCTD 动力煤现货价（Q5500）为 629 元/吨，环比下跌 14 元/吨，跌幅 2.18%。从供给 ...

煤炭 中美互降关税提振下游需求，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 2025 年 05 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《一揽子金融政策稳市场预期，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.5.11 《红利与周期双逻辑，煤炭攻守兼备 —煤炭行业 2025 年中期投资策略》- 2025.5.8 《政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.27 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：中美互降关税提振下游需求，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周动力煤港口价格小跌，截至 5 月 16 日，秦 港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 614 元/吨，环比下跌 16 元/吨，跌幅 2.54%；截至 5 月 16 日，CCTD 动力煤现货价（Q5500）为 629 元/吨，环比下跌 14 元/吨，跌幅 2.18%。从供给 ...

评级： 增持（维持） 煤炭需求提振可期，右侧配置窗口显现 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 17 日 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 17,459.15 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 17,069.50 | 1、《耐心寻底，布局右侧》2025-05-11 2025-05-05 有望企稳》2025-05-04 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A ...

日耗拐点将至，煤价或企稳回升 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 5 月 18 日 证券研究报告 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 左前明：能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 日耗拐点将至，煤价或企稳回升 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 18 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.ci ...