2025年7月10日，上证指数成功站上3500点。 大约三个月前，上证指数一天跌了 7.34%，收于3096.58点。彼时大家可能都 没想到，此后A股表现强韧，主题轮动热点不断，指数一路上行，并最终在今 天站上3500点。这个点位上一次触及，是2024年10月8日，这个点位上一次 站稳，还是2022年1月24日 （ 数据来源：Choice ） 。 以下文章来源于兴证全球基金 ，作者与您相伴的 兴证全球基金 . 投资理财，有温度，有深度，有态度。 站上 3500点意味着什么？我们又该如何看待当前市场水温？现在还适合入市 吗？ 当前市场水温如何？ 回顾历史数据，当前各指数水温各有差异。上证指数点位回到 2022年初水平，中证2000指数一举收复至2017年4月的点位水平。 沪深 300、中证800、创业板指回到今年3月中旬点位，中证红利指数收复年初点位。主动权益基金也已修复4月跌幅，回到三月中旬点位。 而港股市场，自去年 9月开始受益于基本面和资金面的好转，一路震荡上行，截至目前，恒生指数和恒生科技指数也均已超越去年9月高点。 上证指数及中证 2000指数近10年表现 数据来源：Choice ，2015/7/1- ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is set to impose a new "maritime service fee" starting October 14, which has raised concerns among automakers and shipping companies about its impact on U.S. consumers [1][3] - The initial proposal for the fee was $150 per Car Equivalent Unit (CEU), but it was later adjusted to $14 per net ton due to industry pressure, although stakeholders remain dissatisfied with the changes [3][4] - Major companies like Ford and Caterpillar have expressed that the proposed fees could lead to increased costs for consumers and hinder U.S. exporters' ability to ship products overseas [4][5] Group 2 - The American automotive industry lobby group, Autos Drive America, indicated that the U.S. shipbuilding industry would require years to provide sufficient American-built vessels, making the fee's intended purpose unachievable [4] - The American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) highlighted the limited capacity of U.S. shipyards to produce the necessary vessels, which could further complicate the situation [4][6] - The logistics industry is currently observing the implementation of the new fees, with concerns that even alternative shipping routes would lead to higher costs [5] Group 3 - The South Korean government has requested an exemption from the new fees, arguing that it would impose significant burdens on their automotive manufacturers, such as Hyundai and Kia, and disrupt the U.S.-Korea trade relationship [6][7] - The Korean government emphasized that the fees could introduce additional regulatory layers and double burdens for non-U.S. automotive transport participants [6][7] - They also requested a cap on the frequency of fee assessments to mitigate unpredictable costs for the automotive shipping industry [7]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has announced the establishment of a new political party, the "American Party," targeting former ally and current President Trump, following a significant drop in Tesla's market value by $100 billion in a week [2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Tesla - The recent "Big and Beautiful" bill signed by Trump has eliminated several clean energy incentives, which directly impacts Tesla's carbon credit trading business, a revenue source that generated $2.8 billion in the past year, accounting for nearly 40% of its profits [3]. - Morgan Stanley predicted that the cancellation of electric vehicle tax credits could reduce Tesla's annual operating profit by $1.2 billion [3]. - Following the decline in Tesla's second-quarter global vehicle deliveries by 13.48% year-over-year and the public fallout with Trump, Tesla's stock price dropped by 6.79%, resulting in a market value loss of over $68 billion [7]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Musk's anger towards the new legislation is evident as he criticized it on social media, calling it "absurd," "disgusting," and "destructive," while Trump retaliated by stating Musk has received more subsidies than anyone in history [5]. - Musk's establishment of the "American Party" aims to reclaim freedom for the people and seeks to win 2-3 Senate seats and 8-10 House seats in the 2026 midterm elections, which could shift the legislative balance in a closely divided Congress [5]. - Analysts suggest that Musk's political maneuvering may be a strategy to pressure Trump and the Republican Party into policy compromises by splitting their voter base [5]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Establishing a new national political party in the U.S. involves complex certification processes, making it a challenging endeavor [6]. - The "winner-takes-all" electoral system in the U.S. is inherently unfavorable for third-party development, as noted by political experts [6]. - Despite Musk's financial resources, breaking the dominance of the Republican and Democratic parties remains a significant hurdle [7]. Group 4: Broader Implications - Musk's political engagement raises concerns among investors about potential distractions from his business focus, particularly regarding Tesla and SpaceX, which holds $22 billion in federal contracts [7]. - The conflict between Musk and Trump reflects deeper fractures within Trump's political alliance, highlighting the fragile relationship between technology capital and political power in the U.S. [8]. - The situation illustrates the challenges faced by tech capital in attempting to influence political agendas, as evidenced by the backlash against Tesla despite Musk's previous support for Trump [8].

本文来自：肖小跑，原文标题：《美国那些被预言会遭"毁灭性打击"的经济指标，怎么看起来越来越健康?》，头图来自：视觉中国 今天写点大家可能不爱听的。 当懂王"解放日"宣布全球关税政策时，专家们的预测几乎是一边倒的：通胀会飙升，失业率会上升，股市会崩盘，小企业会倒闭。我当时也觉得这逻辑挺合 理的——关税就是税，最终还是消费者买单。 这时候考验经济学家"成功预测过去五次衰退中的九次"技能的时候到了：且看大家会用何种姿势继续坚持自己逻辑。比如"莫急，真正的影响还没开始，等 企业库存消化完，等关税真正传导到终端，你们就知道厉害了。" 但这次可能还真的不太一样。 这次的问题不在于经济学家是不是有真功夫，而在于我们已经生活在两个平行宇宙里——一个是由数据构成的真实世界，另一个是由叙事构成的媒体世界。 最近看到一个特别有意思的图表，来自美国小企业联合会的调查。把调查问题分成两类：一类是"硬数据"（就业数据、投资活动、消费等），另一类是"软 数据"（比如对未来的情绪、预期、信心）。 但几个月过去了，美国失业率依然保持在4.1%的历史低位，GDP预期2.5%，股市像什么都没发生一样又创了新高。那些被预言要承受"毁灭性打击"的经济 ...

格林大华期货有限公司 ELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO.,LTD. EIA原油周度数据报告 2025年7月10日 美国商业原油库存 420,000 24,000- 400,000 18,000 04-02 04-30 05-28 06-25 07-23 08-20 09-17 10-15 11-12 12-10 01-09 02-06 03-05 04-02 04-30 05-28 06-25 07-23 08-20 09-17 10-15 11-12 12-10 02-06 03-05 - 2021 - 2022 - 2023 - 2024 == 2025 2021 - 2022 - 2023 - 2024 == 2025 数据来源:Wind 数起来源:Wind 美国汽油库存 美国馏分油库存 千桶 干燥 261,000- 170,000 160,000 252,000 150,000 243,000 140,000- 234,000 130,000 225,000 120,000 216,000 110,000 207,000 100,000 198,000 90,000 04-02 04-30 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-07-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9468 | -42 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2611 | 25 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 56 275066 | -4 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -6801 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 295 567403 | 22 -26 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 17084 | 1352 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -11937 | -109 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 3021 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 15030 | -633 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 681.6 | -23 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5069 ...

俄罗斯副外长：美国征收500%关税的假设需要进行分析，但不会从根本上改变局势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Russia is prepared to respond to potential new sanctions from the United States, indicating a proactive stance in managing geopolitical risks and economic pressures [1] Group 1 - The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Russia is aware of how to handle possible new sanctions from the U.S. [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that domestic corporate profits remain under pressure, with capital and risk appetite driving the A-share market's upward fluctuations. The financial sectors such as banks, non-banking financial institutions, pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications are expected to lead this trend, with an anticipated increase in risk appetite by late July [3][4][12]. - As of May, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises above designated size turned negative year-on-year, and the manufacturing PMI for June was at 49.7, indicating marginal improvement but still below the growth line. Only six industries have seen upward adjustments in profit expectations for 2025, including steel, social services, and media, suggesting that corporate profit growth remains in a bottoming phase [4][12][17]. - The overall profitability indicators, ROA and ROE, remain weak, with banks, steel, and transportation showing relatively better performance [4][12]. Group 2 - Micro liquidity is showing a net inflow trend, with equity mutual funds issuing 272.6 billion units since the beginning of the year, and the margin trading scale has continued to see net inflows since May. Northbound capital saw a significant increase in Q2, with a net inflow of 61.7 billion, compared to 13.5 billion in Q1, particularly in sectors like power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications [5][13]. - The issuance of special government bonds and the recent political meetings are expected to enhance market risk appetite. The path from special bonds to bank capital supplementation and interest rate cuts is clear, benefiting overall macro liquidity [6][14]. Group 3 - The investment strategy recommends three main lines: first, sectors like banks and public utilities that represent bond-like characteristics due to weak profits and strong liquidity; second, sectors such as photovoltaics, live pigs, and glass that are expected to benefit from policy negotiations and rising risk appetite; third, sectors like pharmaceuticals and telecommunications that will benefit from incremental capital inflows [7][16]. - The report anticipates that the trade war is likely to settle in the third quarter, with the narrative of "American exceptionalism" potentially returning to market focus, leading to a resurgence of the dollar and U.S. stocks [7][41].

本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! CDSE ~ 华龙证券 从"山重水复"到"柳暗花明" -A股市场2025年中期投资策略报告 华龙证券研究所 策略 分析师：朱金金 SAC执业证书编号: S0230521030009 邮箱: zhujj@hlzq.com 2025年7月10日 证券研究报告 本报告来源于"慧博投研"，请勿外传! CDSE S 华龙证券 2025年1月1日-2025年6月30日市场走势(单位: %) 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% -10.00% 上指数 -- 开采300 相关报告 《A股月度金股:7月市场中枢或有上移》 2025. 07. 01 《A股市场2024年报及2025年一季报综述:二季度关注政策催化且业绩保持韧 性方向》 2025. 5. 17 《2025年A股投资策略报告:启航新时期,逐梦高质牛》 2024. 12. 09 资料来源:Wind,华龙证券研究所 请认真阅读文后免责条款 本报告来源于"慧博投研"，请勿外传! CDSE 3 华龙证券 目 录 1 对等关税 扰动可控 2 摩擦缓和 政策显效 3 长牛未央 坚守成长 ...