投资要点 ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2023-03 2024-03 2025-03 成交额(亿元) 收盘价 7d 源达 目录 | 一、资讯要闻及点评………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3 | | --- | | 二、周观点 | | 三、市场概览 . ншынышышы………………… 6 | | 6 1.主要指数表现 . | | ２.申万一级行业涨跌幅… | | 7 3.两市交易额 | | 4.本周热点板块涨跌幅 7 | | 四、投资建议 9 | 图表目录 | 图 1：４月金融数据情况… | | --- | | 图 2： 4 月社融存量数据情况 | | 图 3: 美国 CPI 情况 | | 图 4： 申万一级行业涨跌幅情况 | | 图 5：两市成交额情况 | | 图 ...

Group 1: Monetary and Credit Data - As of the end of April, the total social financing stock reached 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, and M2 balance was 325.17 trillion yuan, also showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [1] - The RMB loan balance at the end of April was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and after adjusting for local debt replacement, the growth rate still exceeded 8% [1] - In April, new RMB loans increased by 280 billion yuan, which was 450 billion yuan less than the same month last year, resulting in a credit growth rate of 7.2%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month [2] Group 2: Factors Affecting Credit Growth - The decline in credit data for April was influenced by multiple factors, including the traditional low lending month, increased global trade tensions, and the acceleration of local debt replacement [2][3] - The cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement reached approximately 3.6 trillion yuan, corresponding to the replacement of loans of about 2.1 trillion yuan, which helped maintain a loan growth rate above 8% [2] - The short-term loans for enterprises decreased by 480 billion yuan in April, while bill financing increased by 834.1 billion yuan, indicating a potential slowdown in credit expansion [3] Group 3: Deposit and Investment Trends - In April, M2 grew by 8.0%, up 1.0 percentage points from March, while M1 growth slightly declined to 1.5% [4] - Total deposits increased by only 440 billion yuan in April, with a notable decrease in both resident and corporate deposits, suggesting a trend of deposits moving towards investments [4][5] - The net financing of government bonds in April increased significantly by 10.666 trillion yuan, becoming a core support for social financing [6] Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The current credit and monetary environment is stabilizing, with expectations for further interest rate cuts to stimulate private sector financing demand [7] - The government is focusing on implementing a series of incremental policies to enhance financial support for technological innovation, which may lead to increased credit supply [7]

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced adjustments after a strong start in 2025, but some investors are increasing their positions, indicating confidence in the market [1] - In April, social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which is approximately 1.2 trillion yuan more than the previous year, aligning with market expectations [1][3] - The first four months of 2025 saw a cumulative increase in social financing of 16.34 trillion yuan, which is 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3] Group 2 - The recent implementation of monetary policy measures is expected to favor short-term bonds, with potential downward pressure on funding rates, creating opportunities in the bond market [4] - The government is promoting the issuance of special local government bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, which enhances market confidence in long-term bonds [4] - The credit bond market is seeing increased demand for high credit quality assets, supported by easing policies that reduce financing pressures and default risks [7] Group 3 - The convertible bond market is witnessing structural opportunities due to easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., with growth potential in technology and domestic consumption sectors [7] - Specific sectors such as pet care, domestic beauty products, and low-temperature dairy are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support, enhancing the performance of related companies [7] - The BoShi Convertible Bond ETF is viewed as a stable investment option, particularly during periods of high stock market volatility, as it can help mitigate overall portfolio risk [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, the overall supply of nickel elements is in surplus, with significant upward pressure but cost support at the bottom. It is expected to show a weak oscillatory trend in the near - term range, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on rallies [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, although the price rebounded due to the impact of the Philippine nickel ore export ban and tariff adjustments, the overall supply of stainless steel is in surplus, with large upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell and hedge on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 15, 2025, the main nickel contract 2506 opened at 126,100 yuan/ton and closed at 123,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.64% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 137,729 lots, and the open interest was 63,702 lots [1]. - The main nickel contract showed a downward trend. The trading volume and open interest increased slightly compared to the previous trading day. China's social financing scale and new RMB loans from January to April were lower than market expectations, while the M2 money supply growth rate increased by 1 percentage point in April. In the spot market, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased slightly in the morning, but the nickel price fell again during the day. Downstream enterprises mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average. The spot premiums of various brands were mostly stable. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons to 23,344 tons, and LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons to 199,146 tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 15, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2506 opened at 13,025 yuan/ton and closed at 12,995 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,580 lots, and the open interest was 127,690 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract also showed a downward trend. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased. The shortage of nickel ore supply still exists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at + 26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by 0.65 - 1 US dollars, with the overall price rising slightly. There were no new nickel - iron transactions recently. In the spot market, the stainless - steel price on the futures market fell, the inquiry and trading atmosphere weakened significantly, and the transactions were mainly small orders for rigid demand. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,300 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 yuan/ton. The premium for 304/2B was 305 - 505 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 941.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [6].

董希淼（招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任） 5月14日，中国人民银行公布4月金融数据。总体而言，4月金融数据表现符合预期，社会融资规模增长 加快，信贷投放较为平稳，市场流动性充裕。下一阶段，随着一揽子金融政策落地实施以及财税政策加 快发力，金融总量有望继续保持增长，形成对宏观经济恢复回升的有力支撑。 从货币供应量看，4月末广义货币(M2)同比增长8%，增速比上月提高1个百分点；狭义货币(M1)同比增 长1.5%，增速比上月回落0.1个百分点。M1环比增速小幅回落，与上月增速回升较快有关。4月份，在 适度宽松的政策基调下，央行通过公开市场逆回购、买断式逆回购以及中期借贷便利操作，加大短期和 中期流动性投放，市场流动性较为充裕。这表明金融支持服务力度总体上保持稳固，为经济回升向好营 造了良好的货币金融环境。 在信贷投放结构中，企（事）业部门继续贡献绝大部分增量，住户部门贷款仍有待提振。4月企（事） 业单位贷款增加6100亿元，同比少增2500亿元。而住户部门需求更值得关注。4月住户贷款减少5216亿 元，同比多减50亿元。其中，住户短期贷款减少4019亿元，同比多减501亿元。这表明，居民日常消费 需求 ...

点击上图 ▲立即加入 中国4月社融同比多增1.22万亿元 5月14日，央行公布金融数据显示，2025年前四个月社会融资规模增量累计为16.34万亿元，比上年同期多3.61万亿元。结合前值计算可得，4月 社融规模增量为1.16万亿元，同比多增1.22万亿元。前四个月人民币贷款增加10.06万亿元，结合前值计算可得，4月新增人民币贷款2800亿元。 4月末，广义货币（M2）余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货币（M1）余额109.14万亿元，同比增长1.5%。M2-M1剪刀差为6.5%，较3 月的5.4个百分点扩大了1.1%。 分部门看，前四月住户贷款增加5184亿元，其中，短期贷款减少2416亿元，中长期贷款增加7601亿元；企（事）业单位贷款增加9.27万亿元， 其中，短期贷款增加3.03万亿元，中长期贷款增加5.83万亿元，票据融资增加2899亿元；非银行业金融机构贷款增加768亿元。（华尔街见闻） 巴西、智利等国家拥有丰富的矿产、农产品资源，而它们的服务业、制造业等行业发展相对缓慢，很多中国企业已经将巴西作为出海计划中的 重点城市，填补当地市场需求的空白，也有企业将巴西纳入原材料进口国，丰富企业产 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年5月15日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 缩量调整 市场回顾 今日股指集体收跌，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.91%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落1643.32亿 元。期指方面，各品种均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1.央行发布数据显示，4月末，我国社会融资规模存量同比增长8.7%，M2余额同比增长8%，较上月增速 加快。 核心观点 今日股指缩量调整，大盘股指相对抗跌。四月社会数据昨晚公布，整体来看政府端发力明显，企业信贷和 居民贷款或是受前期关税影响，表现偏弱，需求修复有待提振。随着中美贸易关系缓和，外围不确定性有 所减弱，国内利好政策托底、稳定股市以及国内外流动性宽松的预期较为明确，为指数提供支撑，预计短 期下方空间有限，不过当前指数的驱动以情绪面为主，持续性有待观察，因此建议观望为主，多单可继续 持有。 策略推荐 观望为主 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.74 ...

60阻力，预计锡价区间震荡偏强。操作上，建议短线区间偏多思路，关注26.1-26.8。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-05-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 265210 | -560 6月-7月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 10 | -150 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 32814 | 93 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 30513 | -997 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 729 | -1070 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2775 | -15 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 8719 | -190 LME锡:注销仓 ...

早盘速递 2025/5/15 热点资讯 1、中方针对美方芬太尼关税的反制措施仍然有效。外交部发言人林剑表示，美方以芬太尼为借口对中国无理加征两轮关税，中 方均第一时间采取包括关税和非关税措施在内的反制举措，坚定维护自身正当权益。这些反制措施仍然有效。 2、商务部新闻发言人表示，为落实中美经贸高层会谈共识，自5月14日起，暂停28家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单90天，暂 停17家美国实体不可靠实体清单措施90天。对于开展加强战略矿产出口全链条管控工作，商务部新闻发言人表示，对于铤而走 3、美国调整对华加征关税，于美东时间5月14日凌晨0时01分，撤销对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，调整实施34%的对等关税 措施，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。同时，美方还将对中国小额包裹的国际邮件从价税率由120%下调至 54%，撤销原定于6月1日起将从量税由每件100美元调增为200美元的措施。 4、央行发布数据显示，4月末，我国社会融资规模存量同比增长8.7%，M2余额同比增长8%，较上月增速加快。今年前四个月， 人民币贷款增加10.06万亿元，社会融资规模增量16.34万亿元。4月，企业新发放贷款 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With the substantial progress in Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite has increased, leading to a decline in Treasury bond futures prices and potentially greater short - term fluctuations. The cancellation of some additional tariffs and the establishment of an economic and trade consultation mechanism have eased market避险 sentiment. Meanwhile, the market capital situation continues to loosen, and the manufacturing and export sectors show certain characteristics affected by external and seasonal factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2506 contract dropped by 0.17%. The trading volume and open interest of various contracts changed, with some contracts seeing a decrease in open interest, such as the T2506 contract [2]. - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic Treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 0.92bp to 1.68%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 19.96bp [2]. - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, and GC007 interest rates increased by 1.1bp, 1.03bp, and 1.2bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Bond Yields**: The 10Y US Treasury bond yield rose by 4bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield rose by 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield rose by 5.5bp [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News - **Central Bank Operations**: On May 14, the central bank conducted 920 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 103.5 billion yuan. Starting from May 15, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio, expected to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market [3]. - **Economic Data**: At the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increment was 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of new corporate loans was about 3.2%, 4bp lower than the previous month [3]. - **Tariff Adjustment**: China adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the US, and the US adjusted the additional tariffs on Chinese goods, canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days [3]. 3.5 Industry Information - **Interest Rate Trends**: Most money market interest rates rose, and US Treasury bond yields increased across the board. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield declined to 1.672%. The market capital situation continued to loosen, and the manufacturing and export sectors showed certain characteristics affected by external and seasonal factors [3].