Core Viewpoint - The global environment is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, trade tensions, and the unpredictability of U.S. government policies [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions are a major determinant of the current global economic landscape [1] - Trade disputes continue to create uncertainty in international markets [1] - The unpredictability of U.S. government policies adds to the complexity of the global economic environment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if trade tensions ease rapidly, global economic growth may accelerate, which could lead to a reduction in the extent of domestic interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that the current trade environment is a significant factor influencing economic conditions [1] - A potential easing of trade tensions could positively impact both domestic and global economic outlooks [1] - The statement indicates a cautious optimism regarding future monetary policy adjustments based on external economic factors [1]

文字早评 2025/05/20 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.00%，创指-0.33%，科创 50+0.00%，北证 50+2.37%，上证 50-0.43%，沪深 300-0.31%， 中证 500+0.09%，中证 1000+0.45%，中证 2000+0.86%，万得微盘+1.52%。两市合计成交 10864 亿，较上 一日-31 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、中国 4 月社会消费品零售总额同比放缓至 5.1%。中国 1-4 月全国房地产开发投资同比下降 10.3%， 新建商品房销售面积同比下降 2.8%。 2、中国 4 月规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，工业机器人、新能源汽车产量加速增长。 3、"卖出美国"交易抬头，30 年美债收益率升破 5%，美元加剧下跌。 资金面：融资额-18.83 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+11.70bp 至 1.6540%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+0.78bp 至 3.0455%，十年期国债利率-0.80bp 至 1.6735%，信用利差+1.58bp 至 137bp；美国 10 年期利率-2.00bp 至 4.43%，中美利差+ ...

巴克莱银行表示，总体而言，对欧元区的增长前景依然持谨慎态度，因为当前不确定性仍然很高，欧美 之间关于对等关税的谈判仍停留在技术层面，且尚未出现任何进展迹象。 （文章来源：新华财经） 欧盟委员会周一表示，受贸易紧张局势和气候相关灾害影响，欧元区经济增长前景面临下行风险。 欧盟委员会预计，今明两年欧元区经济增长将放缓，欧元区今年的GDP将仅增长0.9%，低于去年11月 预测的1.3%。到2026年，欧元区经济增长将加速至1.4%，但仍低于欧盟委员会六个月前预计的 1.6%。"增长前景被大幅下调。这在很大程度上是由于全球贸易前景趋弱和贸易政策不确定性上升。经 济前景面临下行风险。全球贸易进一步分化可能会减缓GDP增长，并重新引发通胀压力。与气候有关的 灾害也更加频繁，并且仍然是经济增长下行风险的持续来源。" 通胀率方面，欧盟委员会预计，2025年欧元区消费者通胀率将从2024年的2.4%放缓至2.1%，2026年将 降至1.7%。 不过，假如欧盟和美国之间的紧张关系有所缓和，欧元区经济增长可能会加快。 失业率方面，欧盟委员会预计，2025年欧元区失业率将从2024年的6.4%降至6.3%，2026年将降至 6.1% ...

Group 1 - The recent easing of international trade tensions has led to a rapid recovery in market risk appetite, resulting in a significant decline in gold prices, with London gold spot prices dropping 3.66% to $3202.2 per ounce and COMEX gold futures falling 3.72% to $3205 per ounce [2] - Analysts indicate that the adjustment in precious metal prices is primarily due to the unexpected extent of the easing in trade tensions, prompting a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to riskier assets [2][3] - The geopolitical landscape has also contributed to the decline in gold prices, with expectations of improved U.S.-Iran relations and a reduction in tensions between India and Pakistan [3] Group 2 - Speculative net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 1,300 contracts to 161,200 contracts, while the long-to-short ratio rebounded by 1.6% [3] - The outlook for precious metals remains mixed, with key resistance levels providing support, and expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy potentially limiting further price declines [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor changes in U.S. Treasury yields, as recent political disagreements have impacted market expectations significantly [5]

北京时间18日晚间消息，美国财长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）回应穆迪下调美国信用评级称，他不太相 信穆迪，穆迪评级"落后于指标"。贝森特称，美国GDP增长速度将超过债务增长速度。 关于关税，贝森特表示，会达成很多地区性的协议。贝森特称，美国正将关税讨论集中在18个关键贸易伙伴 上。贝森特还表示，他周六确实与沃尔玛首席执行官麦克米伦进行了交谈，沃尔玛将承担部分关税。 而关于美联储的立场，贝森特表示："美联储并未断言关税会导致通胀，他们只是说不确定，目前处于观望模 式。" 值得关注的是，近期，随着贸易紧张局势的缓和，美股持续反弹，不过也有华尔街分析师发出警告称，反弹可 能过度。到目前为止，贸易框架还远未达成协议。如果没有具体的贸易解决方案，市场波动可能会再次出现。 美国财长发声 贝森特声称，降级与拜登政府的支出政策有关，该政府曾将其吹捧为对优先事项的投资，包括应对气候变化和 增加医疗保险覆盖面。"我们不是在过去100天里陷入这种状况的。" 贝森特称，这是拜登政府及过去四年继承 的支出所致，"我们决心削减开支并推动经济增长"。 贝森特还透露，他周六与沃尔玛首席执行官道格·麦克米伦（Doug McMi ...

研究所 生柴政策多变 美豆油冲高回落 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年5月18日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆先扬后抑，价格较前一周有所上移。周一CBOT大豆创下三个月新高，贸易紧张局势缓解以及美国农业部报告利多帮助大豆价格回升至贸易沖突前水平。美国 农业部预计2025/26年度美国大豆期末库存为2.95亿蒲式耳，分析师预计为3.62亿蒲式耳。美国农业部预计2024/25年度美国大豆期末库存为3.5亿蒲式耳，而4月份的预测是3.7亿蒲式耳，分 析师的预期是3,69亿蒲式耳。 美豆库存下调显示偏紧格局。随后美豆继续刷新高点，据知情人士透露，美国众议院税收委员会拟议的草案计划将45Z清洁燃料税收抵免政策延长至2031年12 月31日，美豆油飙升拉动美豆持续走高。周四美豆高位大幅回落，市场传闻美国可再生燃料义务（RVO）计划可能削减，环保署署长李•泽尔丁在参议院听证会中表达出的谨慎态度，引发了 对生物柴油需求前景的担忧。美豆回吐本周涨幅。与之相比，国 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price fell on May 16, recording its largest weekly decline in six months, primarily due to a stronger dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - As of the report, spot gold dropped by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a daily low of $3,154, marking a nearly 4% decline for the week, the worst since November of the previous year [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by approximately 58 basis points by the end of the year, a significant reduction from the 120 basis points anticipated during the peak of panic in April [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold's price action on Friday mirrored that of Thursday, with a significant drop followed by a potential rebound, indicating a possible double bottom formation [2][4] - The key support levels are identified at $3,152 and $3,140, while resistance is noted at $3,210-3,212, suggesting a wide trading range for the upcoming week [4] - The strategy for the upcoming week is to focus on buying on dips above $3,150 and selling on rallies, with a close watch on the resistance and support levels [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - On May 16, international oil prices experienced slight upward movement, trading around $61.98 per barrel, following a significant drop the previous day due to easing global trade tensions [5] - The market's concerns regarding oil demand were alleviated by a temporary suspension of tariffs between major economies, which is expected to help mitigate fears of a global economic slowdown [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil prices remains bearish, with the price expected to test lower levels around $50 after a series of fluctuations [6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on selling on rallies, with key resistance levels at $63.50-64.00 and support levels at $60.5-60.0 [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price fell on May 16, with a potential for the largest weekly decline in six months, driven by a stronger dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - As of the report, spot gold decreased by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a weekly drop exceeding 3%, marking the worst weekly performance since November 2024 [2] - The market has adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, now anticipating a reduction of about 58 basis points this year, down from a peak of 120 basis points during the panic in April [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On the daily chart, gold showed a strong bullish reversal after hitting a low of 3,120, with a target to test the upper channel at 3,500-3,438, provided that the 3,120 level holds [3] - The recent trading has been influenced by the timing of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with key resistance at 3,211-3,212 [3] - Short-term analysis indicates a potential for a second bottom test followed by a rebound, with critical resistance at 3,211-3,212 and support levels at 3,150 and 3,140 [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - On May 16, international oil prices experienced slight upward movement, trading around $61.98 per barrel, following a significant drop the previous day [6] - The rebound was attributed to easing global trade tensions, which alleviated concerns about the global economy and oil demand, despite ongoing supply surplus pressures [6] - Oil prices had previously fallen over 2% due to comments from President Trump regarding nearing a nuclear deal with Iran, although key differences remain unresolved [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil prices indicates downward pressure from the moving average system, with expectations of a decline towards the $50 level after a series of price fluctuations [7] - Short-term trends show oil prices testing the $60 support level, with a potential for a small upward movement before facing resistance around $63.50 [7] - The recommended trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with key resistance at $63.5-$64.0 and support at $60.5-$60.0 [7]

大家周末，今晚继续关注海外市场的消息。 美股震荡 5月16日晚间，美股走势震荡，三大指数微涨。 自本周早些时候中美官员同意在关税措施上达成90天的停战协议以来，股市强势反弹，投资者对于全球贸易紧张局势升级以及经济风险 上升的担忧有所缓解。 特朗普称美国将在数周内 截至本周，标普500指数上涨了4.5%，道指上涨2.6%，纳指本周迄今已跃升逾6%。周四，标普500和道指双双收高，纳指则小幅回落。 确定对其他国家的关税税率 特朗普声称有"150个国家和地区希望达成协议"。他没有说明具体有多少国家，或是哪些国家将收到信函。他补充说，这些收到信函的国 家"可以提出申诉"，但没有解释这一申诉程序将如何进行。 Certuity首席投资官斯科特·韦尔奇表示："我们认为市场正在进入一个新的阶段，波动性将加大，而那些市值巨大的科技股将不再轻易主 导市场表现。我们并不看空这些股票，只是认为当前进行多元化配置是更明智的做法。" 特朗普表示，他将在"未来两到三周内"为美国的贸易伙伴设定关税税率，并称其政府目前没有能力与所有贸易伙伴同时展开谈判。 特朗普于4月2日宣布对数十个贸易伙伴加征关税，但随后在投资者恐慌情绪下将措施暂缓90天， ...