智利央行：智利6月铜出口46.7亿美元，在总体出口占比为56.44%。 ...

铜供需弱平衡确立 高位震荡渐承压 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：7月4日SHFE主力合约价格小幅回落0.81%，收80030元/ 吨。LME三月期铜价同步下探至9951.5美元/吨，周内高位回调压力显现。 现货升贴水方面，平水铜贴水维持80元/吨，湿法铜贴水收窄至-5元/吨， 市场对高价铜抵触情绪升温，但LME（0-3）基差回落至87.61美元/吨。 持仓与成交：LME持仓量小幅收缩至282135手，国内SHFE库存周内累加 1.01%至95275吨，宏观扰动下多空博弈持续。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：智利6月对华铜及铜矿出口分别回落至29990吨和809837吨，短期 海外矿端增量受限。国内冶炼产能释放强劲，上半年电解铜产量同比增 11.4%。 需求端：淡季效应深化，7月首周精铜杆开工率同比转负，线缆企业开工率 降至67.81%，家电排产同比下滑2.6%，高铜价抑制家电、建筑等领域新增 订单。仅电力板块需求相对稳定，但难抵整体消费疲软。 库存端：LME库存周内去库7.45%至22307吨，COMEX库存增3.7%至220954短 吨；国内SHFE库存连续累库至95275吨 ...

证券代码：002203 证券简称：海亮股份 问题五、公司对铝代铜风险是否有应对？ 您好！公司对铝代铜产业趋势一直有敏锐的认知，并较早布 局了铝材生产基地。当前，铝材生产基地的铝管、铝型材产品除 了发力于铝代铜的空调领域外，还为新能源汽车提供铝散热材料 产品。未来，公司将持续关注市场变化，从产品、工艺、设备三 个维度发力，持续加强在铝加工领域的研发投入，推动产品迭代 升级、工艺优化创新及设备智能化改造。感谢您的关注！ 附件清单（如有） 浙江海亮股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025007 投 资 者 关 系 活 动类别 √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他 （投资者接待日） 参 与 单 位 名 称 及人员姓名 具体参会名单详见附件 时间 2025 年 6 月 23 日-2025 年 7 月 3 日 地点 浙江省杭州市海亮科研大厦会议室 上 市 公 司 接 待 人员姓名 董事会秘书 童莹莹 投 资 者 关 系 活 动 主 要 内 容 介 绍 董事会秘书童莹莹女士向投资者详细介绍了海亮股份的发 展历程、使命愿景、产品服务、全球布局、未来展望等 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Short - term copper prices are expected to run weakly. Although supply tightness supports copper prices due to concerns about Trump's tariff policy implementation and low processing fees, high prices suppress downstream demand, and previous positive factors are weakening, resulting in upward pressure on copper prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. In the first half of the week, it continued the previous week's upward trend. After the release of strong US employment data on Thursday and Trump's passage of the "big and beautiful" bill, the US dollar index rose, and copper prices fell from a high on Friday. The closing price on Friday was 79,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of about - 0.2% compared with the previous week [5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Processing fees remain in the negative range. After the copper price exceeded 80,000 yuan/ton, many refined copper rod enterprises reduced production or stopped production to reduce inventory, causing the weekly operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to drop to 63.74%, a decrease of 10.27% from the previous period and 9.74% lower than expected. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises dropped to 67.81%, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous period and 13.55% from the same period last year [3]. - Affected by the traditional off - season and high copper prices, new orders weakened, and enterprises mainly relied on previous orders. The finished product inventory decreased by 2.33% to 19,670 tons. Except for the relatively stable power industry, demand in other industries was generally suppressed by high copper prices [3]. - As some enterprises' finished product inventories have reached a low level, the operating rate is expected to rise to 71.56% driven by resumption of production. As of July 3, the copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas increased by 0.57 million tons to 13.18 million tons compared with Monday and increased by 0.17 million tons compared with the previous Thursday [3]. 3.3 Macro - economy - The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, which led to a significant decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and a rise in the US dollar. The US House of Representatives passed Trump's bill to significantly cut taxes and increase government spending, which may increase inflationary pressure, putting upward pressure on copper prices [3]. - Trump stated that countries will pay reciprocal tariffs starting from August 1, with tariff rates possibly ranging from 10% to 20% or from 60% to 70% [3].

因此，美国财政市字扩张与美联储仍存降息预期，海外多个钢矿生产或运输存在找动，但是中美互征关税条和与传统消费谈季格征交织，全球电解相总库存量连续累积，或使沪刚价格 有所调整，建议投资者拒然轻仓逢高试空主力合约，关注76000~78000附近支撑位及81000~83000附近压力位，伦将在3300~8600附近支撑位及9900~10200附近压力位，美钢在4.6~4.9 附近支撑位及5.2-5.5附近压力位。(观点评分:-1) 角黄声明：宏辉频货有限公司是经中国亚篮会批准优立的期货配管机构，已具备脱货交易倍资加公务负格。本报告分析及建议所在架的信息均求矫于公开资料。本公司对这些信息的监顾生商完整性不作任所保 证。也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化、我们己力非报告办答的客观、公正，但文中的观点、维辞和建议仅伴参考。不被疯任何线密建议、数配套核据本报告提供的信息进行频登投资所趋成的一 级后果，本公司都不负责。本报告版权优为本公司所有，未经书面许可，在何级的部个人不得以往所影式翻新、夏制和发布。如引用、形发、新准班出处大宏源影街、且否得对本报告进行间视展意的别积、颇 节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提 ...

商 品 研 2025 年 07 月 07 日 铜：全球库存增加，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,730 | -1.03% | 79720 | -0.01% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,852 | -1.00% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 100,562 | 17,176 | 215,738 | -8,934 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,938 | -503 | 285,000 | 2,425 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 22,307 | -1,796 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 95,275 | 950 | 35.63% | 1.81% | | ...

Core Insights - Copper prices for both London and Shanghai futures have declined, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] - Copper inventories have increased for four consecutive days, suggesting a potential oversupply situation [1] - Upcoming announcements from Trump regarding trade policies may significantly impact future copper price movements [1] Group 1 - The decline in copper prices reflects broader market concerns and potential shifts in demand [1] - The continuous rise in copper inventories could lead to further price pressure if the trend persists [1] - The market is closely monitoring trade policy developments, which could introduce volatility in copper prices [1]

创业板指跌超1%，沪指跌0.2%，深成指跌0.59%，CPO、铜缆高速连接、机器人、消费电子等板块跌幅 居前，沪深京三市下跌个股超2900只。 ...

先说个有意思的现象：业内人都在说，最近好多交易商正扎堆把铜往美国运。为啥？明眼人都看出来了，这是抢在特朗普可能上调关税的最后期限前囤 货呢。想想看，要是关税真涨上去，进口铜的成本可就高了，现在赶紧往美国仓库里搬，相当于提前锁死低价筹码，这波操作跟买菜囤打折菜一个道 理，就是规模差了十万八千里。 但囤货只是表面，咱得往深了看。首先美国那边需求确实有点猛，基建项目重启后，电线电缆、建筑用铜的订单蹭蹭涨，洛杉矶长滩港最近卸的铜板材 集装箱数量比去年同期多了快两成。加上LME铜库存最近又往下掉，交易所仓单量都快跌破50万吨了，供需这根弦一绷紧，价格自然容易往上窜。 各位朋友好，我是帮主郑重。最近有色金属圈可热闹了，黄金白银刚飙完，咱们的"铜博士"也坐不住了——国际铜价这周直接冲破三个月新高，伦敦铜价 眼瞅着又往年内高点窜。这铜价突然起飞，背后可有不少门道，今天咱就掰开了聊。 还有个点容易被忽略：现在全球铜矿开采其实有点"卡脖子"。南美的智利秘鲁前阵子闹工人罢工，刚果（金）的铜钴矿运输又受地缘影响，矿企产能跟不 上，冶炼厂只能靠吃库存过日子。这时候美国突然来一波集中囤货，就像往原本就烧着的炉子上又添了把柴，铜价不涨才怪 ...

——铜行业周报（20250630-20250704） 要点 2025 年 7 月 6 日 行业研究 6 月电解铜产量环比下降 0.3%、同比增长 13% 本周小结：需求继续走弱，逼仓风险仍存。截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，SHFE 铜收 盘价 79730 元/吨，环比 6 月 27 日-0.24%；LME 铜收盘价 9852 美元/吨，环 比 6 月 27 日-0.27%。（1）交易：LME 铜库存本周微升，但仍处于 10 万吨以 下，美国以外的铜市场现货紧张局面并未扭转。（2）供需：矿端、废铜预期后 续仍维持紧张；需求端，线缆开工率持续回落，7-9 月国内空调排产同比增速逐 步放缓，需求后续有走弱风险。短期逼仓风险仍存，铜价或仍表现强势，逼仓交 易结束后或重回震荡。 库存：国内铜社库环比+1.3%，LME 铜库存环比+5.1%。（1）国内港口铜精矿 库存：截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 66.6 万吨，环比上周 +6.8%。（2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，全球三大交易所库存 合计 38.1 万吨，环比-4.1%。截至 2025 年 7 月 3 日 ...