文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 6 月及二季度，经济或呈现低波运行特征。 首先，从 GDP 数据来看，受益于国内的两新政策、出口 的韧性，生产端保持较快增长。预计 2 季度全部工业生产增速 5.9% 左右，预计 2 季度 GDP 增速在 5.3% 左右，接近 1 季度的 5.4% 。其次，受益于政府债发行的前值，社融增速稳中有升，预计 6 月末抬升至 8.8% 左右。再次，市场较为关注的出口数据，增速或边际放缓，但仍有韧性，预计 6 月出口同比在 3.5% 左右。 后续来看，关注重心在可能带来经济走势出现变化的几个方向。包括美国与各国的关税谈判进展、地产的 库存去化、"反内卷"在供给端的约束等。 报告摘要 一、 GDP ：预计 2 季度 GDP 增速在 5.3% 左右。 主要原因来看： 1 ）受益于设备更新、以旧换新、出口韧性，工业生产在 2 季度维持偏强态势。预计 2 季 度全部工业（规上 + 规下）增速在 5.9% 左右。 2 ）受益于以旧换新，零售环节增速继续回升，预计批发 零售业 ...

Core Insights - Vietnam's retail sales in June increased by 8.3% year-on-year, a decrease from the previous value of 10.2% [1] Group 1 - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales indicates a slowdown in consumer spending compared to the previous month [1] - The current growth rate of 8.3% reflects ongoing economic conditions and consumer confidence in Vietnam [1] - The decline from 10.2% to 8.3% suggests potential challenges in the retail sector that may need to be addressed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The number of billion-dollar real estate companies in China is sharply declining, with only a few remaining amidst a cooling new housing market [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance of Real Estate Companies - In the first half of 2025, only three companies—Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Overseas—achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with sales figures of 133.61 billion yuan, 122.11 billion yuan, and 114.12 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The overall sales performance indicates that by the end of 2025, it is estimated that only seven companies may reach the billion-dollar sales mark [2]. Group 2: New Housing Market Trends - The new housing market is experiencing a downturn, with a 2.9% year-on-year decrease in the sales area of newly built commercial housing from January to May 2025, and a 3.8% decline in sales revenue [3]. - The sales of pre-sold properties fell by 10.0%, while the sales of existing homes increased by 13.2% during the same period, indicating a preference for existing homes over new constructions [3]. Group 3: Market Segmentation and Pricing - The demand for homes in the 90-120 square meter range remains dominant, but there is an increasing interest in larger units (120-140 square meters and 180-220 square meters), reflecting a shift towards both first-time buyers and those seeking improved living conditions [6]. - In major cities, such as Shanghai, high-end projects are seeing strong demand, with some properties selling out quickly, while peripheral areas face significant challenges with low buyer interest [5]. Group 4: Land Market Dynamics - The residential land market is showing signs of recovery, with a nearly 30% year-on-year increase in land transfer fees across 300 cities, and an average premium rate of 10.2% [7]. - Core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are experiencing high demand for quality land parcels, with significant premium rates achieved during land auctions [8][9].

Group 1 - The company plans to sell 80,000 vehicles in Mexico by 2025, an increase from 50,000 vehicles sold last year [1]

Group 1 - The company held its 24th meeting of the 4th Supervisory Board on July 4, 2025, to discuss important matters [2][3] - The Supervisory Board approved the proposal to participate in the auction for 81.96% equity of Kasma Holdings Co., Ltd. held by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Holdings Co., Ltd. [3][4] - The auction aims to expand the company's sales channels, integrate downstream resources, and enhance market competitiveness and profitability [3][15] Group 2 - The auction is for 81.96% equity of Kasma Holdings with a starting price of 201.989109 million yuan [8][10] - The auction will take place at the Beijing Property Exchange, with a two-phase bidding process scheduled for July 7, 2025 [14] - The transaction does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring as defined by relevant regulations [10][12] Group 3 - The Chinese Academy of Sciences Holdings Co., Ltd. is the seller, a state-owned enterprise with a registered capital of 5.06703 billion yuan [11] - Kasma Holdings Co., Ltd. has a registered capital of 50 million yuan and engages in various investment and consulting activities [13] - The first major shareholder of Kasma Holdings is the Chinese Academy of Sciences Holdings, which holds 81.96% of the equity [13]

Sales Performance - In June 2025, the company reported a sales revenue of 122.40 million yuan from live pig sales, with an average selling price of 14.76 yuan per kilogram [1] - The total number of piglets sold was 284,900, and the number of breeding pigs sold was 3,700, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.57% [1] - The cumulative sales revenue from live pigs amounted to 762.52 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.23% [1] Additional Information - The disclosed sales data only includes the company's livestock breeding business and does not account for other business segments [2] - The sales data is preliminary and unaudited, and may differ from the figures reported in periodic disclosures [1]

新规即将施行，银行代销业务迎来强监管时代 《中国科技投资》张婷 龙秋月 近日，江苏证监局官网披露，该局对江阴银行（002807.SZ）、无锡农商行（600908.SH）、江苏江南农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"江南农商 行"）的基金销售业务进行了现场检查。经查，江苏省内三家农商行的基金销售业务存在制度建设、内部控制和风险管理以及信息报送等方面的问题。 记者梳理2024年以来银行业因基金销售业务违规的相关罚单发现，无证上岗是较为突出的问题。内控机制不健全（如未设立产品准入委员会、未完善利益 冲突防范机制）和销售行为不规范（如夸大宣传、未充分风险揭示）也较为普遍。 江苏证监局在对该行的监管函中指出，部分从事基金销售相关业务的人员未取得基金从业资格，这亦是在基金销售业务常见的违规事项之一。《公开募集 证券投资基金销售机构监督管理办法》第八条第四项规定，负责基金销售业务的部门取得基金从业资格的人员不低于该部门员工人数的1/2，部门负责人 取得基金从业资格，并具备从事基金业务2年以上或者在金融机构5年以上的工作经历；分支机构基金销售业务负责人取得基金从业资格。 记者查询公开信息获悉，这是江阴银行首次因基金销售业务被 ...

Group 1 - Toyota and Honda reported slight year-on-year increases in U.S. sales for June, reflecting a decline in the pre-tariff buying surge [1] - Toyota's U.S. sales rose by 0.1% to 193,248 units, a slowdown compared to 11% in May and 10% in April [1] - Honda's sales increased by 2% to 114,486 units, down from 7% in May and 18% in April [1] Group 2 - Subaru's sales fell by 16% to 46,515 units, marking the second consecutive month of decline [1] - Mazda's sales decreased by 6% to 33,385 units, also experiencing a second month of year-on-year decline [1] - The decline in Subaru and Mazda sales follows drops of 10% and 19% respectively in May [1] Group 3 - The increase in vehicle prices due to a 25% tariff on imported cars imposed by the Trump administration has led to a slowdown in future sales growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Feima Store in rural areas of Dafeng District, Yancheng City, has significantly improved access to fresh produce for local residents, eliminating the need for long trips to urban supermarkets [1][3]. Group 1: Business Model - Feima Store operates on a "fresh direct supply + physical sales" model, which was developed by two young entrepreneurs who recognized the consumption challenges faced by rural communities [3][5]. - The company has expanded to 21 stores across five towns, effectively addressing the "last mile" of fresh produce distribution in rural areas [3][5]. Group 2: Logistics and Supply Chain - The company employs a "bus-like" logistics model, delivering goods to stores three times a day, which minimizes product backlog and reduces waste [5]. - Five delivery trucks operate on a fixed schedule, ensuring timely delivery of fresh products to all stores [5]. Group 3: Product Quality and Employment - Feima Store emphasizes product quality by regularly monitoring expiration dates and using a modular ordering system for traceability [5]. - The establishment of these stores has created over 50 job opportunities for local villagers, contributing to increased income [5].

Core Point - Italy's retail sales in May increased by 1.3% year-on-year, a decrease from the previous value of 3.7% [1] Summary by Category - **Retail Sales Performance** - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales in Italy for May is reported at 1.3% [1] - This figure represents a decline from the prior year's growth rate of 3.7% [1]