Tech Sector Analysis - Tech earnings continue to print well into the double digits, reaching all-time highs, driven by fundamentals rather than just multiple expansion [1] - The value of tech in portfolios is significant, especially with tariff uncertainty, making US growth exposure valuable [2] - Overweighting tech in portfolios can be justified if earnings continue to print and multiples expand, particularly if a tariff-induced slowdown occurs [3] - Quality active management is crucial within the tech sector, specifically within the "Magnificent 7" portion [4] Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The market is still awaiting the bite of tariffs, with a wide range of potential outcomes [5][6] - Commentary on consumer behavior and business investment decisions is important in assessing the impact of tariffs [6] - Focus should be on how tariff rates on major partners (Canada, Mexico, China) affect the economy, while monitoring GDP resilience [8] - There are concerns about the lower cohort, with negative year-on-year card spend and light comps in certain sectors [7] Investment Strategy - A balanced approach in a multi-asset portfolio is currently most appropriate [10] - Mid-single-digit yields on core fixed income are competitive with mid-single-digit earnings yields on equities, given elevated multiples [11] - The strategy is to remain patient, vigilant, and opportunistic, waiting for the next bout of volatility [12] - US growth is expected to be the dominant driver of 10-year Treasury yields in the long term, with yields in the mid-4% range commensurate with US growth [14]

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Market Outlook & Strategy - The firm maintains an overweight position in equities since early May [1][2] - Positive July seasonality, especially after strong May and June gains (greater than 5%), suggests continued market strength [3] - Expects the rate of the rally to slow down after July [5] Earnings & Fundamentals - Earnings estimates have come down more than necessary due to tariff concerns, potentially creating a lower bar for companies to surpass in the second half of the year [6] Fiscal Policy Impact - The US is running 6-7% deficits, which equates to 6-7% unfunded money creation into the economy, serving as a backbone for the economy and market [7] - Fiscal stimulus is a significant factor supporting the market, even with struggles in areas like home building and housing [8] Investment Flows - Systematic bids that were forced out during the VA event in April are getting back in [5][6]

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Market Trends & Investment Strategies - The discussion revolves around investment strategies concerning treasuries, particularly the 20-year Bond ETF (TLT), and European bonds [1] - The firm expresses reservations about the back end of the yield curve, considering alternatives like ECB rate cuts or seeking opportunities at the long end [2] - Tactical buying of the long end of the yield curve is considered around quarter-end [2] - Long-duration assets can be helpful if geopolitical risks resurface or inflation declines [5] - Currently, equities, especially growth equities with a 19% ROE, are favored over long-duration bonds due to inflation concerns and tariff issues [5][6] Duration & Hedging - Duration is viewed as no longer a reliable hedge [4] - TLT is considered an efficient vehicle for gaining duration when needed, although not currently favored [3] Economic Factors - Inflation expectations and potential tariff problems are key themes influencing market movements [5]

All right, one big beautiful bill making its way. We're going to continue to see uh it go to the floor today with a reading. What's your perspective what it means for equities and also for the bond market.Um do you expect the bond vigilantes to react to some of the deficit increasing measures here. I don't Frank. I think we're well past that.I mean everybody's been looking for a reason to uh to get nervous and every time they do they they regret it a week or a day or a month later. So I think we're in a ver ...

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