For global stocks riding the wave of trade optimism, the Fed’s interest-rate announcement is likely to serve as a timely reminder that monetary policy still presents a risk to the rally https://t.co/s3BDR64GKj ...

Australia’s core inflation cooled in the three months through June, strengthening the case for the Reserve Bank to ease monetary policy as early as August https://t.co/d0TZJBmntH ...

Singapore left its monetary policy unchanged Wednesday after two consecutive rounds of easing, https://t.co/1et9X7bco2 ...

There is exactly one person who is responsible for keeping those interest rates high and that's Donald Trump. Jerome Powell said last month that he would have urged the Fed to lower interest rates last February, but for the chaos that Donald Trump has been causing over tariffs and the kind of fallout that that's going to create in the economy. But I also want to see an independent Fed.And when Donald Trump simply tries to persuade, he says, "Here are the arguments in favor. Here's why I think you should do ...

Macroeconomic Critique - Macroeconomics has made little progress in a century, struggling with economic growth, fiscal, and monetary policy determinants [2] - Economists were surprised by the inflation of late 2021 and 2022, and recurring banking crises, due to misinterpreting central bank policies [3] - Economic models often lack banks, leading to failures in understanding banking crises [5] Money Creation and Banking - Most people incorrectly believe the government or central bank creates the majority of money [8] - Banks create most of the money supply through credit creation, not by lending deposits [9][10] - Banks create money by issuing loans, which legally establish an accounts payable liability to customers, represented as customer deposits [11] Banking System Structure and Economic Impact - A banking system dominated by a few mega-banks can lead to asset price inflation and boom-bust cycles [12] - Decentralized banking systems with small local banks lending to small firms can foster growth without inflation and asset bubbles [13] - East Asian economies achieved high growth through decentralized banking systems focused on productive business investment [14] Growth and Sustainability - Economic growth is a statistical fiction, not a physical reality, and is not inherently harmful to the environment [17] - The concept of economic growth is used by bankers to maximize interest charges on national debt [19] Central Bank Policies and Inflation - Quantitative easing (QE) policies have different effects depending on implementation; QE1 cleans up bank balance sheets, while QE2 boosts the economy [20][21] - Implementing QE2 in 2020, when demand was reasonable but supply was restricted, led to inflation [22][23] Policy Recommendations - Advocates for preventing centralized systems like central bank digital currencies, which could lead to less growth and prosperity [24] - Encourages the establishment of many small banks to decentralize the financial system and promote economic growth [24] - Decentralizing the financial system can create job opportunities in rural areas and support government policies to increase fertility [25][26][27]

🇺🇸 FOMC: Tomorrow, the Fed will decide whether to cut, hike, or keep rates unchanged.What’s your prediction? https://t.co/IyONSMUZMN ...

Market Manipulation & Risk - The market has become heavily manipulated, fundamentally altering the nature of risk [1] - Traditional risk assessment is less relevant due to government intervention [1][2] - Government intervention effectively guarantees asset owner success, preventing mass stock market investor failure [2] Government Intervention & Economic Impact - The US government will actively prevent stock market collapse to protect the economy [2] - The 2008 financial crisis marked a turning point where central banks began intervening to support markets [2] Investment Strategy & Market Outlook - The recommended investment strategy is to take long positions and remain calm [3] - Central banks are expected to continue printing money, potentially leading to currency devaluation [3] - Bitcoin and gold are expected to outperform as central banks continue printing money [3]

Fed Independence & Political Pressure - The President's ability to remove the Fed Chair is limited by legal standards, which are currently not met [1][2] - Constant criticism from the President can damage the Federal Reserve's credibility as an institution, not just the Fed Chair [3] - Markets currently trust the Fed Chair due to his clarity and consistency in pursuing economic goals [3] - Presidential pressure can create a challenging environment for future Fed Chairs to establish credibility [4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve Banks is an important element of the Fed's overall independence [8][9] - Historical context shows past struggles between presidents and Fed Chairs, highlighting the importance of protecting the institution [9][10] Monetary Policy & Economic Impact - A Fed Chair has only one vote out of 12 on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which determines monetary policy [5][6] - A new Fed Chair needs to gain support from a majority (seven votes) within the FOMC to implement desired policies [6] - Maintaining central bank independence is crucial to assure creditors that the country will not inflate away its debt [7] - Lack of credibility in the central bank can lead to significant financing costs [8]

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - President Trump pressured the Fed Chair to cut interest rates, an extraordinary scene in the Fed building [3][4] - Markets are repricing expectations to fewer than two rate cuts by the Fed [8] - The Fed is expected to remain independent and will do what it needs to do, regardless of political pressure [9][10] - Inflation forecasts are expected to remain under 2% for the next 18 months [14] Trade & Tariffs - A 15% tariff deal would basically mean trade shuts down [12] - Volkswagen expects around 15% tariff levels from EU talks [75] - Investors believe tariffs between 10% and 20% are manageable for the luxury sector [85] Company Performance & Market Dynamics - Volkswagen cut its outlook for the year due to US tariffs weighing on Audi and Porsche brands [22] - German business confidence rose to 89.6 in July, up from 88.4 [34] - LVMH's luxury product sales slumped in China and Japan, but the market is calling the trough [76][77] Geopolitical Issues - France will recognize Palestinian statehood in September, adding pressure on Israel [41][43] - Negotiations for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel have broken down [44] Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare - An AI startup received $150 million in financing, bringing total funding to $370 million, to speed up the development of a model that will help physicians with clinical decisions [61] - The AI model aims to cover practically every relevant disease within three years to support physicians in their care delivery [64] - The AI technology analyzes 45 million patients a year, deploying over 2000 hospitals [65]

Market Risk - Bank of America strategists suggest a rising risk of a stock market bubble due to loosening monetary policy and easing financial regulation [1]