如果说比巴菲特小14岁的阿甘代表了蓝领的美国梦，那巴菲特一定就代表了白领的美国梦。阿甘的故事告 诉你，即便你有着先天的残疾，脑子很笨，但可以靠努力过上想要的生活。巴菲特的故事告诉你，20岁的 你只有1万美元，但94岁的你可以有1600亿美元。 相隔太平洋，这也曾是我们的信念。 1994年《阿甘正传》上映之后，人们深受感染："无论逆境多么巨大，美国梦都触手可及。" 这一年，巴菲特的收益率也稳定地到达顶峰。他完美的70年职业生涯也是美国完美的70年国运。它不断胜 利，赢下二战，赢下冷战，是天许之地，是"美国例外"。 前几天，巴菲特退休了。在最后一场股东大会的谢幕演出上，他也对繁荣了70年的美国资本主义做出了总 结。 三年前退休的桥水基金创始人，"对冲基金史上最成功的基金经理"达利欧，近期也非常活跃，他做出预 言：旧世界正在解体。这个旧世界，不仅供养了巴菲特的成功，也构建了我们的世界观。 大型基金的管理人，是对世界变动最为敏锐的一群人。他们的职业本质，是为未来下注；投资者为他们的 判断力支付高额费用。激烈的竞争机制迫使管理人的思考必须有前瞻性，同时又脚踏实地。 那么，巴菲特是如何总结的，达利欧又是如何预言的？ 一、 ...

与十年前"仿制为主"的形象相比，中国药企已经走到了"原创创新+出海授权"的新阶段。 追风交易台最新消息，高盛稍早前发布研报指出，创新药板块这波涨势背后的核心动力，是以"出海授权"为代表的中国创新药全球化浪潮。2025 年上半年，中国生物科技板块录得78%的强劲涨幅，显著跑赢恒生医疗指数（+41%）、MSCI中国（+18%）以及美股生技板块XBI（-6%）。 高盛认为，中国生物科技行业正在经历一次结构性重估，本轮大涨并非短期反弹。截至目前，中国生物科技公司整体市值仍仅为美国同行的 14%-15%，而其在全球创新贡献中的比重已接近33%。这意味着，中国创新药板块仍处于"价值洼地"阶段，全球资本重估才刚刚开始。 伴随中国药企在全球创新药管线中占比持续攀升，以及对前沿技术模式的深入布局，行业有望持续释放长期价值。 中国创新药正在向全球输出，但仍陷于"价值洼地" 中国在全球创新药体系中的角色，正在从"本土创新"向"全球输出"加速演变。 高盛数据显示，截至2025年上半年，中国贡献了全球50%的新进入人体临床的新药分子，并拥有约1/3的全球创新药在研管线。十年前，这一占比 仅为个位数。尤其是在ADC（抗体偶联药物）、Bs ...

证券研究报告 月酝知风之银行业 ——股息仍具吸引力，关注长期资金入市 银行行业 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 袁喆奇 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520080003 许淼 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525020001 研究助理 李灵琇 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070021 2025年7月9日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 2 行业核心观点：资金结构深刻变化，顺势而为重配置轻交易。资金流向的变化是推动板块估值修复中不可忽视的力量，一方面被动指数的持续扩容带来了稳定的资金流入，板块 高权重的特征仍将持续推动资金的流入，一方面银行板块低波高红利的特征更易获得险资等中长期资金的青睐，目前板块平均股息率达到3.86%，结合监管一系列引导中长期资金 入市的措施，预计板块的股息配置价值吸引力仍将持续。个股维度，我们结合股息和潜在增量中长期资金流入空间看好A股股份行板块以及部分优质区域行（成都、北京、江苏、 上海、苏州、长沙），同时关注更具股息优势的港股大行配置机会。 行业热点跟踪：中长期资金趋势性流入，高股息价值投资持续。险资持续增配银行板块。24年以来险资增配速度略有提升，新会计准则运用之后保险资金为了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cultural war initiated by Trump, aiming to eliminate liberal influences in the arts and promote a patriotic, conservative American culture [1][7][16]. Group 1: Events and Performances - The "International Pride Symphony Orchestra" held a performance in Washington, featuring a drag queen host and a transgender pianist, under the flags of the U.S. and LGBTQ+ rights [3]. - The performance was initially scheduled at the Kennedy Center but was canceled after Trump assumed control and replaced the board with his allies [4][6]. Group 2: Reactions and Resistance - Various arts organizations, including "Washington Performing Arts," announced they would no longer use the Kennedy Center for upcoming seasons, indicating a silent resistance to Trump's influence [8]. - Some popular shows, like the Broadway musical "Hamilton," publicly opposed Trump, leading to cancellations at the Kennedy Center, while many individuals chose to avoid direct political actions [9]. Group 3: Trump's Actions and Policies - Trump signed an executive order targeting the Smithsonian Institution, demanding changes to exhibitions he deemed divisive, particularly those addressing racial issues in American history [10][12]. - Despite Trump's orders, the Smithsonian American Art Museum's exhibition remained unchanged, and LGBTQ+ pride events continued as scheduled [12]. Group 4: Cultural Division and Future Implications - Public opinion is divided, with most Democrats opposing Trump's interference in the arts, while over half of Republican supporters approve of it [16]. - The ongoing cultural war reflects a broader struggle between conservative and liberal values, with experts suggesting that Trump's actions may lead to a regression in cultural values and threaten the core of artistic expression [16].

在全球资源博弈的棋盘上，稀土正成为大国角力的焦点。近日，美日印澳四国突然联手，试图通过"关键矿产倡议"构建稀土供应链围堵中国， 而中国则以一部法律和一项出口管制措施强势反击，这场关乎高科技命脉的资源战争已悄然打响。 四国联盟的"算盘"与分工 2025年7月1日，美国国务卿鲁比奥在华盛顿与澳大利亚、印度和日本外长会晤，正式敲定"四方关键矿产倡议"。这个时间点耐人寻味——恰逢 中国新版《矿产资源法》实施的同一天。四国各怀心思：日本贡献稀土专利技术，信越化学、日立金属等企业掌控全球高性能磁材市场；澳大 利亚提供稀土矿藏，韦尔德山矿品质优良且开采难度低，莱纳斯公司是西方唯一具备部分中重稀土提炼能力的企业；印度则被安排处理高污染 的稀土废料，因其"耐造"的环保承受力；美国则坐享其成，试图通过这种分工模式打破中国稀土垄断。 稀土（资料图） 中国的"组合拳"反击 面对四国围堵，中国迅速打出两记重拳。2025年7月1日实施的新版《矿产资源法》将稀土列入"战略性矿产目录"，建立保护性开发制度，这距 上次大修已过去整整29年。更精准的打击来自4月4日商务部和海关总署的公告——对钐、钆等中重稀土物项实施出口管制，要求出口商申请许 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant events impacting the capital market in the first half of 2025, highlighting the performance of various securities and the emergence of new private equity firms in China [2][5]. Market Performance - Major indices in China's A-share market showed volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index by approximately 0.48%, and the ChiNext Index by about 0.53% in the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The maximum gains for these indices were 11.61% for the Shanghai Composite, 12.44% for the Shenzhen Component, and 19.13% for the ChiNext, while the maximum drawdowns were -9.71%, -14.98%, and -20.79% respectively [3]. Private Equity Landscape - The number of billion-yuan private equity firms in China has increased to 88, with the addition of one new firm, Micro博易 [5]. - Among these firms, 67 focus on stock strategies, 13 on multi-asset strategies, 5 on bond strategies, and 2 on futures and derivatives [5]. - Shanghai has the highest concentration of these firms, with 35 located there, followed by Beijing with 24 and Shenzhen with 7 [5]. Performance Rankings of Private Equity Firms - In the first half of 2025, the top-performing private equity firm was 稳博投资, with an average return of approximately ***% across its products [8][12]. - 进化论资产 ranked second, also achieving an average return of ***% [13]. - The rankings for the past year showed 天演资本 at the top, followed by 龙旗科技 [14][18]. - Over the past three years, 君之健投资 led the rankings, with 阿巴马投资 and 天演资本 following [20][22]. - For the past five years, 日斗投资 was the top performer, with 君之健投资 and 龙旗科技 also ranking highly [25][27]. Notable Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of quantitative strategies in private equity, with many top firms employing such methods to achieve significant returns [8][12][20]. - The performance of private equity firms is closely tied to market conditions, with many managers expressing optimism about future growth in sectors like entertainment and finance [29].

值得注意的是，红利国企ETF（510720）在上市后的每个月都做到了分红，已连续分红14个月，是市场 上少有的每月践行分红的ETF基金，感兴趣的朋友可以逢低布局，一起来"月月领分红"。 短期来看，红利表现更优，且在中报披露期即将到来的情况下，红利板块带来了更好的避险属性，这在 短期对市场有了一定的支持作用，而中长期来看，市场想要继续上行，仍需科技抗鼎。配置策略上，仍 建议哑铃型策略，一方面，仍适度持有科技板块，另一方面，仍可保留红利板块的配置，在此基础上或 可酌情增配。 红利国企ETF跟踪的是上国红利指数，该指数由上海证券交易所编制，选取具有较高现金股息率、分红 稳定且具有一定规模与流动性的上市公司证券作为样本，以反映高股息国企证券的整体表现。该指数成 分股覆盖多个行业，注重稳定的现金流回报，偏好价值型投资风格，为投资者提供长期稳定的分红收 益。 相关机构表示，从海外视角来看，美国仍处在内部混乱的局面中。"大而美"法案以51：50的票数落地， 马特冲突再起，特朗普团队短期充满戏剧性的政策频频变动，为全球市场再度带来了扰动。而再回到国 内，科技板块上冲势头遇阻，进入7月，在逐步进入半年报披露期的情况下，场内投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the new market value management regulations has led to significant developments in investor relations management, with 644 listed companies implementing value management systems or valuation enhancement plans since November 2022 [1] Group 1: Current State of Central State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) - As of 2024, 492 central SOEs account for 9.14% of A-share listed companies but contribute 36.32% of total market value, 43.74% of revenue, and 59.03% of net profit, highlighting their critical role in the national economy [1] - There is a notable disparity within central SOEs, with companies valued over 50 billion yuan contributing nearly 80% of market value and over 90% of net profit, while smaller companies (under 10 billion yuan) represent 36.79% of the total but only 2.82% of market value [2] Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations for Small and Medium-Sized SOEs - Small and medium-sized central SOEs face dual pressures on profitability and valuation, with challenges including outdated capital tools and insufficient innovation [2] - Recommendations for regulatory bodies include differentiated assessments focusing on R&D conversion rates for tech companies and flexible regulations for companies in economically challenged regions [2][3] Group 3: Strategies for Transformation - For tech companies, strategies include binding core technologies to teams, establishing innovation incubation mechanisms, and creating suitable incentive systems [3] - Traditional industries are encouraged to upgrade production capacity, integrate supply chains, and pursue asset securitization [3] - Public service companies should focus on value reconstruction, achieving ESG premiums, and transitioning to smart services [3] Group 4: Implementation of Capital Tools - Companies can create a collaborative matrix of capital tools such as buybacks, ESG disclosures, and supply chain integration to enhance market value management [4] - Successful case studies include improvements in R&D efficiency and valuation recovery through innovative practices [4] Group 5: Long-term Goals - Short-term goals include restoring the valuation of 30 underperforming companies to a price-to-book ratio of 1.0 and reducing the overall discount rate of central SOEs by 15% by 2026 [5] - Mid-term objectives aim for a 15% increase in buyback amounts and a 25% rise in institutional holdings in small and medium-sized SOEs by 2027 [5] - Long-term aspirations include achieving a 6% R&D intensity and surpassing 500 billion yuan in overall R&D investment by 2030, with a total market value of central SOEs exceeding 100 trillion yuan [5]

从贸易大数据看关税冲击下的中国外需 20250708 摘要 中国出口展现韧性：尽管面临关税压力，中国年初以来出口增长强于多 数经济体，4-5 月仍实现增长，表明贸易动能切换，新兴市场占比上升， 发达经济体占比下降，新市场需求成核心支撑。 商品类别差异：关税对消费品冲击明显，中间品和资本品展现韧性，反 映中国在全球竞争优势。锂电池、新能源车、工程机械、集成电路等高 景气，光伏、建材、纺织品等受拖累，高景气商品在新兴和发达市场均 有需求。 对美出口影响：约 70%输美产品具关税弹性受冲击，10%受严重打击， 20%具韧性。消费品冲击大于中间品，消费电子压力大，电子元件及锂 电池具韧性。二季度输美价格走弱，数量下降，部分厂商以价换量。 主要品类下跌：二季度中国对美出口主要品类全线下跌，汽车链条、电 子元件、户外运动用品、钢铁制品和纺织服装等品类因价格竞争优势保 持韧性。 战略商品调整：一季度美国对中国稀土需求强劲，二季度中国实施防治 措施后，美国进口大幅回落。5 月中美贸易政策缓和，但 5 月出口仍下 行。战略商品出口可作为经贸关系指标。 Q&A 当前美国对华关税背景下，对中国不同类型产品出口有哪些具体影响？ 在当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the inspiring stories of moral models in Shandong Province who provide emotional support and practical assistance to underprivileged children and disabled individuals, embodying the core values of socialism [1][2][3]. Group 1: Contributions to Underprivileged Children - Liu Zhenbiao, a school principal, shares his experience of helping a troubled child named Xiao Meng, who faced family loss and emotional distress, by providing mentorship and life skills training [1]. - Liu Zhenbiao aims to expand the growth camp initiative to reach more rural children, emphasizing the importance of hope and love in their lives [2]. Group 2: Support for Disabled Children - Yang Shouwei, deputy director of a children's welfare institute, discusses her commitment to caring for disabled children, highlighting the high percentage (over 90%) of children with severe disabilities in the institution [2]. - Yang has implemented innovative rehabilitation techniques and community outreach programs to enhance the quality of life for disabled children, aiming for them to lead fulfilling lives [2]. Group 3: Acts of Heroism - Liu Shiyu, a fisherman, recounts his life-saving rescues at sea, emphasizing the instinctual nature of helping others in danger, regardless of personal risk [3]. - Liu Shiyu actively participates in community safety training and shares his experiences to promote maritime safety and community solidarity [3].