据央视新闻，当地时间3日，罗马尼亚总理伊利耶.博洛让在接受媒体采访时表示，近期关于罗马尼亚可 能向乌克兰派遣军队的说法毫无根据，罗马尼亚在任何情况下都不考虑军事介入俄乌冲突。不过，博洛 让也指出，罗马尼亚将继续逐步增加军费预算，以满足北约的要求，并与欧盟更广泛的军事化议程保持 一致。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent phone conversation between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump confirms that Moscow's stance on the Ukraine conflict remains unchanged, indicating a steadfast strategic position in both military and diplomatic arenas [1] Group 1 - The conversation between the two leaders highlights Russia's continued commitment to its strategy regarding the Ukraine conflict [1] - Expert Igor Korazov suggests that the U.S. decision to partially suspend weapon supplies to Ukraine is not a tactical maneuver but rather a result of Washington's depleted stockpiles and NATO's structural limitations [1]

另据美国新闻网站阿克西奥斯报道，通话持续约40分钟，两国总统讨论了俄乌局势以及乌防空物资的问 题。特朗普在通话中告诉泽连斯基，他将了解具体哪些武器的输送被暂时搁置。 泽连斯基4日在社交媒体发文说，他当天与特朗普进行了"重要和富有成果的通话"，双方同意将共同努 力加强乌防空能力。 3月20日，在比利时布鲁塞尔举行的欧盟峰会上，乌克兰总统泽连斯基通过视频发表讲话。新华社发 （欧盟供图） 泽连斯基说，乌方对美方提供的支持表示感激。他与特朗普讨论了当前局势，包括俄方空袭及其不断扩 大的战线。双方讨论了在防空方面开展合作的可能性，同意将共同努力加强对乌领空的保护。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基4日与美国总统特朗普通电话，双方就乌克兰局势、乌美合作等进行讨论。俄罗斯 国防部当天通报说，过去一夜，俄军对乌克兰无人机研发和生产企业、军用机场和炼油厂等发动了大规 模打击。 2月28日，美国总统特朗普在华盛顿白宫迎接乌克兰总统泽连斯基（右）。 新华社记者胡友松摄 泽连斯基：通话重要且富有成果 据乌克兰媒体4日报道，乌克兰总统办公室主任安德里·叶尔马克说，泽连斯基当天与特朗普通电话。 叶尔马克在社交媒体上说，"这是两国总统之间一次非常重要且 ...

智通财经7月5日电，据CCTV国际时讯，当地时间7月4日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发言人纳伊尼表示，如 果以色列再次对伊朗发动袭击，伊朗将不再有任何"红线"。纳伊尼表示，伊朗的"快速反应"打乱了敌人 的计划；他还强调，需要观察战争的目标才能知道谁赢谁输。 伊朗称若以再发动袭击伊将不设红线 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the expertise of Dr. Han Zhongxue, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at Shenzhen University, focusing on macroeconomic policies and their implications for China's economic growth [2][3] - Dr. Han has conducted over 20 research projects at national and provincial levels and has published more than 30 academic papers, indicating a strong background in economic research [2] - The article outlines Dr. Han's extensive experience in both government and corporate sectors, which enhances his insights into economic policies and their practical applications [2] Group 2 - The article lists key topics covered in Dr. Han's lectures, including macroeconomic policy analysis, supply-side reforms, and the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on industrial layout [3] - It emphasizes the importance of financial system reforms in China, including the evolution of capital markets and local government financing platforms [3] - Public management topics discussed include game theory in public policy choices and the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on China [3]

Group 1 - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, with significant military actions reported, including the use of drones and missiles [5][6] - Ukraine's President Zelensky emphasized the need for increased pressure on Russia to change its aggressive behavior, indicating that support from partners, especially the US, is crucial [4] - Reports indicate that Russia has launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine, with 539 drones and 11 missiles targeting Kyiv, resulting in injuries and damage to infrastructure [5][6] Group 2 - The US is reportedly considering enhancing Ukraine's air defense capabilities in response to the escalating attacks from Russia [3] - There are concerns regarding Russia's production of chemical weapons for use in Ukraine, with calls for stricter sanctions from the Netherlands [6] - Germany is planning to implement a six-month voluntary military service to bolster its reserve forces amid the ongoing conflict [6]

由于特朗普政府最新关税威胁引发风险资产抛售，美国股指期货遭挫，欧洲各国股指普跌。美国计划对AI芯片出口设限，欧洲芯片股普跌。避险情绪回 升，黄金一度涨近20美元，油价因最近增产消息下跌。 7月4日美国独立日假期休市，当天美股美债现货市场休市： 欧股盘前，华尔街见闻报道，特朗普警告贸易伙伴，他将发关税函，税率可能从60%-70%到10%-20%。贸易紧张局势升温，避险货币日元、瑞郎升值走强， 黄金一度涨近0.6%。欧股开盘下跌，德指DAX30跌0.3%，法国CAC40指数跌逾0.5%。 欧股盘中，据央视，中国商务部宣布对欧盟白兰地征收反倾销税。消息后人头马君度股价盘中下跌7.2%、创2月3日以来日内最大跌幅，尾盘回升收涨2%。 报道称，美国计划在AI芯片方面对马来西亚设限。欧股跌幅扩大，欧洲芯片股普跌，阿斯麦盘中跌超3%。美股三大指数期货全线跌超0.5%。 周五美股现货市场闭市，标普500指数期货下跌0.6%，欧洲蓝筹股指STOXX 50跌逾1%。欧洲芯片股普跌，阿斯麦控股跌约2.6%。德国股指和意大利银行板 块本周跌超1%，英国股指累涨约0.3%，丹麦股指累涨约1.4%。 美国股指期货： 纽约尾盘，标普500 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States has threatened to impose a 17% tariff on EU agricultural exports, escalating trade tensions ahead of a deadline for a trade agreement [1] Group 1: Trade Conflict - The U.S. has made a last-minute demand for a trade agreement with the EU, threatening a 20% tariff on all EU goods if no agreement is reached [1] - EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic received the U.S. demand during a meeting in Washington and communicated it to the ambassadors of the 27 member states [1] - EU Commission President von der Leyen expressed hope for a "principle agreement" to allow continued negotiations before a final deal is reached [1]

徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 地缘冲突降温， 成本支撑转弱 聚烯烃月报 从业资格号：F03115061 2025/07/04 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号： F03097315 交易咨询号： Z0020397 品种观点 表1：月度品种观点 | 月逻辑 | 策略 | 日期 | 6月前三周主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 6月13日 | 中东局势再次升级，以色列轰炸伊朗多处设施，原油价格本周大幅走强。中国地炼 | | | | | 利润回落，开工下降，丙烯供应量再次回落。LL-PP价差或已筑底，09合约LL计划 | | 政策端：伊以冲突主导原油冲高回落，地缘冲 | | | 投放产能110万吨，09合约PP计划投放产能370万吨（6月计划投产220万吨），因此 | | 突降温后，聚烯烃交易回归基本面逻辑。 | | | 6月投产错配最大，预计6月LL-PP价差或将加速走阔。 | | 成本端：油制利润及PDH制利润修复。 | | | | | 供应端：6月聚烯烃投产压力较大，但下半年聚 | 套利策略， | | | | 乙烯投产压力 ...

以下为核心资产走势： 美股三大指数期货全线跌超0.5%。 欧股普跌，德股跌约0.7%、英股均跌超0.3%，法股跌超0.9%。 日经225指数收涨0.1%。日本东证指数收跌0.04%。韩国首尔综合指数收跌2%。 美元指数跌0.2%，英镑基本持平，欧元涨约0.2%，韩元涨超0.2%，新台币基本持平。日元升值约0.4%，瑞士法郎涨超0.2%。 7月9日谈判截止日前，特朗普加大关税威胁力度，加剧市场紧张情绪，导致美股期货、欧股跌幅扩大、其中受贸易影响大的矿业 和汽车股跌幅最大。亚洲股市震荡下跌后收平，加密货币，美元指数也走弱。避险资产如日元、瑞士法郎、黄金小幅上涨。其他 资产中，OPEC+预计大幅增产，油价走低。美股和美债市场因7月4日独立日假期休市。 欧股普跌，德股跌约0.7%、英股均跌超0.3%，法股跌超0.9%。 | ■ 德国DAX30 | 23,844.72 | 23,868.83 | 23,791.97 | -57.47 | -0.24% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 脂 英国富时100 | 8,792.53 | 8.797.40 | 8,789.93 ...