Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and five other departments issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, aiming to meet diverse financial service needs in the consumption sector [1] - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate and optimize credit products while increasing support for eligible consumption industry entities through various loan types [1] - The integration of technology such as the internet and big data with consumer finance is promoted to streamline the application, approval, and disbursement processes for online consumer credit [1] Group 2 - Structural monetary policy tools are reinforced to incentivize financial institutions to issue loans to key service consumption sectors, including retail, hospitality, and education [2] - A special re-lending quota of 500 billion yuan is established for service consumption, allowing eligible financial institutions to apply for re-lending based on the principal of loans issued [2] - Support for bond market financing is increased, encouraging qualified enterprises in cultural, tourism, and education sectors to issue bonds to raise funds [2] Group 3 - Equity financing is actively promoted for quality enterprises in the consumption industry chain through methods such as public listings and private placements [3] - Social capital is encouraged to invest more in key service consumption areas, with a focus on long-term and patient capital to meet financing needs for long-cycle consumption industries [3] - The issuance of consumer ETFs and other specialized investment products is encouraged to enhance investment opportunities in the consumption sector [3]

港中大（深圳）经管学院副院长、深圳高等金融研究院副院长艾春荣教授致开幕辞，他简单介绍了学校近些年来的发展，并对各位与会嘉宾的到来表示热 烈欢迎。他指出："人工智能（AI）与大数据技术的迅猛发展正深刻改变计量经济学研究范式，诸多前沿议题亟待学界共同攻坚。"他期待大家在为期两天 的研讨会中深度解构计量经济学新方法、新趋势，共探该领域的新疆域。 论文研讨 6月19日 威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校Yong Cai教授及其合著者的研究，针对断点回归设计（RDD）在存在溢出效应（Spillover Effect）时的适用性进行了理论扩展。 传统RDD方法假设处理单位之间不存在相互影响，但在实际应用（如政治宣传或地理边界相关政策评估）中，邻近个体常因交流或模仿产生溢出效应。 该研究在"线性均值形式"（Linear-in-Mean）溢出效应假设框架下，系统推导了RDD估计量的渐近性质。结果表明，RDD所识别的效应取决于溢出半径与 回归带宽的相对大小：当溢出半径远大于带宽时，识别的是直接效应；当带宽远大于溢出半径时，识别的是总效应；若两者相近，则估计值为时间效应。 为实现效应分离，研究提出在局部回归中引入邻里影响变量，从而提升因果推 ...

半年度报告——股指期货 波动压平下寻找结构性机会 [★Ta2b0l2e5_S下um半m年a国ry]内经济展望：经济平稳增长 股 外需：出口增速下滑但存在韧性。美国对华关税不确定性大，且 自身需求收缩。但非美国家对中国出口支撑加大将形成对冲。 内需：经济新动能扩张和老动能走弱并存。政策如何发力成为下 半年看点。财政政策更侧重消费、生育、养老补贴等方向以及新 质生产力投资扩容。货币政策预计仍旧是跟随式降息且更侧重结 构性货币政策工具。消费方面存在补贴加码的需求。而地产转弱 拖累经济，下半年需加大止跌回稳的政策呵护力度。 通胀：看点仍在供给侧。若能加快转型升级、优化产业布局、加 指 强市场监管，则有望在四季度低基数下实现跌幅收窄。 期 ★2025 下半年 A 股展望：上有顶下有底，行情呈结构性 货 今年是典型的风险偏好驱动市场上行的一年。国内科技新兴产业 的爆发为这一过程加速，国家队等救市资金的入场形成了负β截 断效应，支撑了高风险偏好资金的持续活跃。当前 A 股各指数的 估值水平已经不低，且盈利预期依然在低位徘徊，故指数上行存 在压力。在居民存款入市的初始阶段，我们预计下半年 A 股市场 延续分化特征，即大盘指数 ...

Core Insights - Cluely, an AI cheating tool company, recently raised $15 million in funding led by a16z, despite its controversial background [1][15] - The company aims to revolutionize human-AI interaction by integrating AI into everyday tasks rather than confining it to chat interfaces [8][29] - Cluely's marketing strategy focuses on viral content creation and maintaining a strong online presence to capture user attention [10][50] Funding and Growth - Cluely completed its $15 million funding round in just a few hours, attributed to the founder's strong execution and ability to generate attention [7][17] - The company has a unique approach to growth, emphasizing the importance of distribution channels over the product itself [17][21] - Cluely's revenue model includes a subscription service priced at $20 per month for consumers and customized contracts for enterprise clients, starting at seven figures [43][46] Product and Technology - The product features a semi-transparent overlay that allows users to interact with AI while performing other tasks, aiming for a seamless user experience [8][29] - The core technical challenge involves "context stitching," which integrates screen content, voice, and system prompts to provide accurate responses [9][37] - Cluely's application is particularly effective in sales and customer service scenarios, where it can provide real-time assistance without being detected [40][41] Marketing and User Engagement - Cluely employs a team of 50 user-generated content creators to produce engaging content for platforms like TikTok and Instagram, driving viral marketing [10][50] - The company aims to create a cultural phenomenon around its product, making it a topic of conversation among users [11][79] - Cluely's marketing strategy is designed to ensure that the brand remains memorable and relevant in the fast-paced digital landscape [11][80] Company Culture and Structure - Cluely promotes a unique company culture where employees live and work together, fostering a collaborative environment [11][70] - The team consists of top engineers and creators, emphasizing the need for individuals who can either build the product or generate attention [71][75] - The company's operational model is designed to prioritize rapid growth and adaptability in a competitive market [48][70]

海外经济：动能趋弱 美国经济内生动能趋弱。 亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速回落0.4pct至3.4%。 个人消费（PCE）增速回落0.6pct至1.9%，主要来自服务分项（1.5%）拖累；私人投资（不含库存）增速回落 0.8pct至0.4%，地产（-4.4%）及建筑（-3.4%）分项加速收缩。 就业形势依然稳健。 周频首次申领失业金人数回落0.3万至24.5万，符合季节性水平。 中东局势恶化增加通胀 压力。 Truflation日频通胀指数上行8bp至2.14%。 财政政策保持扩张立场。 周频财政盈余达到$185亿，弱于季节性水平，财政力度稳定强于历史同期。 货币政策保持观望立场。 美联储于6月议息会议按兵不动，点阵图显示7/18位委员预测年内无法降息，2/18位 委员预测降息1次（25bp），8/18位委员预测降息2次（50bp），2/18位官员预测降息3次（75bp）。 由于地缘冲突主要在周末激化，上周海外市场表现较为平淡，美元小幅反弹，美债利率震荡，黄金高位回落， 人民币延续偏稳行情。 美股方面，上周美股基本持平上涨0.1%。我们认为关税冲击最大的阶段已经过去，美股较大可能 ...

固收 - 下半年利率债展望：等待破局，以小做大 20250622 摘要 若延续当前政策定力，债市存在进一步做多空间，央行或年底再次降息， 并配合增量财政刺激政策，此组合操作对债市影响偏中性。需关注政策 变化对债市的影响。 外部关税的负面影响可能低于市场预期，出口下滑确定性增加，但关税 对宏观经济的不确定性和负面影响低于去年三四季度。贸易战采取高举 轻放策略，最终影响或低于预期。 三季度投资核心是新型政策性金融工具，总规模预计 5,000 亿，其中 1,000 亿用于民营投资，放大效应明显，有望推动项目快速落地，对 GDP 产生托底作用。关注政策工具的实际效果。 全年 GDP 增速维持 5%左右可期，通过配合三季度投资释放效果，四季 度消费找补来实现。今年两会已批 3,000 亿促消费资金，目前推进了 1,600 亿，还剩余 1,300 亿，去年四季度投放 1,500 亿拉动了 1.2 万亿 增长。 Q&A 下半年债券市场的走势预测是什么？ 预计下半年债券市场将延续宽幅震荡的走势。根据基本面和模型拟合，10 年期 国债收益率上限为 1.8%，下限为 1.5%。三季度债市胜率可能逐步提升，需关 注 7 月底中央会 ...

Core Insights - The oilseed and oil industry is significantly influenced by natural factors and international market trends, leading to substantial price volatility, which impacts upstream and downstream sectors as well as daily life [1] - The futures market provides effective risk management tools for oilseed and oil-related enterprises, with the introduction of various derivatives like futures and options for rapeseed oil and meal [1][4] - The increasing maturity of the futures market has led to more companies actively using these tools to stabilize operations and manage risks [2] Group 1: Risk Management - Companies utilize futures contracts to hedge against price fluctuations, ensuring stable raw material supply and controllable costs [2] - The integration of futures tools with spot operations allows companies to build more resilient business models and optimize resource allocation [2][3] - The "basis trading" strategy helps companies synchronize sales and raw material procurement, effectively mitigating risks from price volatility [3] Group 2: Industry Collaboration - Futures and options products promote collaborative development across the oilseed and oil industry, with futures prices serving as a key reference for production planning [4] - Farmers can secure sales prices through forward contracts with processing companies, ensuring stable income [4] - The collaborative approach among industry players fosters a risk-sharing mechanism, enhancing competitiveness and ensuring the supply of essential agricultural products [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange aims to continuously support industry enterprises in effectively utilizing futures tools to stabilize the development of the supply chain [5]

债券研究 【债券周报】 新型政策性金融工具，进展如何？ ——债券周报 20250622 ❖ 一、新型政策性金融工具，进展如何？ 证 券 研 究 报 告 二季度固投增速放缓，下半年外部不确定性之下，稳投资的必要性在上升。4 月政治局会议提出设立新型政策性金融工具，对于工具带来的宽信用效果，市 场关注度较高。（1）节奏上看，5 月以来地方加速谋划政策性金融工具的项目 储备，短期内工具落地的概率或在上升。根据地方会议信息看，部分省市提到 本轮工具额度为 5000 亿，投向上或涉及 8 个领域 31 个专项，其中科技与消费 基础设施建设的支持或有重点倾斜。（2）效果上看，参考 2022 年经验，工具 额度下达至投放完毕跨度约 2 个月左右、节奏偏快，对信贷、基建投资的撬动 倍数分别在 4.7 倍、10 倍以上。 往后看，三季度或进入宽信用政策效果兑现期，需要关注对债市情绪的影响。 5 月经济数据显示需求侧消费强而投资弱，且 6 月近期出口走弱的迹象初步显 现，逆周期调节有望下半年加力稳投资。根据 5 月地方密集筹备的动向看，短 期新型政策性金融工具额度或有望下达，进而提振数据表现，重点关注三季度 宽信用兑现、7 月政 ...

南都讯 记者谢湘南 6月21日下午，深圳市总工会职工书屋名家讲堂系列首场活动"如何高效玩转 DeepSeek"在南山区爱心大厦火热开讲，线上线下数千名深圳职工共同探索AI工具在工作中的无限可 能。 此次活动特别邀请到复旦大学中国研究院副研究员、数字经济学者刘典担任主讲嘉宾。讲堂上，刘典老 师以深入浅出的方式，结合丰富多样的实际案例，详细剖析了AI工具在不同工作场景中的高效应用方 法。他分享道，在文案创作中，AI工具可以快速生成思路框架和初稿，为创作者提供灵感和参考；在 项目管理里，它能够协助进行任务分配、进度跟踪和风险预警，让项目推进更加有序；在数据分析方 面，AI工具可以快速处理海量数据，挖掘出有价值的信息和趋势，为决策提供有力支持；在市场调研 环节，它能高效收集和分析市场信息，帮助企业精准把握市场动态。 一位从事文案工作的职工兴奋地说："以前我对AI工具的了解只是停留在表面，通过这次讲堂，我才真 正认识到它在文案创作中的巨大潜力。刘典老师分享的技巧和方法非常实用，让我以后在工作中可以更 加高效地完成文案任务，节省大量的时间和精力。"另一位在场职工也感慨道："在如今这个数字化时 代，掌握AI工具已经成为提升 ...

在共享经济浪潮中，共享充电宝行业曾以"便捷续电"为核心价值，在一二线城市掀起风暴。但随着市场饱和与同质化竞争加剧，行业亟需破局之道。2025 年，鲲鹏共享科技以"千城万县计划"为战略支点，将目光投向更广阔的下沉市场，试图通过模式创新与技术赋能，重新定义共享充电宝的边界。这场从"城 市战场"转向"县域经济"的迁徙，不仅关乎企业生存，更折射出共享经济在数字化时代的进化逻辑。 当一二线城市的咖啡馆、商场早已被共享充电宝机柜"填满"，鲲鹏共享科技却选择了一条反常识的道路——2025年初，其正式宣布启动"千城万县计划"，目 标在三年内覆盖1000个县级市与1万个乡镇，构建全球最大的下沉市场共享充电网络。这一计划并非简单复制一线城市模式，而是基于对县域消费场景的深 度洞察：三四线城市用户对"即时充电"的需求同样旺盛，但使用场景更分散，且价格敏感度更高。 鲲鹏的打法是"轻资产+重运营"。通过与本地商超、餐饮店、网吧等中小商户合作，以零押金、分润模式快速铺开设备，同时开发适配县域场景的"迷你机 柜"，降低硬件成本。更关键的是，其自主研发的"鲲鹏智链"系统可实时分析人流热力图，动态调整机柜点位，确保资源高效配置。这一计划背后， ...