鲍威尔警告通胀风险，技术面关键支撑失守，黄金到大幅下跌的时间点了吗？点击查看详细分析！ 相关链接 黄金延续回调，短期趋势如何破局？ ...

金属期权 2025-06-20 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏多盘整，构建做空波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系区间盘整震荡，适合构 建熊市价差组合策略和卖方期权组合策略；（3）贵金属黄金高位盘整，白银多头突破上行，构建牛市价差组合策 略和现货避险策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ...

盯盘神器网页入口 盯盘神器使用指南 现货黄金 盯盘神器·现货黄金：日线布林带中轨组成的最强支撑区能否守住？ 现货黄金再次在亚盘走低，目前已经逼近盯盘神器中显示的最强支撑区（1H）3345-3349，该支撑区涵盖了日线布林带中轨，在 昨天午后的下跌中提供了不错的支撑。若失守，往下的支撑力度均较该区间弱。继续跟踪黄金短线支撑阻力变化可以前往"VIP 专区-盯盘神器"。 ...

周四市场出现了中阴线的杀跌，和前两次那两个阴线不一样，大家知道在前两天前两次市场出现了阴线 下跌，要么当天它理会这么第二天就反弹了，这一次的阴线打下来，很多朋友说周五能不能反弹，或者 下周初能不能起进攻？ 和讯投顾朱超表示，我的判断周四这个低点应该不是最低点，还有新低点出现，为什么？因为量不够， 前两次的那两根大阴线大家可以去看到，分别是当天释放了两市是一个是1.42万亿，一个是1.46万亿， 两天这么大量的成交代表什么？代表往下去跌，该洗的盘洗，干干净净，然后有资金抄底就拉起来，或 者没资金抄底它也能拉起来，因为洗干净了，该释放的风险释放掉，而周四两市加在一起1.2万亿，所 以这样相较于前两天是略有放量，比昨天前天稍微多一点点，但是相较于之前1.42 1.46，显然量能是不 够的，所以市场在这个位置还有一定往下探的动作在，这是第一个。 第二个点大家要注意是分时上，如果大家看会发现有过多次的跌下去，v型反弹，v型反弹看起来挺好 的，好像有力度在里面，但是大家注意到其实白线有反弹，黄线跟着反弹，但力度不大，黄线的力度没 有白线强，没有资金在这个位置明显抄底的动作，所以这里更多的就是短期分析上跌多了有一个小反 弹 ...

日本央行会议纪要：部分成员表示，日本央行必须维持当前极低的实际利率，以支撑经济。 ...

Economic Growth and Consumption - The core viewpoint is that consumption will play a more significant role in driving economic growth this year, with retail sales expected to exceed a 5% growth rate, compared to 3.5% last year [2][5] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest growth rate since 2024 [4][5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [5] Foreign Trade Performance - The total value of goods trade in the first five months was 17.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, indicating better-than-expected foreign trade performance [10] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased significantly by 9.1% and 2.9%, respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% due to tariff increases [10] - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" has contributed to the positive foreign trade data, as companies rushed to export before anticipated tariff hikes [9][10] Service Consumption and Innovation - The shift in consumer demographics, particularly the rise of the post-95 and post-00 generations, is driving demand for emotional value and personalized consumption [6] - Service consumption can be categorized into survival, development, and experiential services, with a focus on promoting experiential services through innovative consumption scenarios [6] - Increasing public service investment and improving income distribution are essential for enhancing overall consumption [8] Policy Recommendations - To address weak price levels and stimulate consumption, targeted policy measures should include improving income distribution and increasing public consumption [8] - The government could consider expanding subsidies from durable goods to service consumption and providing direct consumption subsidies to low-income groups [5][8]

Economic Data Overview - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest growth rate since 2024 [1][2] - For the first five months, China's total import and export value of goods was 17.94 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a sustained growth trend [1][5] Consumer Spending Insights - The growth in consumer spending in May exceeded expectations, driven by policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges and emerging consumption trends like "self-indulgent consumption" [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [2][3] - The retail sales growth is expected to surpass 5% this year, compared to a 3.5% growth in the previous year, as consumption plays a more prominent role in economic growth [2][3] Trade Dynamics - The foreign trade performance in the first five months was better than expected, influenced by "export rushes" and a notable increase in exports to the EU and ASEAN, despite a decline in exports to the US due to tariffs [1][5][6] - Exports to ASEAN and the EU grew by 9.1% and 2.9% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% [5] Policy Recommendations - Future consumption policies could expand from durable goods to service consumption and provide direct subsidies to low-income groups [2][3] - To enhance service consumption, there is a need for innovative and diversified consumption scenarios, integrating new business models and products [3] Inflation and Economic Balance - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in the first five months, indicating a need for policies to promote economic balance and reasonable price recovery [4][5] - The weak price level is attributed to intense competition in investment-driven sectors, income distribution disparities, and underutilized public consumption [4][5] Gold Market Outlook - The outlook for gold prices is characterized by short-term volatility and long-term upward trends, influenced by interest rates, the dollar's performance, and geopolitical risks [8] - Recent trends show a significant increase in gold prices, with a rise of approximately 30% this year, supported by central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves [8]

站稳脚跟的董宇辉，跟老东家东方甄选走到了同一条路上。 6月16日，东方甄选的自营卫生巾上线，14小时销量突破30万包。与此同时，董宇辉也刚刚推出了自营产品帆布包。尽管很多不做电商的公司也会推出印 有自家品牌Logo的帆布包，但种种迹象表明，董宇辉朝已经开始尝试走自营路线。 6月9日晚间，与辉同行直播间上架了一款特殊产品——印有"与辉同行"Logo的帆布包，当晚这款帆布包的销售额在100万-250万元区间。这款帆布包的生 产委托商和其在抖音的销售店铺所属公司均为"兰知春序（西安）科技有限公司"。该公司成立于2024年12月，法人代表、董事兼总经理均为董宇辉。董宇 辉透露，不久后，店铺还会有其他材质的帆布包上线。 这并非董宇辉首次试水自营产品。今年1月，董宇辉就推出第一件自营产品——平安喜乐帆布包，同样由"兰知春序"生产，并在与辉同行直播间销售。 关于帆布包的生产以及后续自营品打造的计划，字母榜向与辉同行方面进行求证，截至发稿，对方尚未回应。 目前董宇辉尚未打造丰富的自营品体系，但连续的动作至少说明，董宇辉已经开始尝试发展自营品牌，并开始掌控供应链环节。 直播公司布局自营品牌意义重大。东方甄选最新财报数据显示，自 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-19 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4471元/吨（较前一交易日变动+71元/吨，幅度+1.61%），EG华东市场现货价 4547元/吨（较前一交易日变动+77元/吨，幅度+1.72%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）88元/吨（环比+3元/ 吨）。上周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，地缘冲突影响下原油价格大幅上行，乙二醇成本端推 动明显。周二阿曼湾三条游轮相撞起火，同时伊朗EG装置停车面进一步扩大，因安全保证停车中，共涉及135万吨 产能，后续恢复进度等待政府通知，乙二醇盘面震荡抬升，继续关注中东地缘冲突演变，以及港口发货影响。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-43美元/吨（环比-3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为150元/吨（环比+33 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为61.6万吨（环比-1.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为56.4万吨（环比-3.4万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.8万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.0万吨，中性，港口库存预计平稳， ...

宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 19 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 多空交织，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 多空僵持，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：低位震荡 核心逻辑：6 月 18 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约小幅下跌 785 元 ...