Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][66]. Core Viewpoints - The sales performance in March 2025 showed continued marginal improvement, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in scale [4][5]. - The decline in new housing prices has narrowed across various city tiers, with first-tier cities experiencing a positive month-on-month price change for five consecutive months [4][20]. - The decline in development investment and funds available to real estate companies has slightly widened [4][39]. - New construction and completion metrics have shown significant fluctuations, but the year-on-year decline has notably narrowed [4][47]. - The report anticipates that future real estate policies will be crucial for stabilizing the market, with potential measures such as inventory reduction policies expected to be gradually implemented [4][62]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, the total sales amount for commercial housing was 20,798 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, while the sales area was 21,869 million square meters, down 3.0% year-on-year [3][5]. - In March alone, the sales amount was 10,539 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and the sales area was 11,123 million square meters, down 0.9% year-on-year [5]. Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment in the first three months of 2025 was 19,904 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, while funds available to real estate companies were 24,729 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year [3][39]. - In March, the development investment was 9,184 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%, and the funds available were 9,152 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year [39]. Construction Metrics - The new construction area in the first three months of 2025 was 12,996 million square meters, down 24.4% year-on-year, while the completion area was 13,060 million square meters, down 14.3% year-on-year [3][47]. - In March, the new construction area was 6,382 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year, and the completion area was 4,296 million square meters, down 11.5% year-on-year [47]. Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing in the first three months of 2025 was 9,510 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [20]. - In March, the average selling price was 9,475 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [20].

Core Insights - The data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a "stop falling and stabilize" trend in the housing market, with both new and second-hand housing prices fluctuating within 1% in March 2025 [1] New Housing Market - Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 29 cities saw new housing prices either increase or remain stable compared to February, with Shanghai showing the highest month-on-month increase of 0.7% [1] - Other cities with notable increases include Hangzhou and Chengdu, both at 0.5%, while cities like Ningbo, Tianjin, Jinan, and Hefei also experienced slight price increases [1] - Year-on-year, only 2 cities reported an increase in new housing prices, with Shanghai at 5.7% and Taiyuan at 1%, while most cities maintained stable prices compared to the same period last year [1] Second-Hand Housing Market - In the second-hand housing market, 14 cities reported either an increase or stable prices month-on-month, with Hangzhou leading at 1%, followed by Beijing at 0.5% and Shanghai at 0.4% [1] - The trend of stabilizing prices is particularly evident in first and second-tier cities [1] Market Structure - There are notable differences in performance across different cities and between new and second-hand housing markets [1] - In Shanghai, new housing prices for properties larger than 144 square meters saw the highest increase, while for second-hand housing, the price increase was most significant for units sized between 90 to 144 square meters [1][2] - In Hangzhou, the most resilient new housing prices were in the 90 to 144 square meter range, while for second-hand housing, the best performance was seen in units smaller than 90 square meters [2] - Taiyuan's new housing prices increased the most for units 90 square meters and below, while the strongest second-hand price performance was in the 90 to 144 square meter category [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [29]. Core Insights - In March 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.2%. The number of cities with declining new home prices was 41, a decrease of 4 from February, with an average decline of 0.29% [6][17]. - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase in both new and second-hand home prices, with new home prices rising by 0.1% and second-hand home prices increasing by 0.2% [6][20]. - Second-tier cities experienced stable new home prices, while second-hand home prices saw a reduced decline of 0.2% [6][20]. - Third-tier cities had a narrowing decline in new home prices of 0.2% and a decrease in second-hand home prices by 0.3% [6][20]. - The report suggests that from mid-April, attention should be focused on the real estate sector, as measures to stabilize the market are expected to accelerate, with potential policy easing in core cities [6][20]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In March 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1%, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.2%. The number of cities with declining new home prices was 41, with an average decline of 0.29% [6][17]. - First-tier cities showed a month-on-month increase in new home prices by 0.1% and second-hand home prices by 0.2% [6][20]. - Second-tier cities had stable new home prices, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.2% [6][20]. - Third-tier cities saw a decline in new home prices by 0.2% and second-hand home prices by 0.3% [6][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four main lines: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [6]. 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [6]. 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes, such as Gemdale Corporation and Longfor Group [6]. 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, like Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia [6].

2025 年 04 月 15 日 宏观深度研究 宏观深度研究 最近一年走势 《政府工作报告的六大政策内涵*夏磊》—— 2025-03-06 《2 月 PMI 数据点评：PMI 出现一些积极的新变化 *夏磊》——2025-03-03 2025 年一季度，房地产市场呈现止跌回稳的积极态势。 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 房地产市场止跌回稳新特征 随着政策大力支持和居民住房需求的释放，市场修复明显，房地产 市场出现新特征。 二手房成为市场回暖的主要动力 二手房交易活跃度显著高于新房，成为市场回暖的主要动力。2025 年 1-3 月，一线城市新房网签面积同比上涨 6%，北上深二手房网签 量同比上涨 45%，北上深二手房成交占比达 64%。以上海为例，3 月二手房日均成交达 947 套，较 2024 年 12 月的高点下降 1%。相 比之下，新房市场整体动能趋缓，上海 3 月新房日均成交相较 2024 年 12 月高点下降 28%。 二手房交易是居民置换链条中的重要一环，其率先回暖可带动房地 产市场整体复苏。二手房价格稳定，会改 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The real estate market is showing signs of improvement with sales continuing to recover and various policy relaxations being introduced across multiple regions [1] - The report highlights a significant increase in year-on-year sales for both new and second-hand homes, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The real estate sector saw a decline of 1.3% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which fell by 1.8% and 2.0%, respectively [62] - In the new housing market, 36 cities recorded a total transaction area of 2.355 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 28.4% but a year-on-year increase of 17.0% [13] - The second-hand housing market in 15 cities saw a transaction area of 1.619 million square meters, down 21.7% month-on-month but up 56.9% year-on-year [21] 2. Inventory and Absorption - The cumulative inventory of new homes in 13 cities is 76.621 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [35] - The absorption cycle for new homes in these cities is 15.8 months, showing a slight improvement compared to previous periods [35] 3. Land Market - From March 31 to April 6, 2025, the land transaction area across 100 cities was 1.974 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15.5% but a year-on-year increase of 103.0% [50] - The average land price was 825 RMB per square meter, down 69.0% month-on-month and 12.4% year-on-year [50] 4. Investment Recommendations - For real estate development, the report recommends companies such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, with a focus on companies with strong shareholder backing [8] - In property management, recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, and Poly Property [8] - For real estate brokerage, the report suggests focusing on leading platforms like Beike and regional leaders like I Love My Home [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in land prices in Hangzhou, with the city witnessing a rapid increase in land auction prices, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [1][5][9]. Group 1: Land Price Trends - Hangzhou's land price has seen a record increase from 77,409 yuan per square meter to 88,029 yuan per square meter within three days, marking a significant rise in land value [4][5]. - The recent land auction on March 28, 2025, resulted in a total revenue of approximately 14.09 billion yuan, with an average premium rate of 49.2% across the sold plots [5][6]. - The new land king in Hangzhou was acquired by Jianfa for 3.4 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 115%, highlighting the competitive nature of the land market [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The land market in Hangzhou has shown a noticeable increase in activity, with developers actively participating in auctions, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6][9]. - The government has strategically managed land supply, creating a competitive environment for developers, which has contributed to the rising land prices [6][7]. - The trend of frequent "land kings" in Hangzhou is attributed to a combination of limited land supply and strong demand from developers, particularly in core urban areas [9][11]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The increase in land prices in Hangzhou is part of a broader trend observed in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, where similar "land kings" have emerged [3][14]. - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with improved transaction volumes and a narrowing decline in housing prices across major cities [13][14]. - Developers are increasingly focusing on core urban areas, leading to heightened competition for prime land, which is reflected in the rising auction prices [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic outlook for the real estate market in 2025, highlighting a potential "small spring" in the housing market, driven by improved market conditions and supportive government policies [2][10][52]. Group 1: Market Recovery Indicators - Many respondents express optimism about the "small spring" in the real estate market this year, with expectations of a "big spring" in March based on current market activity in Shenzhen [2][52]. - The real estate market has shown signs of recovery since the fourth quarter of last year, with first-tier cities leading the way, followed by second-tier cities, and eventually lower-tier cities [12][26]. - In February, the second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou reached 5,977 units, a year-on-year increase of 135% [7]. Group 2: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - A series of supportive policies introduced since September 2024 have created a favorable environment for the real estate market, with over 760 regulatory measures implemented nationwide [11][34]. - The government work report on March 5 emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, indicating a commitment to further policy support [28]. - The "combination punch" of policies has been described as the strongest ever, aimed at stabilizing the market and restoring confidence among buyers and developers [35][36]. Group 3: Transaction and Price Trends - In February, first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai saw significant increases in transaction volumes, with Beijing achieving over 1,000 second-hand home transactions daily [8]. - The average new home prices in first-tier cities rose by 0.1% in January, marking a continuous increase for two months [23]. - The land market has also shown signs of recovery, with competitive bidding for quality land parcels, indicating improved market expectations [9][42]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If the anticipated "small spring" materializes, the current market recovery cycle could extend beyond six months, transitioning from a policy goal to a reality [13]. - The article suggests that the recovery of the real estate market is closely tied to the performance of second-hand home prices and new home sales, which are critical indicators of market health [50][60]. - The ongoing recovery in the real estate market is expected to positively influence related sectors, including financing and land acquisition [39][41].

南方财经全媒体集团全国两会报道组 作 者丨周潇枭 编 辑丨陈洁 3月5日，十四届全国人大三次会议举行开幕会，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告。 政府工作报告指出，2 0 2 5年经济增长预期目标为5%左右，既是稳就业、防风险、惠民生的需 要，也有经济增长潜力和有利条件支撑，并与中长期发展目标相衔接，突出迎难而上、奋发有 为的鲜明导向。居民消费价格涨幅2%左右，目的在于通过各项政策和改革共同作用，改善供 求关系，使价格总水平处在合理区间。 政府工作报告明确，要实施更加积极的财政政策，实施适度宽松的货币政策。政府工作报告对 今年重点工作进行部署，包括大力提振消费，提高投资效益，因地制宜发展新质生产力，深入 实施科教兴国战略，推动标志性改革举措加快落地，扩大高水平对外开放，有效防范化解重点 领域风险等。 如何看待今年5%左右目标的设定？为何强调推动价格处于合理区间？如何大力提振消费？当 前应推动哪些标志性改革举措落地？如何有效地防范化解地方债务风险？带着这些问题，2 1 世纪经济报道记者专访了全国政协委员、中共中央党校（国家行政学院）教授韩保江。 《2 1世纪》： 面对外部环境的较高不确定性，今年完成5 %左右的目标是 ...

今年发展主要预期目标 国内生产总值增长 中国政府网 www.gov.cn 国务院客户端 国务院 State Council App 今年赤字率拟按 4%左右安排。 国务院 国务院客户端 中国政府网 State Council App 拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3万亿元、比上年增 加3000亿元。 拟发行特别国债5000 亿元,支持国有大型商 业银行补充资本。 国务院客户端 国务院 State Council App 拟安排地方政府专项债 券4.4万亿元、比上年 增加5000亿元,重点 用于投资建设、土地收 储和收购存量商品房、 消化地方政府拖欠企业 账款等。 国务院客户端 报告 优化和创新结构性货 币政策工具，更大力 度促进楼市股市健康 发展，加大对科技创 新、绿色发展、提振 消费以及民营、小微 企业等的支持。 中国政府网 = 国务院各户端 State Council App 安排超长期特别 国债3000亿元 支持消费品以旧 换新。 国务院客户端 国务院 中国政府网 State Council App 建立未来产业投 入增长机制,培 育生物制造、量 子科技、具身智 能、6G等未来 产业。 中国政府网 ● 国务 ...

证券研究报告 房地产 地产呈现多维度积极信号共振 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 02 日│中国内地 行业周报（第九周） 积极信号共振，迈过"最坏时刻" 随着 24 年 9 月政治局会议的召开，在"止跌回稳"和"稳住楼市股市"目 标下，政策加速落地，我们发现房地产多个维度正在呈现积极信号共振， 2024 年以来市场关注的房价下行、信用风险、库存高企等问题都有了一定 的解法：1、房地产头部企业风险外溢的担忧逐步缓解；2、相较于 2024 年 的整体性房价调整，2025 年有望看到结构性"止跌回稳"；3、高库存问题 在"去库存"政策落地下将得到一定改善。 行情回顾 上周沪深 300 指数下跌 2.22%，房地产开发板块上涨 2.22%，恒生指数下 跌 2.29%，中华内房股指数 CNY 上涨 8.20%，恒生物业服务及管理指数上 涨 5.93%。 重点公司及动态 我们看好重点城市区域市场的量价回升，以及在对应区域拥有储备或新获取 资源的房企的估值修复，同时业绩与现金流稳健的物管公司亦有望受益于市 场止跌回稳。重点推荐：A 股开发，城投控股、城建发展、滨江集团、招 商蛇口、新城控股。 风险提示：行业政策风险；行业下 ...