导语 ： 前美联储理事凯文·沃什，国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特，财政部长斯科特·贝森特， 都是潜在人选 。 一些人还提到了前世界银行行长 大卫·马尔帕斯 （David Malpass）和美联储理事 克里斯托弗·沃勒 （Christopher Waller）作为竞争者。 由于新主席要等到明年5月才会正式上任，若在夏季或秋季宣布人选，时间将远早于传统的三到四 个月过渡期。提前宣布人选可能会使新任主席在鲍威尔任期结束前，像"副驾驶"一样影响市场对利 率走向的预期，试图在背后左右货币政策。 当被问及特朗普是否考虑提前宣布美联储主席人选时，白宫回应称，美联储应该实施促进增长的货 币政策。 白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）表示："政府目前正在为推动经济、就业和投资增长奠定基础 ——包括通过那部'伟大的宏大法案'，是时候让货币政策与这一议程相配合，支持美国的经济复兴 了。" 特朗普总统因对美联储采取的 缓慢降息 政策感到不满，正考虑提前宣布接替现任主席 杰罗姆·鲍威 尔 （Jerome Powell）的人选，尽管鲍威尔的任期还剩下11个月。 据知情人士透露，特朗普最近一直在考虑提前在9月或10月选出并宣布鲍威 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's criticism of current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his intention to announce a successor as early as September, which would break historical transition norms [1][4]. - Potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman include Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Scott Bessent, and David Malpass, each with varying degrees of alignment with Trump's economic policies [2]. - Trump's plan to announce a successor earlier than usual aims to create a "shadow Fed Chairman" to influence market expectations regarding future interest rates and apply pressure on Powell [4][5]. Group 2 - The proposed early announcement of a successor would establish a new model for Federal Reserve leadership transitions, allowing the nominee to influence market expectations while in a "Chairman-in-waiting" role [4]. - Trump's ongoing public pressure on Powell, including threats of dismissal, has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, challenging the traditional understanding that a Chairman would not be removed without misconduct [5][7]. - Powell's recent testimony highlighted concerns about rising inflation due to tariffs, indirectly responding to Trump's trade policies and interest rate demands, indicating a potential conflict between political pressures and economic data [8]. Group 3 - Analysts warn that Trump's actions may set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence and credibility if future leaders prioritize political preferences over economic indicators [9]. - The Trump administration's legal challenges to the independence of federal agencies further complicate the situation, as it seeks to empower the president to dismiss officials from independent institutions [9].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is increasingly dissatisfied with the Federal Reserve's inaction on interest rate cuts, prompting him to consider announcing the next Fed chair candidate as early as September or October [1] Group 1: Potential Candidates for Fed Chair - Trump is considering several candidates for the next Fed chair, including former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, current governor Christopher Waller, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, former World Bank president David Malpass, and current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [1] - Warsh has a hawkish policy inclination and has criticized the Fed's use of quantitative easing [4] - Waller is the first decision-maker advocating for a rate cut as early as July, believing that tariff-driven inflation is temporary [4][5] Group 2: Fed's Interest Rate Decision Dynamics - There is significant division among Fed officials regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with some supporting a cut as early as July [2] - Powell has expressed caution regarding rate cuts, indicating that the administration's tariff policies could lead to a temporary rise in inflation, which necessitates a careful approach [2][3] Group 3: Risks of Announcing a New Fed Chair - Announcing a new Fed chair candidate prematurely could undermine the current chair Powell's authority and challenge the Fed's independence [1][5] - Candidates may face pressure to align with Trump's views, risking their credibility and effectiveness if they are seen as merely catering to the president [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's frustration with the Federal Reserve's slow interest rate cuts, prompting him to consider an early nomination for the next Fed Chair to undermine the current Chair, Jerome Powell [1][2][3] - Potential candidates for the next Fed Chair include former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller [2][3] - Trump has expressed his intention to announce a successor before Powell's term ends in 11 months, which could influence investor expectations regarding future interest rate movements [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has proposed a plan to relax key capital rules for large banks, allowing them to release some of their capital to enhance the resilience of the U.S. Treasury market [5][6] - The proposed changes would lower the capital requirements for bank holding companies from 5% to a range of 3.5% to 4.5%, and for bank subsidiaries from 6% to the same range [5][7] - This adjustment is expected to reduce core capital held by large banks by approximately $13 billion at the holding company level and $210 billion at the subsidiary level, providing banks with greater flexibility in capital allocation [7]

Core Viewpoint - Trump is increasingly dissatisfied with the Federal Reserve's inaction on interest rate cuts, prompting him to consider announcing his choice for the next Fed chair earlier than expected [1][2]. Group 1: Potential Candidates - Trump is considering several candidates for the next Fed chair, including former Fed governor Kevin Walsh, National Economic Council director Hassett, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, former World Bank president Malpass, and current Fed governor Waller [1][2][6]. - Walsh is viewed as a leading contender, having previously discussed the position with Trump, while Hassett has expressed disinterest in the role [3][5]. - Mnuchin's ability to navigate chaotic tariff policies has made him popular on Wall Street, and he has not ruled out the idea of becoming Fed chair [5][6]. Group 2: Implications of Early Announcement - Announcing a new Fed chair earlier than the usual transition period could allow the nominee to influence market expectations regarding future interest rate paths [2][7]. - However, this approach carries risks, as the incoming chair may face challenges in publicly criticizing future Fed colleagues and could be perceived as a sycophant by market participants [7][8]. Group 3: Current Fed Chair's Position - Current Fed chair Powell has reiterated that political considerations will not influence Fed decisions and emphasized a cautious approach to potential rate cuts [2][10]. - Powell has not indicated whether he will leave the Fed board after his term ends, focusing instead on maintaining economic strength and controlling inflation [10].

特朗普，又盯上了美联储！ 据外媒最新消息，美国总统特朗普对美联储缓慢降息的作风感到恼火，这促使他考虑提前提名下任美联储主 席，以削弱现任主席鲍威尔的影响力。 据报道，潜在候选人包括美联储前理事凯文·沃什、白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、美国财政部长贝森 特、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒等。 美联储的另外一个举动也引发市场关注。当地时间周三，美联储发布有关放松关键银行资本规则的计划，允许 大型银行释放它们所持有的部分资本金，以增强美债市场的韧性。 特朗普正考虑提前提名下任美联储主席 特朗普正在考虑提前提名下任美联储主席，以削弱鲍威尔的影响力。目前鲍威尔作为美联储主席的任期还有11 个月。 据央视新闻援引《华尔街日报》报道， 知情人士透露，特朗普考虑在9月或10月之前选定并宣布鲍威尔的继任 者 ，"而特朗普对鲍威尔的愤怒可能会导致他在今年夏天的某个时候更早地宣布继任者人选"。特朗普考虑美 联储前理事凯文·沃什和白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特。 此外，知情人士透露，有人推荐财政部长贝森特作为潜在候选人；其他竞争者包括世界银行前行长马尔帕斯和 美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。 据悉，由于新任主席要到明年5月才上任， ...

不过，特朗普没有说出可能接替美联储主席一职的具体人选，也没有列出做出决定的时间表。 鲍威尔的主席任期将于2026年5月结束。 据此前报道，主要竞争者包括前美联储理事凯文·沃什、国家经济委员会主任哈塞特、现任美 联储理事沃勒以及财政部长贝森特。 特朗普此前多次批评鲍威尔不降息，称美联储不愿降息正在让联邦政府损失数千亿美元的利 息，并提出解雇他或尽快任命继任者的想法，尽管特朗普几乎经常收回这些威胁。 当地时间周三， 美国总统特朗普再次抨击了美联储主席鲍威尔，并表示现在他心里有三到四 位候选人 ，可能会成为下一任美联储主席。 在海牙北约峰会期间，当被问及他是否正在面试接替鲍威尔的人选时，特朗普回答说："是 的，我心里有三四个我认为会选的人。我的意思是，幸运的是，鲍威尔很快就结束任期了，我 认为他很糟糕。" 他表示： "他(鲍威尔)是一个普通的人……就他所做的事情来说，他的智商很低。实际上，我 认为他是一个非常愚蠢的人。" 鲍威尔补充道，他和美联储的许多官员都预计通胀很快就会上升，因此并不急于降低借贷成 本。 美国商务部长周三表示："鲍威尔，你的工作是帮助美国人，而不是伤害他们，所以做好你的 工作，在下次会议上降低我 ...

美东时间6月25日，美国总统特朗普表示， 已将下任美联储主席的候选人缩小至 三至四人，暗示他可能在鲍威尔任期结束前提前公布接替人选。 早在本月初， 特朗普就曾透露拟尽快宣布决定。当被问及热门人选、前美联储理事凯文·沃什 时，他回应称："对他的评价很高。" // 特朗普：鲍威尔"很快就要走了" // 特朗普6月25日表示："我知道我要选谁了，大概在三四个人之中。"他还直言不 讳地批评现任美联储主席鲍威尔："他很快就要走了，幸好，因为我觉得他非常 糟糕。"这已不是特朗普首次暗示对鲍威尔的不满，早在本月中旬，他就曾在公 开场合称"或许我该改变不炒掉他（鲍威尔）的想法"。 尽管鲍威尔本人坚持将在2026年5月任期结束前留任，美联储目前也未透露任何 政策调整意向，但特朗普明显希望尽早"定音"，以在市场和政策制定层施加影 响。 // 热门人选浮出水面 // 值得一提的是，据新浪财经等媒体消息，八年前特朗普面试沃什时，曾多次称赞 他的英俊外表；但在选择了头发花白、比沃什大17岁的鲍威尔后，特朗普曾私 下告诉身边人，他觉得当时47岁的沃什看起来过于年轻，不适合这个职位。 2、斯科特·贝森特：华尔街青睐的黑马 据新浪财经等媒体 ...

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a new low since February 2022, currently at 97.48, with a year-to-date decline of 10.1% [1] - President Trump is considering an early nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair to diminish the influence of the current Chair, Jerome Powell, who has 11 months remaining in his term [1] - The new Chair is expected to take office in May next year, and an announcement this summer or fall would be significantly earlier than the traditional three to four months transition period, potentially affecting investor expectations on future interest rate trends [1]

美国总统特朗普据悉考虑在9月或10月选出新一届美联储主席。 ...